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Bear Music Fest 2025 - Merchandise Operations Analysis & Recommendations

Executive Summary

The Bear Music Fest 2025 merchandise operation generated $13,792 in gross sales from 454 unique customers over three days (September 12-14). While achieving a 70% penetration rate among festival attendees, the operation left significant revenue on the table due to stockouts, operational inefficiencies, and missed opportunities. Analysis reveals $8,000-10,000 in preventable losses with clear paths to improvement for 2026.

Key Performance Metrics

Metric

2025 Actual

Total Revenue

$13,792

Unique Customers

454

Penetration Rate

70%

Revenue per Customer

$30.38

Items per Transaction

1.31

Revenue per Attendee

$21.22

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1. Sales Performance Analysis

1.1 Revenue Distribution by Category

1.2 Daily Performance Breakdown

Date

Transactions

Revenue

Peak Hour (PST)

Peak Sales

Sept 12

109

$2,448

6-7 PM

69 items

Sept 13

188

$4,871

8-9 PM

109 items

Sept 14

269

$6,473

9-10 PM

112 items

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2. Critical Problem: Size Stockouts

2.1 Evidence of Stockouts

2025 Concert Tee - Abnormal Size Distribution:

Size

Units Sold

Normal %

Actual %

Status

Small

22-25%

9.4%

Sold out Saturday afternoon

Medium

30-35%

28.1%

Sold out Saturday PM

Large

25-30%

46.9%

Available throughout

10-15%

15.6%

Normal

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Critical Finding: Large outsold Medium by 67% - this ONLY occurs when preferred sizes are unavailable.

2.2 Financial Impact of Stockouts

Item

Lost Sales

Price

Lost Revenue

Concert Tee S/M

30-40 units

$35

$1,050-1,400

Ringer Shirt S/M

20-30 units

$30

$600-900

Customer Walkways

50-65 people

$30 avg

$1,500-1,950

Total Stockout Loss

$3,150-4,250

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3. Operational Analysis

3.1 Time-Based Sales Patterns (PST)

Peak Revenue Windows:

8-10 PM: 48% of daily revenue (post-headliner rush)

1-3 PM: 18% of daily revenue (afternoon arrivals)

12-1 PM: 12% of daily revenue (lunch break)

Dead Zones: 4-5 PM and 11 PM-midnight (major performances)

3.2 Operational Inefficiencies Identified

Issue

Impact

Annual Cost

Setup Delay (10 AM → 12 PM)

2 hours lost prime sales

$900-1,500

Back Wall Visibility

15-20% inventory underperformed

$750-1,000

Line Congestion

10-15% customer abandonment

$1,380-2,070

No SKU Tracking

Inventory blindness

Unmeasurable

Single Location

Missed remote customers

$500-750

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3.3 Customer Journey Analysis

Customer Segments Identified:

Families/Kids (20%): Early arrival, quick sellouts on kids items

Core Festival-goers (65%): Peak 8-10 PM, BMF merchandise focus

Older Demographics (15%): Gráinne Hunt merchandise, vinyl preference

Purchase Behavior:

75% single-item purchases

18% two-item purchases

7% three or more items

Low basket size (1.31) indicates limited product availability

4. Product Performance Insights

4.1 Top Performers

2025 Concert Tee: 64+ units (would have been 100+ with proper stock)

Stickers: 22 units at $2 (perfect impulse item)

Gráinne Hunt Merchandise: 92 units (20% attachment rate)

Vinyl Records: Strong performance across artists

4.2 Underperformers

Stephan Crump: 1 unit

Jen Chapin: 2 units

Items priced $45-50: Dead pricing zone likely due to these items being more niche or convivence focused (Barnaby bright USB, hoodies but people came prepared with warm clothes and it was warm in the day time, etc.)

4.3 Price Point Analysis

Price Range

Units

Revenue

Insight

Under $10

$534

Entry point/impulse

$10-20

203

$3,045

Volume driver

$20-30

195

$4,875

Sweet spot

$30-40

$3,116

Premium accepted

$40+

$2,222

Resistance point

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5. Recommendations by Priority

5.1 Immediate Actions (No Investment Required)

Keep BMF Merch staged overnight.

