shows/predicts what & when the next OTF benchmark will be, based on announcements as well as historic data.
You can also scroll down to Historic Benchmark Dates, which will give you the dates of all historic OTF benchmark/signature workouts.
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Upcoming Benchmark Projection
Next benchmark is going to be 12-minute Run 🏃 , on 11/12/2024.
Type
Projection 🤘
Go to Planner
Days SINCE last benchmark
Historic Minimum
Historic Average
i
Coming soon?
# Data Pts
Type
Projection 🤘
Go to Planner
Days SINCE last benchmark
Historic Minimum
Historic Average
i
Coming soon?
# Data Pts
1
12-minute Run 🏃
Nov 12
Go
95 days
74 days
137 days
18
2
12 Days of Fitness 🎄
Dec 1
Go
345 days
365 days
365 days
6
3
Inferno 🔥
Dec 8
Go
90 days
85 days
118 days
11
4
Everest 🏔
Jan 10
Go
117 days
81 days
178 days
13
5
2000m Row 🚣♀️
Jan 17
Go
67 days
70 days
135 days
18
6
Catch Me If You Can 👮♀️
Jan 24
Go
80 days
102 days
155 days
13
7
500m Row 🚣♀️
Jan 28
Go
34 days
61 days
113 days
22
8
1-mile Run 🏃
Feb 7
Go
25 days
56 days
114 days
21
9
Infinity ∞
Mar 14
Go
61 days
161 days
185 days
9
10
200m Row 🚣♀️
Mar 31
Go
3 days
78 days
144 days
17
11
Dri-Tri 🏃 🚣♀️ 🏋️
Apr 30
Go
51 days
164 days
222 days
11
12
Mayhem 🤯
May 17
Go
176 days
363 days
364 days
3
13
Hell Week 👻
Oct 24
Go
17 days
365 days
365 days
5
There are no rows in this table
“Prediction” Methodology 🧠
Historic Analysis
For each benchmark, computes the # of days since the previous benchmark of the same type.
For each benchmark type, computes the historic minimum, average, median & maximum, grouped by benchmark of the same type.
When computing historic averages, the min & max values are considered outliers and have been dropped from the calculation to get a more representative average.
Prediction
Using today’s date, compute the # of days since the last benchmark of the same type.
Coming Soon? 🔥
🔥🔥🔥 — If the benchmark has been officially announced, or if the # of days is greater than historic 95th-percentile.
🔥🔥 — If the # of days is greater than historic average.
🔥 — If the # of days is greater than historic 5th-percentile
Projection 🤘
Either using the benchmark date reported by r/orangetheory’s monthly post, or taking the last benchmark date of the same type, and add the average of the historic average & median to project the date.
If the projection is within this month, but it hasn’t been announced yet, projection will be pushed to the beginning of next month.
Confidence Level
With the exception of benchmark officially announced by OTF, due to the sparsity of benchmarks, we have yet to have sufficient data points to support any of the prediction. 😉
On a serious note, while the prediction might not be perfect, the data collected under the Benchmark Date 💿 section below can give you an idea on the # of days between each benchmark. ✅