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Conversational logic of Expected Utility
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Quantitaive Analysis EU

Detalle EU

Considera un nuevo desafio
Nuevo desafio
Selector de Ronda
Ronda 1 +2
Actor Proponente
Power
+7
View of Matriz Posicionamiento Todas las Rondas
2
Ronda
Turno
Asunto critico
Reestructuracin sector electrico
44
Actor Proponente
Actor Receiver
Propuesta
Influence
Position
Salience
SxI Presion
SxIxP Apoyo
Welgthed Average
Difference Position Weighted ave
Expected Utility of Proposer
Expected Utility of Receiver
Difference EU proposer to receiver
New influence of Proposer
New position of Proposer
New Salience of Proposer
Pro Success Proposer over Rec Utils Proposer if wins over Rec Utils Proposer if fails Probability Receiver will win over Prop Utils Receiver if wins over Proposer Probability of Status Quo Utils Receiver if Status Quo Utils Receiver if fails over Proposer Utils of Proposer if Status Quo Utils of Proposer if Situation worst Probability of change Utils Proposer if Situation is better Expected Utility of Proposer Utils Receiver if Situation is better Utils Receiver if Situation is worst Expected Utility of Receiver Difference EU proposer to receiver 0.21 2513 3186 0.86 9817 0.18 1142 5985 6353 5599 0.58 564 -55211.7984 1149 3823 -123560.96440000003 -19243.574 0.59 1265 144 0.64 5522 0.79 5185 2618 3105 5426 0.33 5301 -51553.689300000005 5313 7919 -294549.81090000004 113285.4316 0 155 5687 0.16 4713 0.74 6705 8598 755 3034 0.32 7363 -15846.1816 8705 2660 -481847.156 337906.4544 0.79 2477 4016 0.76 3582 0.23 7508 8393 2009 2625 0.04 7979 -182925.3232 3746 3775 -360278.21680000005 15740.1236 0.41 3977 105 0.96 9447 0.47 9293 1498 4637 9150 0.09 9935 -71153.1895 2263 2884 -49736.01510000001 -64892.4544 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Utils Proposer if wins over Rec
Probability of change
Utils Proposer if Situation is better
Utils of Proposer if Situation worst
Probability of Status Quo
Utils of Proposer if Status Quo
Probability Receiver will win over Prop
Utils Proposer if fails
Utils Receiver if fails over Proposer
Utils Receiver if Situation is better
Utils Receiver if Situation is worst
Utils Receiver if Status Quo
Utils Receiver if wins over Proposer
Ronda 1
30
1
7
Power
Power
A
000
48
000
19
000
96
4608
87552
43
-24
-256605.2
-127390.1
-129215.1
000
65
000
81
000
26
0.21
2513
0.58
000
18
5599
0.18
6353
0.86
3186
000
29
1149
3823
1142
9817
Power
Regulator
B
000
60
000
20
000
80
4800
96000
43
-23
-51553.7
-294549.8
242996.1
000
25
000
0
000
0
0.59
1265
0.33
0000
5301
5426
0.79
3105
0.64
144
0000
2618
5313
7919
5185
5522
Power
Ministry of Industry
A
000
80
000
60
000
90
7200
432000
43
17
-15846.2
-481847.2
466001.0
000
0
000
0
000
0
0
155
0.32
0000
7363
3034
0.74
755
0.16
5687
0000
8598
8705
2660
6705
4713
Power
Treasury
A
000
50
000
50
000
50
2500
125000
43
7
-182925.3
-360278.2
177352.9
000
29
000
0
000
0
0.79
2477
0.04
0000
7979
2625
0.23
2009
0.76
4016
0000
8393
3746
3775
7508
3582
Power
LaborUnion
000
38
000
31
000
41
1558
48298
43
-12
42.0
42.0
0.0
000
22
000
46
000
31
000
000
Power
Competitors
000
19
000
77
000
24
456
35112
43
34
25.0
25.0
0.0
000
22
000
44
000
40
000
000
Power
Systemoperator
000
37
000
24
000
60
2220
53280
43
-19
61.0
61.0
0.0
000
61
000
17
000
34
000
000
7
Count
281
Sum
-1263937.3
Sum
757134.9
Sum
2
7
Regulator
Power
A
000
51
000
74
000
65
3315
245310
43
31
-127696.8
-85319.6
-42377.2
000
58
000
42
000
45
0.21
2513
0.58
000
50
100
0.18
6353
0.86
0.58
000
91
1149
50
1142
9817
Regulator
Regulator
B
000
48
000
36
000
68
3264
117504
43
-7
69.0
69.0
0.0
000
31
000
42
000
30
000
000
Regulator
Ministry of Industry
000
35
000
45
000
42
1470
66150
43
2
43.0
43.0
0.0
000
36
000
47
000
41
000
000
Regulator
Treasury
000
54
000
42
000
44
2376
99792
43
-1
45.0
45.0
0.0
