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12/15/2025

WEEKLY MARKET DATA SUMMARY

Week Ending: December 13, 2025

⁠

KEY CALLOUTS

Memory is the story — DRAM/NAND prices up 80-100% QoQ is the most actionable data point. MU earnings will be massive. Every tech company with memory exposure (AAPL, server OEMs, smartphone makers) faces BOM pressure.

Oil is breaking down — Brent at $61, EIA forecasting $55 in Q1. This is a significant earnings headwind for energy names and a tailwind for transports/airlines.

Precious metals having historic year — Gold +64%, silver +109% YTD. This isn’t just a trade, it’s a structural shift in central bank reserves.

Dollar weakness — Down 10% in 2025, at 2-month lows. Multinational earnings translation flipping from headwind to tailwind.

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ENERGY

Price

WoW Δ

MoM Δ

YoY Δ

52-Wk Range

WTI

$56.93

-0.5%

-5.3%

-19.0%

$55-$81

Brent

$60.80

-0.5%

-5.3%

-17.7%

$55-$87

Nat Gas

$4.23

-6.4%

+22.8%

$1.90-$5.19

RBOB Gas

$1.85

-2.0%

-4.5%

-12.0%

$1.75-$2.40

There are no rows in this table

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EIA Inventories (week ending Dec 5):

Crude: -1.8M bbl — bullish draw, 426M bbl total (4% below 5-yr avg)

Gasoline: +6.4M bbl — bearish build (1% below 5-yr avg)

Distillates: +2.5M bbl — bearish build (7% below 5-yr avg)

US Production: 13.7M b/d | Refinery Util: 94.5%

What it means: Oil under severe pressure — IEA forecasts record supply glut, Brent headed to $55 in Q1 2026. Oversupply narrative dominating despite geopolitical noise (Ukraine drone strikes on Russian refineries, Venezuela tanker seizures). Nat gas volatile on weather — spiked to $5.19 early Dec on cold snap, now retreating on warmer forecasts. XOM/CVX facing 20% YoY oil price headwind; consensus EPS estimates likely too high if oil stays sub-$60.

⁠

PRECIOUS METALS

Price

WoW Δ

YTD Δ

52-Wk Range

Gold

$4,320

+1.2%

+64%

$2,650-$4,382

Silver

$62.50

-2.0%

+109%

$30-$65

There are no rows in this table

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What it means: Historic year — gold up 64% YTD (best since 1979), silver doubled. Fed’s third 25bp cut this week + $40B T-bill purchases supporting metals. Central bank buying continues (China, Poland, India). Silver added to US critical minerals list in Nov. Gold/silver ratio compressing — silver outperforming on industrial demand (solar, EVs, data centers). Real yields falling supportive. Some profit-taking Friday but structural bid intact.

⁠

INDUSTRIAL METALS

Price

WoW Δ

YoY Δ

Context

Copper (LME)

$11,536/t

+6.1%

+27%

LME inventory depleted

Copper (US)

$5.28/lb

-0.1%

+31%

Near 4-mo highs

Aluminum

$2,875/t

-0.7%

Flat

Stable

There are no rows in this table

⁠

What it means: Copper rallying on China stimulus signals + Fed cut. LME touched $11,952 intraday (near $12K psychological level). Supply tight — Chile/Peru output disruptions (ore grades, water, permits). BUT: Tariff-driven flows distorting market — US COMEX stocks swelling as metal diverts from LME. Goldman sees $10,710 avg in H1 2026, warns of surplus. FCX benefiting but watch for mean reversion.

⁠

MATERIALS

Price

WoW Δ

YoY Δ

Context

Lumber

$558/mbf

+0.3%

+3%

52-wk: $496-$699

Steel HRC

~$750/t

Flat

-5%

Industrial demand soft

There are no rows in this table

⁠

What it means: Lumber range-bound despite Fed cut optimism. Housing starts still below last year — elevated inventories from tariff front-running. Canadian duty hike to 30% expected mid-2025 could spike prices. HD/LOW margins stable but no catalyst. Steel weak reflecting manufacturing softness — CAT/DE commentary will matter.

