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Land in Kedungu Beach | Bukit Vista | Business Intelligence - Forecasting Report | by Jing Cho

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Expiration Date :
July 12, 2023

First Principles

Success in property rentals depends on five crucial factors.
Guest Experience Management: the quality, reliability, and availability of the management company to deliver consistent 5-star guest experiences.
Property Attributes: we give owner our professional evaluation of their property in terms of design, location, product-user fit.
Ranking: in a competitive landscape, ranking should be the single focus of the management company & owner. When good reviews are written, ranking rises. When guests book our property, ranking rises. Ranking is the keystone to both occupancy and higher daily rates, which translates into greater profits for the owner.
Owner Relationship: A great owner relationship makes it possible to attain, preserve or improve ranking and guest experience. We’ve outlined the key points in the ORQ (owner relationship questions) below
Quality of Staff: Quality of staff greatly affects the comfort of guests staying at the property. The friendlier and more considerate you are, the better impression you'll build and encourage guests to leave great reviews.

Owner Relationship Questions

Are you opposed if we set low price for first month of launching to get stable booking pace and have good reviews?
Do you support flexible prices (adjust lower or higher 40% from base price) to have occupancy rate more than 60% each month?
Do you support if we reduce prices on nearly expired dates (last minute discount) and unsold gap nights up to 35% compare to normal price?
Do you have any issue with length of stay with lower rates up to 30% than daily rates? (could be number of days, weekly and monthly)
Do you have any issue if we manage all inquiries received from your side to convert it into booking?

The Bukit Vista Projection Method

We use least, average and reliability to report our forecast and estimation of the revenue potential of a property. We believe this method is elegant and represents the most honest way to set expectations for an owner.
For example, a property with $3,000 USD least & $4,500 USD average, with a 75% reliability means
9 months of the year at an average of $4,500 USD / month
9 months of the year earning at least $3,000 USD / month

Methodology - Qualitative Analysis
Term
Grade
Explanation
Positive Contributors
Negative Contributors
Analysis Method
Data Sources
More Info
1
Location Grade

C-

The popularity of your location, relative to all other potential locations that your potential guest might consider.
Quiet, secluded location.
Location has been pioneered by a Bali Beach Glamping, Pretty Poison & perhaps Potato Head
Endpoint destination, meaning that fewer trips are likely to connect through this location.
Far from Jimbaran, DPS, Seminyak, Uluwatu
Social infrastructure is underdeveloped.
Heat Map Analysis
Airbnb - 2nd party data
Open
2
Design Grade

A

Design influences the desirability of the property and has impact on your ranking potential and ability to defend the ranking. Unique designs will create space & allow your property to create a distinct brand and signature from competitors. This factor has impact on advance bookings. More time to sell the property results in fewer last-minute discounts.
This location you would need to have a fairly strong design to attract visitors
Your design is crucial to get right.
If you use a common design, then your property would face stronger competition from options that are easier & more convenient.
Cluster Analysis - Expert Insight
Airbnb - 2nd party data
Open
3
Product User Fit

C-

Travelers consist of different user segments, they’ll bid at different prices for different travel dates. A property with a high product-user fit will appeal to the greatest number of unique, highest-paying traveler segments across the year. This grade has the greatest influence on your ADR (average daily rate).
Long-term residential tenants looking for affordable rents.
Short-term aspirational seeking an affordable ‘villa’ experience.
Frontier surfers looking for budget accommodations.
This location doesn’t offer much above other locations, so the risk / reward for a holiday is high.
Time Series - User Segmentation Analysis by Booking Behaviors
Data Vista - Bukit Vista’s Data Warehouse - 1st party data
Open
4
Ranking Potential

C

At Bukit Vista, we are experts in attaining ranking for a property across platforms. This metric is our confidence level that your property can achieve a sustainable ranking & thus sustained revenue. This metric has the most impact on your occupancy.
There has been one successful case nearby, Bali Beach Glamping.
A large number of units in a difficult location would result in mutual competition and reduce ranking potential.
Proprietary Method to Bukit Vista
Data Vista - Bukit Vista’s Data Warehouse - 1st party data
Open
5
Ranking Defensibility

D

Once ranking has been achieved, this metric considers the effort to keep the ranking & thus the revenue stable. When ranking is hard to defend, then frequent discounts and special offers are necessary to maintain positioning in the marketplace.
None
Ranking can easily be lost by new properties built closer to Canggu & Seminyak or discounts given to existing properties.
This location is very fragile.
There is a giant development, Ciputra beach resort that will be massively competing with your project if you choose a design too similar to them.
Proprietary Method to Bukit Vista
Data Vista - Bukit Vista’s Data Warehouse - 1st party data
Open
There are no rows in this table
Methodology - Quantitative Analysis
Term
Projection (in IDR)
Explanation
Positive Contributors
Negative Contributors
Analysis Method
Data Sources
Canvas
1
Least

N/A

Least represents the lowest monthly revenue your property is likely to earn in the next 12 months.

N/A

N/A

Calendar multi-block partition method with probabilistic analysis of fitted user segment
Data Vista - Bukit Vista’s Data Warehouse - 1st party data
Airbnb - 2nd party data
Open
2
Average

N/A

Average is the average monthly revenue your property is likely to earn in the next 12 months.

N/A

N/A

Calendar multi-block partition method with probabilistic analysis of fitted user segment
Data Vista - Bukit Vista’s Data Warehouse - 1st party data
Airbnb - 2nd party data
Open
3
Reliabilty

N/A

Reliability is our confidence level to deliver within those two boundaries in the next 12 months. Ranges from 0 to 1.
“0” impossible to predict the revenue performance even for a single month
“1” completely predictable revenue performance for every month of the year

N/A

N/A

Calendar multi-block partition method with probabilistic analysis of fitted user segment
Data Vista - Bukit Vista’s Data Warehouse - 1st party data
Airbnb - 2nd party data
Open
There are no rows in this table

THE BOTTOM LINE

Name of Property
Revenue Category
Gross Amount (per Month) for All Units
Estimated Expenses
Monthly Net to Owner
Reliability
Annual Net to Owner (*)

{Property Name}

2
At least/minimum
Rp0.00
Rp0.00
80%
Rp0.00
Average
Rp0.00
Rp0.00
80%
Rp0.00
*) Before Operational Expenses

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