Mondrian x Cabbage Systems
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Materials for Dec 19th

Competitive Landscape overview

The Big Bang impact

Since October, Epic has released the ‘OG’ season, which recreated elements of the original Fortnite BR experience, and released three new ongoing games as part of the ‘Big Bang’ event (Lego Fortnite, Fortnite Festival, Rocket Racing). What impact have they had?
The overall Fortnite player base has grown after huge spike due to OG season (starting Nov 3rd 2023)
The Current Battle Royale season is much less popular than OG, but more popular than October’s Ch4 Season 4.
Non-Epic created Creative maps have grown overall audience (up to ~325k from ~200k in September), but lost overall audience share (down to 32% in December from 46% in September)
Overall Audience Growth - Weekly Peak Players
4
% of Players playing Epic content vs UGC
4
While it’s concerning to see the drop in the percentage of players playing UGC experiences, this is offset by the rise in overall audience size. If the increased audience size is maintained, and if the new players monetize at the same rate as the player-base in October, then overall revenues available to UGC creators may actually substantially increase.

Methodology

These charts are based on values shown in the fortnite.gg , using records of that page for historical data. We pulled weekly data (where available) for Saturdays the last 3 months - Saturday is consistently the best performing weekday for Fortnite.
For overall player numbers we used the 24-hour-peak player number for that Saturday. We also included one additional data point - the record breaking 11.3m player peak on Dec 3rd. For the share of players, we used the now-playing data for each of the Saturdays in question, and calculated the split of current players between pre-Big Bang Epic games (e.g. Battle Royale, Save the World) and post-Big Bang Epic games (Lego Fortnite, Fortnite Festival, Rocket Racing)

Incumbents remain strong

To get a sense of how easy it is for new games to break into the Top 20, we looked at current player info for the Top 20 UGC games (via fortnite.gg) and compared it with archived data for Nov 4th. 75% of players playing a Top 20 Creative Map on Dec 19th were playing a map that was also in the Top 20 on Nov 4th: * TILTED ZONE WARS ⭐ * PANDVIL Box Fight (2v2) 📦 * 🐐 GO GOATED! Zone Wars 🌀 * BOX PVP 📦 * CRAZYY RED VS BLUE 🔴🔵 * The Pit - Free For All * Piece Control 2v2 🎯 * PANDVIL Box Fight (3v3) 📦 * BHE 1V1 BUILD FIGHTS عاركني بالبناء 戦い💎 * Bed Wars * ❤Bio's Zone Wars - Custom TRIO❤ * PANDVIL Box Fight (1v1) 📦 * 1v1 Build Fights! [4.6.4]
25% of players were playing a map that had not been in the top 20 in Nov 4th. * MINIGAME BOX PVP 📦 * 🏠Home Alone - Prop Hunt🎄 * 100 Days In A Grocery Store * 🎤RAPPER BOX PVP📦 * 📦BOX FIGHT PVP🔀 * 💀MEME BOX PVP📦 * PRACTICE ZONE 📝EDIT 🎯 AIM 🧩 PIECE
The maps that have broken in to the top 20 are all new (released in November and December), and are mostly seasonal/Christmas-themed content, or Box Fight games - in some cases both. Box Fight remains a popular category, but it seems even harder to get cut through now than in our October analysis. In October the category had 6.1k islands of which 2.94% were active. Currently, the category has 9.3k islands of which only 2.15% are active, indicating that the category is even more competitive than it was previously.

New Creative/UEFN features

There have been 3 UEFN updates since October (V26.30 UPDATE - Oct 10, 2023, V27.10 - Nov 16, v28.00 Dec 3). The main new additions are:
Game:
The new Save Point device adds the ability to save and restore player progress, location, resources, and stats. Persistence is also supported via use of the Timer, Tracker, and Switch devices.
New Camera & Control Mode devices allow for top-down and side-on gameplay
Mini-map and map are now customizable
Platform:
New requirement for IARC Ratings
In-game text search, for island name, tags, and Creator name.
Improved management systems for adding playtesters

Ongoing Research

We’re in the process of updating the category analysis we presented in October. Some early indications:
Tycoon maps remain strong performers, but the category is increasingly competitive and growing in complexity. Tycoon games are increasingly finding exposure in other categories via the addition of secondary gameplay elements (e.g. games with pet mechanics are finding exposure in the previously very quiet ‘Creatures’ category). We’ll need to do more detailed work to understand if this is still a strong strategic choice.
Some new categories are generating more player interest, but it may be connected to a single hit, e.g. the ‘Fighting’ category has many more players than in October, but they are nearly all in the “CONSCRIPTED: D-DAY OPERATIONS” map, a WW2 themed zone capture map. As we work through the category analysis we’ll know more about if these categories present real commercial opportunities.

Questions/Discussion Points

To guide our research it would very helpful to refresh the discussion on strategic objectives.

How do you define success for a Fortnite map?

Is the focus still on generating revenue? Are there other considerations that we should be taking into account, e.g how important other considerations such as.:
portfolio thinking (Is the goal to pursue a break-out game or a portfolio of smaller titles?)
reusable technology (e.g. reskinnable maps)?
brand building/press coverage?
community-building (e.g. Discord membership and activity)
creator recruitment (i.e. using the map and how it’s promoted to encourage other creators to join up with Mondrian?)

Revenue Expectations

If revenue generation is still the #1 strategic priority for this map, what are the goals?
Many well performing Tycoon titles are estimated to make around $10-50k in their first month, but then lose 50-75% of their players in each subsequent month. Where are Mondrian’s revenue expectations relative to those games?
Another reference point is the Neighbor.fn portfolio, which we have tracked player numbers for
. Despite receiving ¥230 million investment based on more than 30 million plays of its games, the actual revenue estimates for their portfolio of 23 games is in the range of $10k to $37k total, since April 2023.



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