Confrontation Russia Ukraine

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Key Insights By Connecting Prospect Theory and Drama Theory

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To reiterate, the rescue mission option did not possess the highest expected value. The highest expected value was the option that offered the lower variance in outcome value as well as the higher probability of suc- cess. This option was the one that pursued economic and political sanc- tions as well as negotiations. This strategy did bring about the eventual release of the hostages.104

Key Insights Prospect and Drama Connected

Key Insights Prospect and Drama Connected

Actor Proposer

Actor Proposer

Actor Receiver

Actor Receiver

Initiative

Initiative

Dilemmas

Dilemmas

Description

Description

Notes

Notes

Frame

Frame

Balance Gain/Losses respect reference point

Balance Gain/Losses respect reference point

Expected value

Expected value

Probability of success

Probability of success

Loss aversion

Loss aversion

Effect of factors on Decision

Effect of factors on  Decision

Possible decison

Possible decison

Actor Proposer

Actor Proposer

Actor Receiver

Actor Receiver

Initiative

Initiative

Dilemmas

Dilemmas

Description

Description

Notes

Notes

Frame

Frame

Balance Gain/Losses respect reference point

Balance Gain/Losses respect reference point

Expected value

Expected value

Probability of success

Probability of success

Loss aversion

Loss aversion

Effect of factors on Decision

Effect of factors on  Decision

Possible decison

Possible decison

Putin

Zelensky

PersuasionRejection

Trust

Open

Perception of loser internally and externally Trust dilemma with his Top supporters (Drama Theory)

Low

Very high

Open

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