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The AI Risk Klog

A risk-centric Knowledge discovery Log of articles, blog posts, podcasts, and observations in the journey to understand and adopt AI-related technology.
Filippo Marino
Keeping up with the breakneck rate of Artificial Intelligence (AI) innovation since the first public release of ChatGPT is practically impossible while holding a steady job. Everyone is struggling to develop a reasonably accurate and stable mental picture of AI, let alone of emerging applications, risks, and opportunities.
The bias of anything included herein reflects my
personal
⁠
and
professional
⁠
interest and expertise in the domain of
human risk judgment and decision-making (RJDM)
⁠
and risk intelligence.
⁠
CleanShot 2023-06-09 at 16.24.25@2x.png
Highlights #6: The Inevitability of Multi-modal Battlefield AI
6/14/2023
The focus of this knowledge discovery log remains that of AI applications in the intelligence analysis and decision support functions, all from the perspective of a risk JDM and mitigation professional. (I need to remind myself of this here and there as the emergence of fascinating AI-related conversations and applications only grows by the day - quickly pulling us in unrelated directions as we experiment with methods and tools with measurable value-add.)
The past couple of weeks have convinced me that an LLM-driven battlespace decision-support system appears increasingly inevitable if we consider results like
Voyager’’s “embodied agent”
⁠
that can move and act freely and purposefully in a simulated (Minecraft) or real environment. It’s an exceptional result that combines distinct tasks and tactical goals within a larger strategic objective. On the heels of
Meta’s Cicero project
⁠
and the growing
multi-sensory/multimodal
⁠
data ingestion and
training approaches
⁠
, it seems inevitable that one such system will soon be substituting or, at minimum, complementing current military technology.
The most interesting articles and papers this week:
Open
The Atlantic article.png
Highlights #5: Transformers, Agents, and Toxicity.
5/14/2023
The avalanche of AI-related news and innovations didn't slow down much these past two weeks. From a technical standpoint, the most consequential announcements we saw involve the increasing number and power of ChatGPT/LLMs
plugins
⁠
and
transformers agents
⁠
- along with
Anthropic’s release of a 100K context window
⁠
- extending (rather, exploding) these models’ power and potential. Early discussions about
multi-sensory
⁠
,
multimodal
⁠
and multi-model AI (with the obvious AGI implications) are becoming increasingly real, fast.
Our
AI Risk Register
⁠
holds as these remain within the classes and scenarios that have been articulated for some time. That being said, all our
Risk, Uncertainty, and Decision-making (RUD) conversations
⁠
on this subject were (astonishingly) accurately and elegantly summed up in an
article by Jonathan Haidt and Eric Schmidt in The Atlantic
⁠
.
Here’s how
Clarity
⁠
would summarize the article:
Open
brown and white smoke on brown rock formation
Highlights #4: AutoGPT, Jailbreaks, ...
4/18/2023
This past week’s release of
AutoGPT
⁠
was followed - as expected and without delay - by the first (and profoundly deflating) deployment of a
humanity-destroying sequence
⁠
, and accompanied by various
ChatGPT jailbreaks
⁠
. None of this is surprising or beyond the scope of the
risks in our register
⁠
and, in fact, it confirms the critical issues of innovation speed and anticipated lack of self-restraint associated with this technology.
Many of us started experimenting with either localized LLM deployment, with open-source projects like
OpenChatKit
⁠
,
ColossalChat
⁠
, and
Databrick’s Dolly
⁠
, or by bridging ChatGPT and proprietary content with LangChan (
per our last post
⁠
). But if all that is too much for you now, you can still get a sense of what a ‘chat’ with a specific/recent public or private document feels like with
ChatPDF
⁠
, which does a terrific job.
If the concept of synthetic relationships fascinates you as well, you may want to hear this
No Priors podcast episode
⁠
with Noam Shazeer of
Character
⁠
. If you, like us, are approaching this subject from a risk intelligence perspective, you’ll find a certain naiveté about the entire venture (especially around min. 17), which is both disarming and terrifying at the same time.
Open
text
Highlights #3: Prompts, Search vs Chat, 3rd Party Apps,...
