1. Consider the PQ framing and background
State your initial beliefs about the Pivotal Questions ]
To see the canonical statement of this PQ, its subquestions, and the specific operationalized questions for evaluators to consider, click , and use the filter bar to select this PQ. Express these beliefs in the form and in Metaculus [link] where available. Share your Metaculus ID in the form.
2. Consider and ‘rank’ papers/projects for PQ usefulness
Consider the papers and syntheses for the PQ (”Plant based...”) . Go to and use the filter bars to choose the relevant PQ and methods. You may have been asked to focus on a subset of these only, if so please ignore the others.
You don’t have to read each in full. Use your best judgment; feel free to use NotebookLM (we share a notebook ) to extract summaries and query key features of each. You can use other LLM tools if you wish, but please be transparent about your use and do not rely on them for final judgments. (See our initially proposed AI use policy .) If there’s a paper not on this list that you know is particularly relevant to the pivotal question, please let us know immediately.
Please consider and discuss in your response:
Why (and to what extent) do you think these come to different results from one another? You might consult the GPT “deep research report” we produced differentiating the four scanner-data papers using scanner data (please focus on the response to the final prompt) to get an overall picture of what they did differently. But please use focus on using your own insight and expertise, and check any statements made by the LLM. Which approaches and assumptions do you find most plausible, and why? Rank or otherwise assess the credibility of these in terms of their implications for the pivotal question. Explain and discuss your reasoning (at least briefly); what choices do some of these make correctly/incorrectly etc?
3. Evaluate one paper/project, or a small subset of these carefully
For the paper (or few papers) you find most credible and useful, do a careful evaluation of this work, largely following The Unjournal’s (applied stream) but focusing on the implications for the Pivotal Question.
Some things to consider (add specifics here)
The structure of the overall model Key economic assumptions and empirical characterizations Key assumptions and judgments about …
4. State and justify your (revised) beliefs about the PQ in light of this evaluation and your work above
