(formerly known as Benchmark Predictor) predicts what the next OTF benchmark will be, based on historic data.
You can also scroll down to Historic Benchmark Dates, which will give you the dates of all historic OTF benchmark/signature workouts.
💡 The predictor looks better on your tablet, laptop & desktop.
Upcoming Benchmark Projection
Next benchmark is going to be 12-minute Run 🏃 , on
4/8/2023
.
Search
Type
Projection 🤘
Go to Planner
Days SINCE last benchmark
Historic Minimum
Historic Average
Coming soon?
# Data Pts
Type
Projection 🤘
Go to Planner
Days SINCE last benchmark
Historic Minimum
Historic Average
Coming soon?
# Data Pts
1
12-minute Run 🏃
Apr 8
Go
147 days
73 days
140 days
13
2
Inferno 🔥
Apr 17
Go
64 days
84 days
111 days
7
3
1-mile Run 🏃
May 4
Go
79 days
62 days
113 days
15
4
Mayhem 🤯
May 19
Go
314 days
363 days
363 days
1
5
500m Row 🚣♀️
May 22
Go
53 days
54 days
105 days
17
6
200m Row 🚣♀️
May 26
Go
85 days
71 days
141 days
12
7
2000m Row 🚣♀️
Jul 8
Go
28 days
64 days
127 days
14
8
Everest 🏔
Jul 23
Go
93 days
93 days
207 days
8
9
Catch Me If You Can 👮♀️
Jul 31
Go
35 days
100 days
157 days
9
10
Infinity ∞
Sep 5
Go
23 days
174 days
181 days
6
11
Hell Week 👻
Oct 24
Go
158 days
365 days
365 days
3
12
Dri-Tri 🏃 🚣♀️ 🏋️
Nov 9
Go
6 days
177 days
229 days
8
13
12 Days of Fitness 🎄
Dec 1
Go
120 days
365 days
365 days
4
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“Prediction” Methodology 🧠
Historic Analysis
For each benchmark, computes the # of days since the previous benchmark of the same type.
For each benchmark type, computes the historic minimum, average, median & maximum, grouped by benchmark of the same type.
Prediction
Using today’s date, compute the # of days since the last benchmark of the same type.
Coming Soon? 🔥
🔥🔥🔥 — If the benchmark has been officially announced, or if the # of days is greater than historic 95th-percentile.
🔥🔥 — If the # of days is greater than historic average
🔥 — If the # of days is greater than historic 5th-percentile
Projection 🤘
Either using the benchmark date reported by r/orangetheory’s monthly post, or taking the last benchmark date of the same type, and add the average of the historic average & median to project the date.
If the projection is within this month, but it hasn’t been announced yet, projection will be pushed to the beginning of next month.
Confidence Level
With the exception of benchmark officially announced by OTF, due to the sparsity of benchmarks, we have yet to have sufficient data points to support any of the prediction. 😉
On a serious note, while the prediction might not be perfect, the data collected under the Benchmark Date 💿 section below can give you an idea on the # of days between each benchmark workout. ✅