4/10/2023
"It's the Prompt, Stupid!" And indeed it seems AI-Whisperers and
Prompt Engineers are the new Data Scientists
⁠
. From overnight marketplaces (
PromptBase
⁠
,
PromptHero
⁠
,
ChatX
⁠
, and so on) to Youtube classes, private training programs, and free, customizable, no-code apps like
Pickaxe
⁠
(which I found to be a great way to get some practice with structured prompting.)
One more Washington Post story about this:
Tech’s hottest new job: AI whisperer. No coding required
⁠
⁠
The two biggest commercial races (at least, for the the next few months) are search integration and proprietary content 'ingestion'. On the former (B2C-first; how to transition from search behavior to a conversation) Bing has taken a bit of a lead on Google (despite what is probably the least imaginative UX solution of the decade), but others like
Neeva
⁠
and
Perplexity
⁠
are trying to reinvent the search box, and they are worth checking out. On the latter front, the ChatGPT
'Copilot' integration with Microsoft 365
⁠
and
Azure
⁠
, along with
Salesforce's Einstein GPT
⁠
are likely to be carry the widest and most immediate business benefits.
Open
five gray-and-brown metal robots
Highlights #2: Control, LLMs Limits, New/Small Models, ...
4/3/2023
Among the more frequent AI risk debates is that of control. On one extreme is the monopoly and dominance argument - one in which the number of state and commercial entities with the know-how and resources to develop and own such technology is increasingly small, and the race winner may achieve unprecedented hegemony, be it economic or geopolitical. On the other end, is the concern with unrestricted access to code, algorithms, and virtual machines capable of unimaginable harm. How the pendulum swings seems to change by the week, but if there is anyone with an opinion worth listening to is Matey Zaharia, CTO of
Databricks
⁠
, who in
this episode of the No Priors podcast
⁠
seems to suggest small models may be capable of achieving greater accuracy with smaller training sets than anticipated (hello VC, Are you listening?)
Directly related to the above, is the enduring debate about the strengths and weakness of Large Language Models (LLMs) vs Symbol Manipulation approaches, and I can't think of a more useful read than Gary Marcus' "Deep Learning Is Hitting a Wall" essay:
https://nautil.us/deep-learning-is-hitting-a-wall-238440/
⁠
⁠
In this terrific Making Sense episode Sam Harris speaks with Stuart Russell and Gary Marcus about recent developments in artificial intelligence, the limitations of Deep Learning the long-term risks of producing Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), and of course, the control problem.
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/making-sense-with-sam-harris/id733163012?i=1000603166437
⁠
⁠
Open
ChatGPT4_capt.png
Early Analytical Experiments
4/1/2023
Can ChatGPT facilitate structured (risk) intelligence analytical efforts? By its own response, it can. Yet, by now, we know that might be just an articulate and probabilistic answer. So we're putting some of these to the test, and getting very interesting results. Before stepping into specific methods, what is most impressive is the OpenAI’s capacity to perform content analysis on the fly:
Entity extraction (people, organizations, etc.)
Relationship mapping
Open
⁠
⁠
Yellow highlight = added/updated this weeks.
Selected News et al
0
1
USAF Official Says He ‘Misspoke’ About AI Drone Killing Human Operator in Simulated Test
Vice
Incident
Alignment
6/1/2023
2
One-third of people can’t tell a human from an AI. Here’s why that matters
VentureBeat
Research
Disinformation
5/31/2023
3
Deepfaking it: America's 2024 election collides with AI boom
Reuters
Disinformation
News
5/30/2023
4
Trump Trolls DeSantis and Musk With a Hitler Deepfake
Gizmodo
Disinformation
Incident
5/25/2023
5
Model evaluation for extreme risks
arXic
Research
Alignment
Safety
5/25/2023
6
PM meeting with leading CEOs in AI: 24 May 2023
GOV.UK
News
Regulation
5/24/2023
7
Donald Trump Shares Fake AI-Created Image Of Himself On Truth Social
Forbes
News
Incident
5/23/2023
8
A tweet about a Pentagon explosion was fake. It still went viral.
