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Literature review: Just transition to AltProteins
What are the socio-economic impacts of a shift to these alternatives?
The animal agriculture industry is currently a critical part of the global economy. It is vital to the livelihoods of rural households, especially in developing countries, and provides healthy and protein-rich food for millions of people. It also holds an important social and cultural value around the world. Radically transforming this industry should be done equitably, with a just transition for the millions of people who benefit from the current food system, in terms of employment, income and food security.
3.4.3 Impacts on workers and communities
To date, little is known about the existing or potential occupational health risks in the modern plant-based food industry (including novel plant-based foods, cultivated meat and fermentation); conditions are likely to be less hazardous than those in an industrial meat processing factory, but workers could still be exposed to dangerous chemicals used in the manufacturing process, such as hexane used in soy protein isolate production (Xiang et al. 2019; Santo et al. 2020). In terms of the health risks for nearby communities, issues associated with water contamination from nutrient runoff and use
of pesticides that exist in today’s crop production would persist (ibid). Still, modern plant-based alternatives are expected to generate less waste com- pared to ASF production and require fewer inputs (e.g., water, pesticides, fertilizers) for the same amounts of calories and protein (Rubio, Xiang and Kaplan 2020; Santo et al. 2020).
3.5
Socioeconomic impacts will depend on the degree of uptake of alternatives; more research is needed to fully understand these implications
A transition from conventional ASF to novel alternatives would likely be accompanied by significant socioeconomic impacts, including in areas such as rural employment and food security. The nature and magnitude
of these potential impacts depends greatly on factors including the speed and degree of adoption of novel alternatives and the extent to which they replace or complement conventional ASF (see Section 3.2 for uncertainties in this regard).
To date, only a limited amount of research has evaluated the socioeconomic implications of novel ASF alternatives. Moreover, the available studies dispro- portionately focus on ethics and consumer acceptance (Stephens et al. 2018). Nevertheless, some researchers have begun to consider the wider impacts. Possible challenges include lost market and job opportunities for incumbents, agribusiness consolidation and further globalization of the food system, and unanswered questions about intellectual property rights of new technologies (Santo et al. 2020; Howard 2022; IPES-Food 2022). The literature also dis- cusses opportunities these industries could bring, including new jobs and the redistribution of production to new areas and countries (Treich 2021).
Promoting a just transition will require policies that consider the distribution of these challenges and opportunities, paying particular attention to vulnera- ble and disadvantaged groups such as women, ethnic minorities, Indigenous Peoples and migrants, so inequalities are not further widened (Treich 2021; Verkuijl et al. 2022; see also Section 4). Inclusive planning and support involving policymakers, workers, communities, industry actors and other rel- evant stakeholders will be key in designing such policies (ibid).
Growth of the plant-based and cultivated meat industries may create more high-skilled jobs in certain regions (Treich 2021). ClimateWorks Foundation and the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, UK Government (2021), suggests that, under a high innovation scenario, alternative proteins (including alternative dairy) could capture roughly half the global market
for animal protein, have sales of US$1.1 trillion and employ about 10 mil- lion people globally by 2050. At the same time, changes in the distribution
of labour may result in increases in unemployment in some sectors with impacts on livelihoods (Mason-D’Croz et al. 2022). Specifically, a signifi- cant reduction in conventional ASF production could drive major losses of employment in the animal farming and meat processing sectors. This will affect livestock and animal feed producers, farmworkers, meat processors and meat packing workers, among others (Mouat and Prince 2018; Stephens et al. 2018; Verkuijl et al. 2022).
Still, growth in the plant-based meat sector could create additional demand for various crops as sources of plant proteins, in turn creating opportunities for farmers that currently grow those crops or who could adopt them into their rotations (Verkuijl et al. 2022). Additionally, novel alternatives might in some cases create new opportunities for conventional livestock farming, for example to supply meat for blended products or raise livestock to supply cell lines for cultivated meat production (ClimateWorks Foundation and Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, UK Government 2021).
Rural populations could suffer if plant-based and cultivated meat shifts food production to cities, leading to losses in livelihoods, culture and tra- ditions for rural producers and communities (Johnson and Lichter 2019; Pender et al. 2019; Morais-da-Silva et al. 2022). At the same time, alterna- tive ASF production could create new jobs and opportunities in urban and peri-urban areas.
There are many uncertainties about how these novel food industries would be structured. They could present new opportunities for small businesses that target local food preferences (van der Weele and Driessen 2013; van der Weele and Tramper 2014; Stephens et al. 2018; Jönsson 2020; Treich 2021). However, potentially high barriers to entry (e.g. capital costs, intellec- tual property rights) and significant economies of scale in production could provide powerful incentives for industry consolidation (Morrison Paul 2003; Langemeier and Boehlje 2017; MacDonald 2017).
