Skip to content
PQs: Finalized operationalizations & Metaculus
Choose the “PQ” you’re interested in using the filter bar below to see only the relevant operationalizations and Metaculus questions.
Hover and click the arrows to the left of the question label to expand the row.
Finalized PQs and Metaculus questions
PQ
Question type (see note below)
Search
Question label short version
Full question text
PQ
Question type (see note below)
Notes
Metaculus link
Variants to elicit
Discrete responses to small/large percentage changes in price of Impossible/Beyond Beef on amounts of [target products]
If…
How do plant-based products substitute for animal products (welfare footprint)?
PQ for evaluation
Open
[PRICE FALL%] = 5%, 20%, and to price parity with avg. ground beef
[TARGET PRODUCTS] = b. beef, c. pork, d. shrimp/prawns, and e. fish.
[PBA] = The highest-quality plant-based chicken nuggets’
Will most cultured meat (by volume) be produced with hydrolysates in 2036?
Will most cultured meat (by volume) be produced with hydrolysates in 2036?
Cell-cultured meat cost and price
Subquestion or building-block
Open
Predict-experts: Average production cost of cultured (chicken) per kg (WIP)
At [resolution date ~Dec. 2026], what will be the median of the linearly aggregated beliefs among the set of Unjournal evaluators and experts over the average production cost (per edible kg) of cultured chicken meat at the end of 2051 across all large-scale plants in the world” (I.e., for
direct question, using beliefs given on this platform.)Linearly aggregated: Essentially, adding the pdfs (distributions) vertically and re-scaling these to sum to probability=1. This is not the standard Metaculus aggregation (see discussion here [link]).
Evaluators and experts: Any of the following people who respond to this question –
Cell-cultured meat cost and price
Metaculus
Open
Average cost of growth factors by 2036
What will be the average cost of recombinant growth factors per gram (of input) in commercial cultured meat production in 2036?
Cell-cultured meat cost and price
Subquestion or building-block
Open
Cell media costs in 2036
What will be the cost of cell media per kg of cultured meat in 2036?
Cell-cultured meat cost and price
Subquestion or building-block
Open
Quantity of cell media required to produce 1kg of cultured meat in 2036
What will be the average quantity of cell media, in liters, necessary to produce 1kg of cultured meat in 2036?
Cell-cultured meat cost and price
Subquestion or building-block
Open
Maximum cell density achieved in 20k liter bioreactor by 2036
What will be the highest cell density of cultivated meat produced in a 20,000 liter bioreactor by 2036?
Cell-cultured meat cost and price
Subquestion or building-block
Open
Is cultured meat development a good investment from an animal welfare POV?
What is the expected-value (and probability distribution) of the impact on animal welfare from funding the development of cell-cultured meat?
We could refine this question further to specifically consider:
(i) marginal (aka incremental) funding,
(ii) very high levels of funding, or
(iii) the impact relative to the best alternative animal welfare interventions.
Cell-cultured meat cost and price
Goal-oriented
Open
Food-grade vs pharmaceutical-grade cell media
By 2036, what percent of commercial cultured meat will be produced using food-grade cell media (as opposed to pharmaceutical-grade)?
Cell-cultured meat cost and price
Subquestion or building-block
Open
Price of cultured meat with widespread hydrolysate use
Conditional on “most CM is produced with plant hydrolysates in 2036?”, what will be the average price of 1 kg of cultured meat?
Cell-cultured meat cost and price
Subquestion or building-block
Open
Price of cultured meat without widespread hydrolysate use
Conditional on “most CM is NOT produced with plant hydrolysates in 2036?”, what will be the average price of 1 kg of cultured meat?
Cell-cultured meat cost and price
Subquestion or building-block
Open
What percent of companies will build their own bioreactors by 2036?
What share of cultured meat companies (those with capex over XXX amount) will design and build their own bioreactors by 2036?
Cell-cultured meat cost and price
Subquestion or building-block
Open
How many chickens will be slaughtered for meat globally in the following years?
How many chickens will be slaughtered for meat globally in the following years?
Years: 2025, 2032, 2052, 2122
This question will resolve as the total number of chickens slaughtered for meat in the respective year for the whole world according to. For example, this figure was 70.77 billion in the year 2020.
Cell-cultured meat cost and price
Metaculus
Open
How many metric tons of ≥51% cultured meat costing <$10/kg will be sold from 2020 to 2050?