Washington Post
Incident
News
Disinformation
5/22/2023
9
How to avoid falling for misinformation, fake AI images on social media
Washington Post
News
Disinformation
Discussion
5/22/2023
10
From Theory to Reality: Explaining the Best Prompt Injection Proof of Concept
rez0
Hacks
5/19/2023
11
https://www.quantamagazine.org/secret-messages-can-hide-in-ai-generated-media-20230518
Quanta Magazine
News
Hacks
5/19/2023
12
Limitations of alignment and AI-regulation
Good Internet
Alignment
Discussion
5/18/2023
13
The first man to lose his job to AI
⁠
haihai.ai
⁠
⁠
Discussion
Alignment
5/12/2023
14
Towards best practices in AGI safety and governance: A survey of...
arXiv
Research
Safety
Regulation
Discussion
5/11/2023
15
AI Hallucinations: The Hidden Risks of Machine Learning
AI Pathways
Summary
News
5/11/2023
16
Old Advocacy, New Algorithms: How 16th century "Devil's Advocates” Shaped AI Red Teaming
Humane AI
Discussion
Safety
Alignment
5/11/2023
17
https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/europe-building-artificial-intelligence-guardrails-99247609/
ABC News
Regulation
5/11/2023
18
A Radical Plan to Make AI Good, Not Evil
Wired
Alignment
Research
News
5/10/2023
19
How To Delete Your Data From ChatGPT
Wired
News
5/9/2023
20
Anthropic thinks 'constitutional AI' is the best way to train models | TechCrunch
TechCrunch
News
Alignment
Safety
5/9/2023
21
https://gh.bmj.com/content/8/5/e010435
BMJ Global Health
Research
Summary
Safety
5/9/2023
22
Peter Thiel's Palantir is seeing 'unprecedented' demand for its military A.I. that its CEO calls 'a weapon that will allow you to win'
Fortune
News
5/9/2023
23
The Moral Machine - Could AI Outshine Us in Ethical Decision-Making?
beyond2060
Discussion
Alignment
5/9/2023
24
Opinion | We Need a Manhattan Project for AI Safety
Politico
Discussion
Regulation
5/9/2023
25
Warren Buffett compares AI to the atom bomb, expresses concerns about its potential dangers
Kumaon Jagram
Discussion
Safety
Alignment
5/5/2023
26
AI voice scams: Report shares 77% of victims lose money, how common it is, and how to protect yourself
9to5Mac
Incident
5/5/2023
27
https://singularityhub.com/2023/05/05/a-note-from-ray-kurzweil-on-the-recent-call-to-pause-work-on-ai-more-powerful-than-gpt-4/
SingularityHub
Safety
Discussion
5/5/2023
28
Microsoft economist warns of A.I. election interference from 'bad actors'
CNBC
News
5/3/2023
29
Opinion | We Are Opening the Lids on Two Giant Pandora’s Boxes
NY Times
News
5/3/2023
30
Amnesty International Uses AI-Generated Images of Human Rights Abuses
Gizmodo
Incident
5/1/2023
31
‘Godfather of AI’ quits Google with regrets and fears about his life’s work
The Verge
News
5/1/2023
32
What Exactly Are the Dangers Posed by A.I.?
NY Times
Summary
News
5/1/2023
33
A Clash of Titans Between Elon Musk and Larry Page over AGI's Future
⁠
Pixelstech.net
⁠
⁠
Discussion
Alignment
4/30/2023
34
'Mom, these bad men have me': She believes scammers cloned her daughter's voice in a fake kidnapping | CNN
CNN
Incident
4/29/2023
35
ChatGPT returns to Italy after ban
The Verge
Regulation
4/29/2023
36
Nuke-launching AI would be illegal under proposed US law
Ars Technica
Regulation
4/28/2023
37
Just Wait Until Trump Is a Chatbot
The Atlantic
Disinformation
News
4/28/2023
38
Yuval Noah Harari argues that AI has hacked the operating system of human civilisation
The Economist
Hacks
News
4/28/2023
39
I Cloned Myself With AI. She Fooled My Bank and My Family.
