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Teoria Prospectiva: Consideracion de formulas
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Summary
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Grafico Weighted Prob
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Prospect theory
Theory of behavioral economics and behavioral finance
Prospect theory is a theory of behavioral economics and behavioral finance that was developed by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky in 1979. The theory was cited in the decision to award Kahneman the 2002 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics.
Based on results from controlled studies, it describes how individuals assess their loss and gain perspectives in an asymmetric manner (see loss aversion). For example, for some individuals, the pain from losing $1,000 could only be compensated by the pleasure of earning $2,000. Thus, contrary to the expected utility theory (which models the decision that perfectly rational agents would make), prospect theory aims to describe the actual behavior of people.
In the original formulation of the theory, the term prospect referred to the predictable results of a lottery. However, prospect theory can also be applied to the prediction of other forms of behaviors and decisions.
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Estimacion Weighted Probability
Probability
Alpha
Aproximated Weigthed Prob.
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1
1.00%
1.00%
100.00%
2
0.70%
0.61%
50.00%
3
0.70%
0.33%
15.00%
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Table 1
Outcome
Gain/Loss
Probabilty of outcome
Probabilty Weight
Discounted probability
Utils difference
Expected value
1
Increase tarif 15%
High benefits
Low
2
3
4
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Diminishing sensitivity
Alpha
Beta
Landa
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1
.88
.88
2.25
2
.68
.74
3.2
3
.72
.73
2.54
4
.81
.80
1.07
5
.71
.72
1.38
6
.86
1.06
2.61
There are no rows in this table
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