How many metric tons of ≥51% cultured meat costing <$10/kg will be sold from 2020 to 2050?
Example: the year 2025 will resolve as the average of the years 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025.
Resolution will be via industry statistics from credible sources akin to the FAO & USDA (such as independent credible outside analysts, governments, inter-governmental agencies, the FAO itself, & The Good Food Institute's market research reports.) Evidence of the cultured meat containing a product's listing price and composition should come from credible media reports, online supermarket listings, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.
Cell-cultured meat cost and price
Metaculus
Open
How many metric tons of ≥51% cultured meat will be sold from 2020 to 2050?
How many metric tons of ≥51% cultured meat will be sold from 2020 to 2050?
Example: the year 2025 will resolve as the average of the years 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025.
Resolution will be from industry statistics from credible sources akin to the FAO & USDA (such as independent credible outside analysts, governments, inter-governmental agencies, the FAO itself, & The Good Food Institute's market research reports.)
Cell-cultured meat cost and price
Metaculus
Open
Largest single CM facility capacity by 2030
What will be the largest cultivated meat production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single facility by January 1, 2030?
This question will resolves as the highest reported production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single physical facility that produces cultivated meat products by January 1, 2030.
The following types of evidence would decide the question:
Cell-cultured meat cost and price
Metaculus
Open
What will the lowest retail price, in USD per kg, of any product containing 50% clean meat be, in the calendar year 2029?
What will the lowest retail price, in USD per kg, of any product containing 50% clean meat be, in the calendar year 2029?
Resolution
This question resolves as the lowest reported price, in 2019 USD per kg, of any product listed in a retail supermarkets that contains at least 50% clean meat by weight. Qualifying retail supermarkets are those based in either the U.S. or based in the European Union as of August, 2019, and Switzerland.
Cell-cultured meat cost and price
Metaculus
Open
How much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2030, in millions of USD?
How much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2030, in millions of USD?
Resolution:
This question resolves as a credible estimate of the revenue by companies generated from the sale of clean-meat containing products for human consumption in the U.S., in the [U.S. fiscal year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiscal_year#United_States) 2030. The figure shall be given in millions of USD, in 2019 prices. Qualifying products need to contain at least 1% of clean meat by weight. Clean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body.
Cell-cultured meat cost and price
Metaculus
Open
Reliability of estimating cross-price elasticities/substitution effects
Can cross-price elasticities and substitution effects be reliably and precisely estimated in a context like this?
How do plant-based products substitute for animal products (welfare footprint)?
Subquestion or building-block
Open
Type and cost of experiment to yield useful cost-price elasticity estimates
What sort of (~supermarket) experimental trial would be needed to yield useful estimates of cross-price elasticities for key PBA/~meat pairings, and how much would an informative trial cost?
How do plant-based products substitute for animal products (welfare footprint)?
Subquestion or building-block
Open
Cross-price elasticity threshold that justifies funding PBAs
How high a cross-price elasticity (or rate of substitution) between key products (say, plant-based beef & chicken breasts) would be necessary to justify funding R&D for PBAs?
How do plant-based products substitute for animal products (welfare footprint)?
Subquestion or building-block
Open
No results from filter
The table below explains each of these ‘question type’ categories.
Question type
Description of question type
PQ for evaluation
The focal pivotal question that PQ-evaluators should prioritize.
Goal-oriented
These address the broader or more actionable questionof direct interest to partner organizations. Generally less tractable for direct evaluation, but worth keeping in mind.
Metaculus
Posted/to be posted in our (a prediction platform) and potentially in Metaculus main stream. PQ- evaluators and our experts & stakeholder team should state their beliefs on the platform and share their ID with us. Other question types may also be given this tag if they are posted on Metaculus.
Candidate PQ
Not official yet. ~For internal discussion.
Subquestion or building-block
Secondary questions PQ-evaluators should address, if they have capacity. Some of these may be ‘key factors’ informing the “PQ for evaluation”. Others may be adjacent PQs that are also high-value (but prioritized slightly below the ‘PQ for evaluation’).
There are no rows in this table
Goal-focused questions: These explain the actionable goal of the question writ large. Not easy to evaluate, but worth bearing in mind.
Variants to elicit
Ideally, weigh in on all of these, if you have time.
Want to print your doc?
This is not the way.
This is not the way.
Try clicking the ⋯ next to your doc name or using a keyboard shortcut (
CtrlP
) instead.