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Shoreline High Density and School Data

* EDS represents Educational Data Solutions forecasted information.
** Apartment data is cross-referenced from
City, Broker, and Construction
⁠
data sources.

Summary

The demography report from Educational Data Solutions (EDS) significantly underestimates the growth of apartment living within the Shoreline School District. This report was a key factor in the decision to close a school. While several challenges exist to the assumptions and trends presented in the report, a clear and quantifiable issue exists regarding the high-density housing forecasts that directly influenced its conclusions.
The data supporting the apartment growth projections was either inaccurate or outdated. After working with the City of Shoreline, we received updated multifamily pipeline data in October 2024 and information from the commercial real estate brokerage industry and construction data analytics firms. Using this updated data, we have drawn conclusions that undermine, if not invalidate, the findings that supported the feasibility of closing a school.
By applying identical calculations and logic to those used in the EDS report, the updated apartment data shows 199-228 additional K-5 students through 2027 are currently unaccounted for (393-451 students across all grades) in district planning, indicating a significant increase in enrollment that must be addressed. Furthermore, the district should expect 8,568 new apartments by 2027 — 4,858 more than initially estimated — concentrated mainly in the west and central areas, disproportionally affecting these schools.
These updated conclusions based on actual construction and planning activity are even reinforced by the Shoreline School District’s own experience in 2023-2024, where “Increase in student actual average enrollment from September through May versus budget” led to a better-than-anticipated year-end budget. During this period, at least 692 apartment homes became available.
Closing an elementary school, particularly one in the west or central part of the district, would risk overcrowding and limit our ability to accommodate this growth. We must ensure that our educational infrastructure is sufficient to effectively support all incoming students.


Key Points

Growth of 199-228 K-5 students through 2027 is not accounted for in district planning.

Total unaccounted K-12 growth estimated at 393-451 through 2027.
8,568 apartments are forecasted by 2027, which is 4,858 MORE than EDS estimates.
96.73% of apartment growth is along or west of I-5, disproportionally effecting these schools.
11,309 apartments have opened in 2024 or are under construction/planned.
All calculations are based on conservative EDS data, including Student Generation Rates (SGR).
Doesn’t account for recent trends underestimating enrollment, which would further amplify effects of our conclusions.
Apartment data is cross-referenced from
City, Broker, and Construction
⁠
data sources.

EDS High-Density Growth Incorrect: 8,568 apartments are forecasted by 2027, 4,858 more than EDS estimates. Based on EDS report logic, the growth of 199-228 K-5 students (393-451 across all grades) by 2027 is unaccounted for in district planning. This must be immediately corrected with a call for a review of closure justification, as the previous forecasts are no longer valid.
K-5 Exceeding EDS High Growth Forecast: EDS Data expected 4,007 K-5 enrolled, but the actual is 4,025 K-5 students. The EDS-recommended forecast predicted this in 2029, while the high forecast predicted 2026. We currently exceed all EDS forecasts.


Shoreline Schools Apartment Demographics Impact

Findings Regarding Apartment Demographics

⁠
⁠

EDS Unaccounted K-5 Growth through 2027, 199-228 students.

Through 2027, 393-451 K-12 students are unaccounted for in current district plans.


Notes on K-5 Apartment Students Update:
All calculation logic based on EDS, including Student Generation Rates (SGR).
Only change from EDS report is apartment actual data and opening dates.
K-5 SGR are disproportionally higher for apartments per EDS.
EDS K-5 SGR baseline for apartments is .041.
EDS “High” Forecast results in a 6.9% increase to .044.
Link to K-12 Tables
SGR All Grade Appartments
⁠
⁠

K-5 Apartment SGR (.041) Update
Year
Actual APTs
EDS APTs
Actual NEW K-5
EDS NEW K-5
Unaccounted K-5 Growth
1
2024
1,503
799
62
33
29
2
2025
1,694
1,299
69
53
16
3
2026
4,465
1,256
183
51
132
4
2027
1,906
1,356
78
56
23
There are no rows in this table
9,568
Sum
4,710
Sum
392
Sum
193
Sum
199
Sum
⁠
K-5 Apartment SGR (.044) Update
Year
Actual APTs
EDS APTs
Actual NEW K-5
EDS NEW K-5
Unaccounted K-5 Growth
1
2024
1,503
799
66
33
33
2
2025
1,694
1,299
75
53
21
3
2026
4,465
1,256
196
51
145
4
2027
1,906
1,356
84
56
28
There are no rows in this table
9,568
Sum
4,710
Sum
421
Sum
193
Sum
228
Sum
⁠



Actual Shoreline Apartments Opened in 2024, Under Construction, or Planned.

Validated from City of Shoreline, Brokers, and Analytics Firms. Source Links below table.

⁠
⁠

EDS Under Reporting Apartments through 2027 by 4,858 units.

