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Evaluation and Decision
Qualitative Prospect Russia Ukraine
Conflict analysis RUSSIA - UKRAINE
Actor
Frame
Description
Initiative
Potential benefits
Description benefits
Potential costs
Costs description
Expected value Net Benefits* Probability
Loss aversion
Image
Probaility of success
Weight assigned to the probability of success
Risk aversion
Grafico
The player is not giving priority to gains?
Risk attitude
Possible decision
1
Putin
It's in a gaining situation
His ideology is to rebuilda all empire. Destroy Zelensky
Invade free Ukraine area
Very High Benefits
Consolidate internal hegemony/Stronger intl position
Very High
Possible war with NATO; Strong economic sanctions
Very high
Very Low Prob. Success
Increase weight
Risk Aversion Decreases Significantly
Very high Risk Propensity
Try to expand territory
2
OTAN
it's in a loss situation
To allow Russia to control Dombas and expand will mean a big loss of prestige
Give Ukraine OTAN membership (Fast track)
Very High Benefits
Contain Russia imperial dreams and gain intl prestige
Very High
Possible war with Russia
Very high
High Prob. Success
Risk Aversion Decreases
Moderate Risk Propensity
Potent Options to contain Russia’s expansion are limited but because of Doubts wether Russia is going to use nuclear weapons OTAN can fracture and prefer continue giving sophisticated weapons
3
Putin
It's in a gaining situation
A gaining situation should make him stop at Donbas but his ideology about rebuilding the empire can push him to expand to the west
Make credible his initiative to expand supported by making more credible his option of using nuclear weapons
High Benefits
Very High
Very high
Low Prob. Success
Increase weight
Risk Aversion Decreases
Very high Risk Propensity
Putin will probably will make this his next move
There are no rows in this table
Risk attitude
Risk attitude
1
Propensity for conservatism (Certainty)
2
Moderate Risk Propensity
3
Very high Risk Propensity
There are no rows in this table
Risk aversion
Risk aversion
1
Risk Aversion Increases
2
Risk Aversion Decreases
3
Risk Aversion Neutral
4
Risk Aversion Decreases Significantly
There are no rows in this table
Weight assigned to the probability of success
Weight assigned to the probability of success
1
Lose weight
2
Increase weight
3
Neutral
There are no rows in this table
Potential costs
Potential costs
1
Very High
2
High
3
Low
4
None
There are no rows in this table
Potential benefits
Potential benefits
1
Very High Benefits
2
High Benefits
3
No Benefits
4
Very Low Benefits
5
Low Benefits
There are no rows in this table
Actors
Actor
1
Putin
2
Zelensky
3
Biden
4
Xi Jinping
5
Sholtz
6
Prensa Kremlin
7
Rusia
8
Finland
9
England
10
China
11
OTAN
12
Press
13
NYT
14
Atlantic Council
15
Expert
16
France
17
Macron
18
Turkey
19
Russia
20
The economist
21
Kissinger
22
Allies Russia
23
Allies Ukraine
24
EU
25
Lavrov
There are no rows in this table
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