Across the conventional ASF sector there will be disparities in the adaptive capacity to respond to a shift towards novel alternatives. Most cultivated meat and plant-based product companies are owned by agribusinesses
or start-ups headquartered in industrialized countries (Mouat, Prince and Roche 2019). Their success could further entrench economic and political power disparities between the Global North and Global South (Howard 2022; IPES-Food 2022). Additionally, large food companies, that have already invested heavily in the novel foods sector, could secure significant intellec- tual property rights related to novel foods, further concentrating their market power. The number of food patents filed globally for meat substitute prod- ucts has been rising in recent years, mostly filed by large firms in the Global North (ibid). The extent of intellectual property rights that will be involved in the cultivated meat sector is unclear, though developments in seed patent- ing may offer some insights (Santo et al. 2020).
Novel alternatives have the potential to affect global supply chains, changing comparative advantages and the direction of trade flows of agri- cultural commodities. Trade in conventional ASF has grown significantly
in recent decades, but is dwarfed by that in animal feed (Galloway et al. 2007). Nations where conventional animal products and feed make up a large portion of exports or of the economy could be vulnerable to a shift
in global demand for agricultural commodities, in particular countries that rely on agricultural exports for foreign currency (Mancini and Antonioli 2022; Morais-da-Silva et al. 2022). By contrast, countries with little domes- tic animal agriculture may be able to replace some protein imports with domestically produced novel ASF alternatives and even benefit from export opportunities, with countries such as Israel and Singapore already investing in alternatives (Kamalapuram, Handral and Choudhury 2021; Morach et al. 2021; GFI 2023a).
The consequences of the adoption of novel alternatives for food security is difficult to assess ex ante. Some studies suggest that they could increase the availability of protein-rich foods to meet the nutritional needs of more people (Wan, Tai and Du 2021; Zhu and Begho 2022). However, poverty is
a major driver of food insecurity (Sen 1983; FAO 2022), and as previously noted novel alternatives may disrupt the livelihoods of rural populations that are disproportionately poor and work in agriculture (Castañeda et
al. 2018; Davis, Lipper and Winters 2022). Further research is needed to understand potential food security implications of novel ASF alternatives more fully, as outcomes may depend on the specific dynamics of local supply chains. Complementary agricultural and social support policies may be needed to support communities to adapt to change. This could include increased investment in areas including social safety nets, agricultural research and extension services (Chichaibelu et al. 2021), as well as incen- tives to ensure that freed-up resources such as land and water are used for activities that benefit the environment and food security.
Ensuring inclusive and participatory planning processes, engaging stakeholders, including government agencies, civil society organizations, and minorities, to develop plans that address their concerns and needs.
Providing support to stakeholders to mitigate the negative impacts of a transition. Policymakers can also invest in local economic diversification and create new job opportunities to offset revenue losses.
Identifying and addressing existing inequalities in the meat sector and involving stakeholders in addressing these issues. During this transition, vulnerable groups may struggle to find replacement jobs and face worker rights abuses.
A Just Transition in animal agriculture presents a unique opportunity to reshape our food systems to become resilient in an era of climate change and to ensure real solutions to injustices in the system. While lowering the overall climate footprint of food systems, this transition must redress power imbalances by ensuring food for all, strengthening gender justice, workers’ rights and ensuring social protection for those who would otherwise lose out in the transition process.
This transition must bring people together from across the supply chain — particularly those whose voices are rarely heard — into an inclusive process at an early stage, to shape positive alternatives and identify the support, skills and safety nets necessary to make the transition. In doing so, a Just Transition in animal agriculture can help food-producing communities become powerful advocates for the transition towards a sustainable, resilient and equitable future.
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At Aleph Farms, we believe that a Just Transition must create value to all players throughout the existing supply chain. Beyond protecting the livelihood of workers in the context of climate change, our work with Federation University will examine the role of cultivated meat in improving well-being, rights and opportunities for livestock farmers.
Our global food system was established at the start of the 20th century, when there were 1.6 billion people on the planet. It is not suitable for feeding the world population of today and certainly not that of the future. This is a challenge of scale for which transformational innovation is necessary.Transformational innovation includes meat alternatives such as plant or fermentation-based meat and cultivated meat, an alternative to the current meat production process. Cultivated meat is grown directly from animal cells rather than the entire animal. It has the potential to drasticallycut down on the overall environmental footprint of meat production, reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 92%, land use by 95%, and water use by 78% (Odegard and Sinke, 2021) compared tointensive livestock farming. Furthermore, cultivated meat eliminates the need for antibiotics and increases supply chain resilience by reducingthe production timeline to three to four weeks, compared to an average of two years for conventional production methods.Such transformational innovation should co-exist and complement the production capacity of sustainable livestock farming methods to meet the growing market demand for meat. This can be successfully integrated with current food systems through supporting and investing in local producers, empowering communities, and giving existing farmers the opportunity to forge new revenue streams alongside conventionalproduction. Incorporating ‘Just Transition’ practices while collaboratively integrating cultivated meat with animal agriculture can ensure economic security and social equity for farmers as the sector transitions to become a more sustainable and nature balanced overall system.
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