Rotate display to attract repeat customers.

Create bundles, especially with old inventory.

Include marketing for the merch tent at Gold and Oski

5.2 Inventory Corrections for 2026

2025 Concert Tee (Order 150 units):

Small: 35 units (23%)

Medium: 50 units (33%)

Large: 40 units (27%)

XL: 20 units (13%)

XXL: 5 units (3%)

New Kids Line (50 units minimum):

Kids tees: 30 units

Stickers: 200 units at $2

Kids hoodies: 15 units

5.3 Operational Improvements

Staffing Schedule (PST):

10 AM-1 PM: 2 staff

1-3 PM: 3 staff

3-6 PM: 2 staff

6-8 PM: 3 staff

8-10 PM: 4-5 staff (critical)

10 PM-close: 2 staff

Booth Layout Optimization:

Front tables: New 2025 items, impulse buys

Middle: Vinyl/CD display, bundles

Back wall: Clear access, no staff blocking

5.4 System Improvements

Critical Needs:

Implement SKU tracking (even manual)

Capture customer emails (78% currently anonymous)

Add 2 mobile POS units for peak hours

Create "Never Out of Medium" reserve protocol

6. Financial Projections

2026 Scenario Planning

Scenario

Customers

Rev/Customer

Items/Customer

Total Revenue

Increase

Conservative

500

$40

1.5

$20,000

45%

Target

520

$42

1.6

$21,840

58%

Stretch

550

$47

1.8

$25,850

88%

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ROI on Recommended Investments

Investment

Cost

Revenue Impact

ROI

Inventory increase

$2,000

$3,000-4,000

150-200%

Kids line

$750

$1,500-2,000

200-267%

Display system

$500

$750-1,000

150-200%

Mobile POS (2)

$300

$1,000-1,500

333-500%

Total

$3,550

$6,250-8,500

176-239%

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7. Data Collection Requirements for 2026

Essential Metrics to Track

Hourly sales by SKU and size (not just daily totals)

Stockout timestamps (exactly when each size sells out)

Customer email capture rate (target 50%+)

Line abandonment counts (tally marks)

Browse-to-buy ratio (foot traffic vs purchases)

Simple Tracking Tools

Paper tally sheets by hour

Size availability board (visible to customers)

Customer request log (what they wanted but couldn't find)

Staff observation notes

8. Strategic Opportunities

Multi-Function Booth Concept

Information center + merchandise

Scavenger hunt start/end point

Photo opportunity backdrop

Artist meet & greet location

Festival schedule distribution

Marketing Integration

Pre-festival interest surveys

Time-based promotions (happy hours)

Artist merchandise callouts (already working)

Social proof displays (bestseller signs)

9. Key Success Factors

What's Working (Maintain)

Strong BMF brand (50% of revenue)

Artist CTAs during performances

Smooth payment processing

Gráinne Hunt demographic appeal

What Needs Fixing (Priority)

Inventory: S/M stockouts cost $3,000-4,000

Setup: 2-hour delay costs $900-1,500

Data: No customer capture or SKU tracking

Layout: Back wall invisibility costs $750-1,000

What's Missing (Opportunity)

Kids/family products

$15-20 price point items

Customer email capture

Bundle offerings

10. Conclusion & Next Steps

The Bear Music Fest 2025 merchandise operation has strong fundamentals but is operating at 60% capacity due to preventable issues. The data proves $8,000-10,000 in addressable losses from:

Stockouts in popular sizes ($3,000-4,000)

Operational inefficiencies ($2,000-3,000)

Missing demographics ($2,000-3,000)

Immediate Priorities:

Count and photograph all remaining inventory

Create bundle packages from old stock

Design rapid-setup display system

Develop order plan with proper size ratios

Success Metrics for 2026:

80% customer penetration (vs 70%)

1.6 items per customer (vs 1.31)

$42 per customer (vs $30.38)

50% email capture (vs 22%)

The Bottom Line: Growing from $13,792 to $22,000+ doesn't require more attendees - it requires having the right products in the right sizes when customers want to buy them.

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Report compiled from 454 unique customers, 566 transaction line items, 592 units sold Data period: September 12-14, 2025 | Analysis includes stockout verification and operational observations

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