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Evaluation and Decision
Qualitative Prospect Russia Ukraine
Conflict analysis RUSSIA - UKRAINE
Actor
Frame
Description
Initiative
Potential benefits
Description benefits
Potential costs
Costs description
Expected value Net Benefits* Probability
Loss aversion
Image
Probaility of success
Weight assigned to the probability of success
Risk aversion
Grafico
The player is not giving priority to gains?
Risk attitude
Possible decision
Putin
It's in a gaining situation
His ideology is to rebuilda all empire. Destroy Zelensky
Invade free Ukraine area
Very High Benefits
Consolidate internal hegemony/Stronger intl position
Very High
Possible war with NATO; Strong economic sanctions
Very high
Very Low Prob. Success
Increase weight
Risk Aversion Decreases Significantly
Very high Risk Propensity
Try to expand territory
OTAN
it's in a loss situation
To allow Russia to control Dombas and expand will mean a big loss of prestige
Give Ukraine OTAN membership (Fast track)
Very High Benefits
Contain Russia imperial dreams and gain intl prestige
Very High
Possible war with Russia
Very high
High Prob. Success
Risk Aversion Decreases
Moderate Risk Propensity
Potent Options to contain Russia’s expansion are limited but because of Doubts wether Russia is going to use nuclear weapons OTAN can fracture and prefer continue giving sophisticated weapons
Putin
It's in a gaining situation
A gaining situation should make him stop at Donbas but his ideology about rebuilding the empire can push him to expand to the west
Make credible his initiative to expand supported by making more credible his option of using nuclear weapons
High Benefits
Very High
Very high
Low Prob. Success
Increase weight
Risk Aversion Decreases
Very high Risk Propensity
Putin will probably will make this his next move
There are no rows in this table
Risk attitude
Risk attitude
Propensity for conservatism (Certainty)
Moderate Risk Propensity
Very high Risk Propensity
There are no rows in this table
Risk aversion
Risk aversion
Risk Aversion Increases
Risk Aversion Decreases
Risk Aversion Neutral
Risk Aversion Decreases Significantly
There are no rows in this table
Weight assigned to the probability of success
Weight assigned to the probability of success
Lose weight
Increase weight
Neutral
There are no rows in this table
Potential costs
Potential costs
Very High
High
Low
None
There are no rows in this table
Potential benefits
Potential benefits
Very High Benefits
High Benefits
No Benefits
Very Low Benefits
Low Benefits
There are no rows in this table
Actors
Actor
Putin
Zelensky
Biden
Xi Jinping
Sholtz
Prensa Kremlin
Rusia
Finland
England
China
OTAN
Press
NYT
Atlantic Council
Expert
France
Macron
Turkey
Russia
The economist
Kissinger
Allies Russia
Allies Ukraine
EU
Lavrov
There are no rows in this table
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