WSJ
News
Incident
4/28/2023
40
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2304.13712.pdf
arXiv
Research
4/27/2023
41
EXCLUSIVE: China Expert Gives Startling Reason Why CCP Is Requiring AI to ‘Reflect Socialist Values’
NewsBusters
Regulation
4/27/2023
42
MEPs seal the deal on Artificial Intelligence Act
Euractiv
Regulation
4/27/2023
43
Republicans slam Biden re-election bid in AI-generated ad
Axios
Incident
Disinformation
4/25/2023
44
‎The Lawfare Podcast: Margot Kaminski on Regulating AI Risks on Apple Podcasts
The Lawfare Podcast
Regulation
Discussion
4/20/2023
45
Anthropic calls for $15 million in funding to boost the government’s AI risk assessment work
Fast Company
News
Regulation
4/20/2023
46
How prompt injection can hijack autonomous AI agents like Auto-GPT
Venturebeat
Hacks
News
4/20/2023
47
PSA: AI voice cloning and call spoofing create scary convincing scams, here’s how to protect yourself
9to5Mac
News
Safety
4/17/2023
48
Prompt injection: What’s the worst that can happen?
Simon Wilson’s Blog
Hacks
Safety
4/14/2023
49
‎All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg: E124: AutoGPT's massive potential and risk, AI regulation, Bob Lee/SF update on Apple Podcasts
All-In Podcats
Safety
Discussion
4/14/2023
50
‎The Ezra Klein Show: What Biden’s Top A.I. Thinker Concluded We Should Do on Apple Podcasts
Ezra Kline Show
Regulation
Discussion
4/11/2023
51
Can We No Longer Believe Anything We See?
NY Times
Disinformation
Discussion
News
4/8/2023
52
Spinning Language Models: Risks of Propaganda-As-A-Service and...
arXiv
Research
Disinformation
4/8/2023
53
Elon Musk wants to pause 'dangerous' A.I. development. Bill Gates disagrees—and he's not the only one
CNBC
News
4/6/2023
54
ChatGPT is making up fake Guardian articles. Here’s how we’re responding | Chris Moran
The Guardian
News
Disinformation
4/6/2023
55
President Biden delivers remarks on “risks of artificial intelligence”
Ars Technica
News
4/5/2023
56
Three ways AI chatbots are a security disaster
MIT Technology Review
News
4/3/2023
57
https://www.pinecone.io/learn/langchain-retrieval-augmentation/
Pinecone
Research
Hacks
4/1/2023
58
Expert Calls for Bombing Data Centers to Stop Rise of AI
​
Regulation
News
Alignment
3/31/2023
59
How a tiny company with few rules is making fake images go mainstream
Washington Post
Disinformation
News
3/30/2023
60
Opinion | You Can Have the Blue Pill or the Red Pill, and We’re Out of Blue Pills
NY Times
Alignment
News
3/24/2023
61
The AI Dilemma
Center for Humane Technolgy
Alignment
Discussion
News
Research
Summary
3/24/2023
62
Pause Giant AI Experiments: An Open Letter - Future of Life Institute
Future of Life Institute
Discussion
Safety
Regulation
Alignment
3/22/2023
63
OpenAI CEO, CTO on risks and how AI will reshape society
ABC News
Discussion
News
3/17/2023
64
Opinion | Noam Chomsky: The False Promise of ChatGPT
NY Times
Discussion
3/8/2023
65
‎Making Sense with Sam Harris: #312 — The Trouble with AI on Apple Podcasts
Making Sense Podcast
Alignment
Discussion
Research
News
3/7/2023
66
Venezuela Is Using Fake AI American Newscasters to Spread Disinformation
Vice News
News
Incident
Disinformation
2/24/2023
67
Vallas campaign condemns deepfake video posted to Twitter
CBS
Incident
News
2/23/2023
68
https://nvlpubs.nist.gov/nistpubs/ai/NIST.AI.100-1.pdf
NIST Artificial Intelligence Risk Management Framework
Regulation
Safety
1/15/2023
69
REASON
IARPA
Research
1/1/2023
70
AI & Cities: Risks, Applications and Governance | UN-Habitat
UN Habitat
Regulation
Safety
Research
9/1/2022
71
What Do NLP Researchers Believe? Results of the NLP Community Metasurvey
arXiv
Research
Safety
Alignment
8/22/2022
72
AI suggested 40,000 new possible chemical weapons in just six hours
The Verge
News
Safety
5/17/2022
73
A quick guide to the most important AI law you’ve never heard of
MIT Technology Review
Regulation
News
5/13/2022
74
‎Brave New Planet: Deepfakes and the Future of Truth on Apple Podcasts
Brace New Planet Podcast
Disinformation
Discussion
9/12/2020
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⁠
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