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Confrontation Russia Ukraine
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Russia-Ukraine confrontation: bringing up new questions
Key Insights By Connecting Prospect Theory and Drama Theory
Situational Assessment
Intentions and tendencies
Evaluation and Decision
Action and mobilization
Database
Untitled
Manejo de Dilemas
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https://open.library.ubc.ca/media/download/pdf/831/1.0098502/2
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Conflict

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https://abcnews.go.com/International/live-updates/russia-ukraine/?id=83184729
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Escala de posiciones iniciales sobre invasion a Ucrania
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Analisis con esquema adaptado de aplicacion logica de calculo rechazo a la perdida 2
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Actores
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View of Prospect analysis qualitative 2
Episode
Scene
Who is the Proposer
Who is the Receiver
Initiative
Context
Frame
Outcome 1
The power of gains
The power of losses
Loss aversion: Sensitivity to Gain/Losses
Prob. Success of outcome
Weight adjustment if high
Weight adjustment if low
Adjusted Gain
Cumulative Prospect
Certainty equivalent: X Large Prob. is one/ X Small Prob. is cero
Possible Decision base on Preferences
Dilemmas of Receiver
Dilemmas of Proposer
Putin considers Ucrania’s inclination toward the West and Becoming part of NATO puts Rusia National Security under threat
Putin controls Ucrania
000
0.9
000
0.4
000
0.2
000
0.5
000
0.4
​
Open
​
Open
Open
The actions of OTAN in the military side are conditioned by possibility of a war OTAN-Rusia
A weak Rusia, Helps Ucrania stop invasion
000
0.6
000
0.5
000
0.6
000
0.2
000
0.5
​
Open
​
Open
Open
​
​
000
0.8
000
0.5
000
0.2
000
0.7
000
0.3
​
Open
​
Open
Open
​
​
000
0.9
000
0.2
000
0.6
000
0.5
000
0.6
​
Open
​
Open
Open
​
​
0
0
0
0
0
​
Open
​
Open
Open
​
​
0
0
0
0
0
​
Open
​
Open
Open
​
​
0
0
0
0
0
​
Open
​
Open
Open
​
​
0
0
0
0
0
​
Open
​
Open
Open
​
​
0
0
0
0
0
​
Open
​
Open
Open
​
​
0
0
0
0
0
​
Open
​
Open
Open
​
​
0
0
0
0
0
​
Open
​
Open
Open
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