⁠

SEMICONDUCTORS

Price/Change

Trend

Context

DRAM

+80-100% QoQ

↑ surging

Supply crisis emerging

NAND

+15-20% Q4

↑ rising

AI/cloud demand

DDR4

+100% YoY

↑ spiking

Legacy capacity cut

Lead Times

26-39 weeks

Extended

LPDDR5X severely constrained

There are no rows in this table

⁠

What it means: MEMORY CRISIS ACCELERATING. Samsung/SK Hynix raised Q4 contract prices 15-30%. Manufacturers diverting capacity from legacy DRAM to HBM (3x wafer consumption). DDR4 production falling to 20% of 2025 levels by 2026. Team Group reports Dec prices up 80-100%. Smartphone BOM costs surging — Xiaomi citing memory for price hikes. MU positioned well — Q2 guide should be strong. NVDA supply still constrained. Consumer RAM/SSD prices rising into 2026.

⁠

RATES

Level

WoW Δ

Context

10Y Treasury

4.16%

-5bps

Post-Fed cut, T-bill buying

2Y Treasury

4.10%

-8bps

Fed at 3.50-3.75%

2s10s Spread

+6bps

+3bps

Mild steepening

Fed Funds

3.50-3.75%

-25bps

Third cut of 2025

There are no rows in this table

⁠

What it means: Fed cut 25bps as expected, signaled 1 more cut in 2026. Started $40B T-bill purchases to ease money market strains. Powell ruled out hikes. Dissenters: Schmid (inflation “too hot”), Goolsbee (wanted to wait). Curve mildly steepening — modest positive for bank NII (JPM). Real yields falling supports gold, growth stocks. 10Y above 4% still pressures REIT valuations.

⁠

CURRENCIES

Level

WoW Δ

Trend

DXY

98.4

-2.0%

3-week decline, 2-mo low

EUR/USD

1.05

+1.5%

Recovering

USD/CNY

7.25

+0.3%

Gradual weakening

USD/JPY

152

+1.0%

Yen pressure continues

There are no rows in this table

⁠

What it means: Dollar weak — third straight weekly decline. Fed dovishness vs hawkish repricing in Europe/Canada/Australia weighing on USD. DXY down ~10% in 2025. Weak dollar TAILWIND for multinational earnings translation (reversal from 2024). EUR strength helps US exporters. CNY depreciation signals China weakness.

⁠

FREIGHT

Level

WoW Δ

Context

Baltic Dry

2,205

-15.9%

7-day slide, Nov low

Container

Softening

-5%

Post-peak normalization

There are no rows in this table

⁠

What it means: BDI had worst week since January — capesize rates plunging on low cargo volume. Iron ore/coal demand soft. Container rates normalizing post-holiday inventory build. Red Sea diversions continue (Maersk not returning yet). FDX/UPS seeing normal seasonal patterns — Thursday earnings will provide peak season read.

⁠

INDICES (Context)

Level

WoW Δ

Context

SPX

6,827

-1.1%

Down from 6,900 area

NDX

23,195

-1.7%

Tech profit-taking

RTY

2,551

-1.5%

Small caps lagging

VIX

16.4

+4.2%

Elevated but not stressed

There are no rows in this table

⁠

KEY THEMES THIS WEEK

Fed delivered 25bp cut, $40B T-bill buying — dovish lean

Oil collapsing on oversupply — Brent headed to $55

Gold/silver historic year — central bank + ETF demand structural

MEMORY CRISIS — DRAM/NAND prices surging 80-100%, supply tight

Dollar weakness — 3rd straight weekly decline, 2025 low

Copper strong on China stimulus hopes + supply disruption

BDI plunging — dry bulk demand very weak

⁠

BELLWETHER IMPLICATIONS

Ticker

Implication

XOM/CVX

Oil headwind severe, EPS estimates at risk

Memory pricing surge = blowout Q2 likely, guide up

NVDA

Supply still tight, demand unabated, memory costs rising

JPM

Steeper curve mild NII positive, credit still clean

HD/LOW

Lumber stable, housing data more important than lumber

FDX (Thu)

Peak season read, tariff impact, cost cuts — key event

FCX

Copper strength supportive but watch for pullback

AAPL/smartphones

Memory costs rising = BOM pressure

There are no rows in this table

⁠

Sources: EIA, LME, FRED, CME, TradingEconomics, Baltic Exchange

Prepared: Dec 15, 2025

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