Given the growth of the epidemic and the absolute number of cases in both Europe and the US,
right now, the only viable solution is to dramatically reduce the epidemic growth rate by a mandatory quarantine for everyone
(not just the older and the ones with pre-existing conditions) for at least 4-8 weeks. This is because the absolute number of older people and those with previous health issues that are already infected and that will overload the health care systems.
The strategy that I am proposing can only work when the health care system is not overwhelmed and with low number of active cases, such as after the first wave of the epidemic has passed or at the very beginning - perhaps still an option for some lucky countries with very few infections at this time.
Right now, even a relatively small number of additional stress on the health system albeit from a healthier and younger group that would still requite hospitalization (despite being at much lower rates than older people) would be a few too many on top of a stressed health system - filled with older people or those with previous health conditions already requiring urgent care.
But once the first wave of the epidemic is a bit more under control, the biggest threat is a collapse of the economy. And I try to show that the risk is manageable if a very strict lockdown is done for the subgroups of the population for whom this virus is extremely dangerous, while for the others they should maintain the economy going and provide for those subgroups in lockdown.
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