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Ludo Express Bias

| Data undertaken → 9:15am 11 July, 2024 to 24 July, 2024

Stastical Observations

1) Higher the total points on opponent pawns, higher the probability of hitting a higher reward tier

Cumulative points on opponent pawn to result
Result
Avg Pawn score
Median Pawn score
1
Tier 1
381.57
379
2
Tier 2
354.02
356
3
Tier 3
334.23
332
4
Tier 4
314.71
313
5
No Reward*
291.75
289
There are no rows in this table
⁠

2) Higher the frequency of high weight pawns, higher the probability of hitting a higher reward tier

Pawn weight frequency to result
Result
5W Pawn Avg
4W Pawn Avg
3W Pawn Avg
2W Pawn Avg
1W Pawn Avg
1
Tier 1
4.5
2.5
2
1.8
1.3
2
Tier 2
3.7
2.5
2.1
2
1.7
3
Tier 3
3.3
2.3
2.1
2.2
2
4
Tier 4
2.8
2.2
2.2
2.5
2.3
5
No Reward*
2.3
2.1
2.2
2.7
2.7
There are no rows in this table
⁠

3) Higher the frequency of pawn early on board, higher the probability of hitting a higher reward tier

Probability of total pawns at a given index
Result
Rate of Change
1
Tier 1
-2.08c
2
Tier 2
-1.46c
3
Tier 3
-0.85c
4
Tier 4
-0.09c
5
No Reward*
+1.24c
There are no rows in this table
⁠
here c is 10^e-4

4) Higher tiers tend to have a higher frequency of high-weight pawns at smaller indexes (early on in the board)

Tier 1 consistently shows high percentages of 5s (e.g., Index 29 with 65.12%) and low or zero percentages of 1s. This indicates that players in this tier are performing well, possibly due to higher skill levels or favorable game dynamics.
As you move from Tier 1 to Tier 4, the distribution shifts towards lower scores (3s and 2s), with some indices showing a more balanced distribution in the middle range (e.g., Index 24 in Tier 4).
The "No Result" category shows a high concentration of middle to lower scores, particularly 3s and 2s (e.g., Index 39 with 53.42% for 2s).
Tiers 2 and 3 show more variability in scores, with some indices having a spread across all score categories (e.g., Index 6 in Tier 2 with nearly equal distribution between 4s and 2s).
Certain indices (e.g., Index 26 in all tiers) have distinct patterns, such as high percentages in the middle scores and zero 5s, which may indicate specific gameplay challenges or player struggles.
⁠

Strategically being in Tier 3

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image.png
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