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Confrontation Russia Ukraine
App POWERCHESS
Russia-Ukraine confrontation: bringing up new questions
Key Insights By Connecting Prospect Theory and Drama Theory
Situational Assessment
Intentions and tendencies
Evaluation and Decision
Action and mobilization
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Manejo de Dilemas
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Flowchart
https://open.library.ubc.ca/media/download/pdf/831/1.0098502/2
Conflict
https://abcnews.go.com/International/live-updates/russia-ukraine/?id=83184729
Escala de posiciones iniciales sobre invasion a Ucrania
Escala de posiciones iniciales sobre invasion a Ucrania
1
Analisis con esquema adaptado de aplicacion logica de calculo rechazo a la perdida 2
Analisis con esquema adaptado de aplicacion logica de calculo rechazo a la perdida 2
Actores
Actores
View of Prospect analysis qualitative 2
View of Prospect analysis qualitative 2
2
Episode
Scene
Who is the Proposer
Who is the Receiver
Initiative
Context
Frame
Outcome 1
The power of gains
The power of losses
Loss aversion: Sensitivity to Gain/Losses
Prob. Success of outcome
Weight adjustment if high
Weight adjustment if low
Adjusted Gain
Cumulative Prospect
Certainty equivalent: X Large Prob. is one/ X Small Prob. is cero
Possible Decision base on Preferences
Dilemmas of Receiver
Dilemmas of Proposer
Episode
Scene
Who is the Proposer
Who is the Receiver
Initiative
Context
Frame
Outcome 1
The power of gains
The power of losses
Loss aversion: Sensitivity to Gain/Losses
Prob. Success of outcome
Weight adjustment if high
Weight adjustment if low
Adjusted Gain
Cumulative Prospect
Certainty equivalent: X Large Prob. is one/ X Small Prob. is cero
Possible Decision base on Preferences
Dilemmas of Receiver
Dilemmas of Proposer
1
E1
Esc 1
Putin
Zelenski
OTAN
Control Ucrania
Putin considers Ucrania’s inclination toward the West and Becoming part of NATO puts Rusia National Security under threat
Emotion dominates reason
Putin is not confortable with his prestige
Putin controls Ucrania
000
0.9
000
0.4
- Very high
000
0.2
000
0.5
000
0.4
Play
Open
Open
2
E1
Esc 2
OTAN
Putin
Strong sanctions
The actions of OTAN in the military side are conditioned by possibility of a war OTAN-Rusia
Reason dominates emotion
A weak Rusia, Helps Ucrania stop invasion
000
0.6
000
0.5
1.25
000
0.6
000
0.2
000
0.5
Prudent play
Open
Open
3
E1
Esc 3
Biden
Putin
Strong sanctions
Reason dominates emotion
000
0.8
000
0.5
3.5
000
0.2
000
0.7
000
0.3
Open
Open
4
E2
000
0.9
000
0.2
2.5
000
0.6
000
0.5
000
0.6
Open
Open
5
E2
0
0
0
0
0
Open
Open
6
E2
0
0
0
0
0
Open
Open
7
E3
0
0
0
0
0
Open
Open
8
E3
0
0
0
0
0
Open
Open
9
E3
0
0
0
0
0
Open
Open
10
0
0
0
0
0
Open
Open
11
0
0
0
0
0
Open
Open
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