000
57
000
42
000
15
000
000
Regulator
LaborUnion
000
36
000
29
000
42
1512
43848
43
-14
43.0
43.0
0.0
000
46
000
33
000
72
000
000
Regulator
Competitors
000
42
000
41
000
57
2394
98154
43
-2
58.0
58.0
0.0
000
70
000
60
000
32
000
000
Regulator
Systemoperator
000
25
000
53
000
30
750
39750
43
10
31.0
31.0
0.0
000
56
000
42
000
18
000
000
7
Count
320
Sum
-85030.6
Sum
-42377.2
Sum
3
7
Ministry of Industry
Power
A
000
70
000
58
000
73
5110
296380
43
15
-39032.0
-148631.6
109599.6
000
000
000
0.59
1265
0.33
000
40
120
0.79
3105
0.64
0.33
000
99
5313
60
5185
5522
Ministry of Industry
Regulator
B
000
60
000
58
000
84
5040
292320
43
15
85.0
85.0
0.0
000
000
000
000
100
000
Ministry of Industry
Ministry of Industry
000
49
000
49
000
41
2009
98441
43
6
42.0
42.0
0.0
000
000
000
000
000
Ministry of Industry
Treasury
000
30
000
47
000
51
1530
71910
43
4
52.0
52.0
0.0
000
000
000
000
000
Ministry of Industry
LaborUnion
000
48
000
43
000
90
4320
185760
43
0
91.0
91.0
0.0
000
000
000
000
000
Ministry of Industry
Competitors
000
81
000
28
000
100
8100
226800
43
-15
101.0
101.0
0.0
000
000
000
000
000
Ministry of Industry
Systemoperator
000
31
000
33
000
76
2356
77748
43
-10
77.0
77.0
0.0
000
000
000
000
000
7
Count
316
Sum
-148183.6
Sum
109599.6
Sum
4
2
Treasury
Power
A
000
67
000
37
000
76
5092
188404
43
-6
-12154.2
-302975.8
290821.6
000
000
000
0
155
0.32
000
33
140
0.74
755
0.16
0.32
000
97
8705
70
6705
4713
Treasury
Regulator
000
000
000
43
-43
1.0
1.0
0.0
000
000
000
000
000
2
Count
37
Sum
-302974.8
Sum
290821.6
Sum
5
3
LaborUnion
Power
A
000
60
000
70
000
30
1800
126000
43
27
-71153.2
-49736.0
-21417.2
000
0
000
0
000
0
0.41
3977
0.09
0000
9935
9150
0.47
4637
0.96
105
0000
1498
2263
2884
9293
9447
LaborUnion
Regulator
A
000
37
000
24
000
82
3034
72816
43
-19
-40566.2
-71540.9
30974.7
000
000
000
0.79
2477
0.04
000
40
160
0.23
2009
0.76
0.04
000
46
3746
80
7508
3582
LaborUnion
Ministry of Industry
000
000
000
43
-43
1.0
1.0
0.0
000
000
000
000
000
3
Count
94
Sum
-121275.9
Sum
9557.5
Sum
6
3
3
Count
184
Sum
-11143.6
Sum
-76201.5
Sum
7
1
Competitors
Power
000
000
10
000
0
43
-33
1.0
1.0
0.0
000
000
000
000
000
1
Count
10
Sum
1.0
Sum
0.0
Sum
Ronda 2
7
1
1
Power
Regulator
000
000
20
000
0
43
-23
1.0
1.0
0.0
000
000
000
000
000
1
Count
20
Sum
1.0
Sum
0.0
Sum
2
1
Regulator
Regulator
000
000
80
000
0
43
37
1.0
1.0
0.0
000
000
000
000
000
1
Count
80
Sum
1.0
Sum
0.0
Sum
3
1
Ministry of Industry
Regulator
000
000
70
000
0
43
27
1.0
1.0
0.0
000
000
000
000
000
1
Count
70
Sum
1.0
Sum
0.0
Sum
4
1
Treasury
Regulator
000
000
40
000
0
43
-3
1.0
1.0
0.0
000
000
000
000
000
1
Count
40
Sum
1.0
Sum
0.0
Sum
5
1
LaborUnion
000
000
30
000
0
43
-13
1.0
1.0
0.0
000
000
000
000
000
1
Count
30
Sum
1.0
Sum
0.0
Sum
6
1
Competitors
Regulator
C
000
000
90
000
0
43
47
1.0
1.0
0.0
000
000
000
000
000
1
Count
90
Sum
1.0
Sum
0.0
Sum
7
1
Systemoperator
Regulator
000
000
90
000
0
43
47
1.0
1.0
0.0
000
000
000
000
000
1
Count
90
Sum
1.0
Sum
0.0
Sum
Ronda 3
7
1
1
Power
Ministry of Industry
000
000
80
000
0
43
37
1.0
1.0
0.0
000
000
000
000
000
1
Count
80
Sum
1.0
Sum
0.0
Sum
2
1
Regulator
000
000
40
000
0
43
-3
1.0
1.0
0.0
000
000
000
000
000
1
Count
40
Sum
1.0
Sum
0.0
Sum
3
1
Ministry of Industry
Ministry of Industry
000
000
89
000
0
43
46
1.0
1.0
0.0
000
000
000
000
000
1
Count
89
Sum
1.0
Sum
0.0
Sum
4
1
Treasury
Ministry of Industry
000
000
10
000
0
43
-33
1.0
1.0
0.0
000
000
000
000
000
1
Count
10
Sum
1.0
Sum
0.0
Sum
5
1
LaborUnion
Ministry of Industry
000
000
20
000
0
43
-23
1.0
1.0
0.0
000
000
000
000
000
1
Count
20
Sum
1.0
Sum
0.0
Sum
6
1
Competitors
Ministry of Industry
000
000
80
000
0
43
37
1.0
1.0
0.0
000
000
000
000
000
1
Count
80
Sum
1.0
Sum
0.0
Sum
7
1
Systemoperator
Ministry of Industry
000
000
000
43
-43
1.0
1.0
0.0
000
000
000
000
000
1
Count
0
Sum
1.0
Sum
0.0
Sum



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