⁠
11,309
⁠
units on record,
8,568
⁠
units by 2027


Apartment Projects by Area
Area
Project
Units
Opening
Select list
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
>= 2030
Station South
16
Zinnia
299
2024
Open
299
​
​
​
​
​
​
Paramount Station
35
2024
Open
35
​
​
​
​
​
​
The Line (132 NE 145th St)
241
2025
Construction
​
241
​
​
​
​
​
Convergence Shea - Verdant
550
2025
Construction
​
550
​
​
​
​
​
Ion 149th Apartments
253
2026
Pre-Construction
​
​
253
​
​
​
​
Burl Apartments
172
2026
Pre-Construction
​
​
172
​
​
​
​
Grand Peaks - Shoreline Peak
324
2026
Pre-Construction
​
​
324
​
​
​
​
Paramount Two (305 NE 152nd St)
115
2026
Pre-Construction
​
​
115
​
​
​
​
Salsbury Hts. (14562 6th)
411
2026
Planning
​
​
411
​
​
​
​
MSR Communities (MFR24-1397)
266
2026
Pre-Construction
​
​
266
​
​
​
​
Shoreline III Leeway
364
2026
Pre-Construction
​
​
364
​
​
​
​
Vessel (14800 6th)
159
2027
Planning
​
​
​
159
​
​
​
Shed (14580 6th)
208
2027
Planning
​
​
​
208
​
​
​
Ion Phase 2 (14917 5th Ave NE)
310
2027
Planning
​
​
​
310
​
​
​
Ion Phase 3 (149th & 3rd)
250
2028
Planning
​
​
​
​
250
​
​
Sunset 12 Multifamily - Shoreline
13
Pre-Construction
​
​
​
​
​
​
13
3,970
Sum
334
Sum
791
Sum
1,905
Sum
677
Sum
250
Sum
0
Sum
13
Sum
Station North
11
Kinect Apartments
240
2024
Construction
240
​
​
​
​
​
​
Pinnacle Two
22
2025
Construction
​
22
​
​
​
​
​
OneTrent
197
2026
Pre-Construction
​
​
197
​
​
​
​
Alexan Apartments
412
2026
Construction
​
​
412
​
​
​
​
Deal Investments Project A
280
2026
Pre-Construction
​
​
280
​
​
​
​
18364 3rd Ave NE
135
2026
Planning
​
​
135
​
​
​
​
Deal Investments Project B
280
2027
Pre-Construction
​
​
​
280
​
​
​
Deal Investments Project C
278
2028
Pre-Construction
​
​
​
​
278
​
​
TenReal 19232 5th Ave NE
11
Planning
​
​
​
​
​
​
11
18054 9th Ave NE
155
Planning
​
​
​
​
​
​
155
185th Assemblage
365
Planning
​
​
​
​
​
​
365
2,375
Sum
240
Sum
22
Sum
1,024
Sum
280
Sum
278
Sum
0
Sum
531
Sum
North City
2
Alta Apartments
230
2025
Construction
​
230
​
​
​
​
​
17712 12th Ave NE
42
2025
Construction
​
42
​
​
​
​
​
272
Sum
0
Sum
272
Sum
0
Sum
0
Sum
0
Sum
0
Sum
0
Sum
Aurora North
10
Canopy
476
2024
Open
476
​
​
​
​
​
​
Shoreline 192 (19022 Aurora Ave N)
250
2024
Construction
250
​
​
​
​
​
​
Ion Town Center
203
2024
Open
203
​
​
​
​
​
​
Modera Apartments
399
2025
Construction
​
399
​
​
​
​
​
Two10 (aka Midvale by Vintage)
210
2025
Construction
​
210
​
​
​
​
​
Brea Apartments
386
2026
Pre-Construction
​
​
386
​
​
​
​
Aurora Ave Apartments Phase 2
150
2026
Pre-Construction
​
​
150
​
​
​
​
Evolve (1206 N 185th)
121
2027
Pre-Construction
​
​
​
121
​
​
​
192nd Park & Ride Development Part 1
350
2027
Planning
​
​
​
350
​
​
​
192nd Park & Ride Development Part 2
350
2029
Planning
​
​
​
​
​
350
​
2,895
Sum
929
Sum
609
Sum
536
Sum
471
Sum
0
Sum
350
Sum
0
Sum
Aurora South
5
Shoreline Place Aurora Square Block A
380
2027
Pre-Construction
​
​
​
380
​
​
​
Shoreline Place Aurora Square Block B
350
2029
Pre-Construction
​
​
​
​
​
350
​
Shoreline Place Aurora Square Block C
364
2031
Pre-Construction
​
​
​
​
​
​
364
Shoreline Place Aurora Square Block D
347
2033
Pre-Construction
​
​
​
​
​
​
347
SHAC Aurora
258
Planning
​
​
​
​
​
​
258
1,699
Sum
0
Sum
0
Sum
0
Sum
380
Sum
0
Sum
350
Sum
969
Sum
Ballinger
1
20016 19th Ave NE
98
2027
Planning
​
​
​
98
​
​
​
98
Sum
0
Sum
0
Sum
0
Sum
98
Sum
0
Sum
0
Sum
0
Sum
11,309
Sum
1,503
Sum
1,694
Sum
3,465
Sum
1,906
Sum
528
Sum
700
Sum
1,513
Sum
⁠



View of Source Files
2024 SEATTLE & PUGET SOUND DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE
Broker Data
Shoreline School Project - MFH Data Source - KIDDER MATHEWS - 2024 Development Pipeline (RAW DATA) - Shoreline.xlsx
Dodge Report Multifamily (Shoreline) Sept 2024
Broker Data
Shoreline School Project - MFH Data Source - Dodge Report - Multifamily (Shoreline) 090124.xlsx
Multifamily Pipeline Report August 2024
City Data
Shoreline School Project - MFH Data Source - Shoreline City Data - Multifamily_Pipeline_As_of_August_2024.xlsx
MFTE Data
City Data
Shoreline School Project - MFH Data Source - Shoreline City Data - 2024_MFTE_Report.pdf
⁠
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