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Macro Investing Net
Last edited 6 minutes ago by Ted Broomfield.
1
FRIDAY FORWARD
1/25/2026 - The week ahead is dominated by the FOMC decision Wednesday (widely expected hold at 3.50-3.75%) and a massive Mag 7 earnings parade — MSFT, META, TSLA Wednesday; AAPL Thursday. Markets enter the week mixed (S&P ~6,916, -0.5% WoW) with elevated valuations (22.7x forward P/E) but exceptional GDPNow (5.4%) complicating the Fed’s path. The central tension: blowout GDP growth vs. sticky core PCE (Thursday) creates asymmetric risk for equities — strong earnings could be overshadowed by hawkish Powell. Key tell: watch Fed language on neutral rate recalibration given 5%+ GDP prints. Bellwether earnings from UNH, BA, GM (Tue), CAT, V, MA (Thu) will test “broadening” narrative beyond tech.
TEN BAGGERS
SPEC TRADES
7/28/2025 - U.S. Treasury Quarterly Refunding.
7/29/2025 - June 2025 [Forecast - 7.1 million; May 7.8 million, forecast - not available yet]
7/31/2025 - [Prior - 7/19/2025 - 217K, down 4k from 7/12/2025 221k; 4-week moving average was 224.5K, down 5K from the 7/12/2025 unrevised 4-week average of 229.5K]. Next release 7/31/2025.
7/31/2025 - 6/2025 [Income - Forecast 0.5%; Prior -0.4%; Outlays - 0.2%; Prior -0.1%]
7/30/2025 - [Prior 49.7 in June 2025 from May’s 49.5, matching expectations while marking the third consecutive month of contraction in factory activity]
8/1/2025 - . Flash US output July 2025 54.4 vs. June 2025 52.9, a 7-month high; July 2025 Flash PMI US Services Business Activities 55.2 vs. June 2025 52.9 a 7-month high, July 2025 Flash US Manufacturing Output July 2025 51.2 versus 53.1, a 2-month low; July 2025 Flash PMI Manufacturing 49.5 vs. June 2025 52.9, a 7-month low. Key commentary on inflation in services as well as inputs, close to Fall 2022 levels of changes. August 2025 Flash US PMI 8/28/2025.
8/4/2025 - - Advance June 2025 311.8, down 9.8%, revised up $0.4 bn on the May 2025 $344, up 16.6%. Note excluding transportatiopn that was driven by May 2025 airline orders, orders were up 0.2%. dates Advance - 8/26/2025; Full - 9/3/2025; Advance 9/25/2025; Full - 10/2/205; Advance - 10/27/2025; Full 11/4/2025; Advance 11/26/2025; Full 12/5/2025; Advance 12/24/2025.
8/7/2025 - June 2025. [Inventories $905.5 down 0.3%, revised April 908.3, up 0.1%, with sales were $697.2 down 0.3% sequentially, but up 4.8% year over year]Next release 9/10/2025.
8/7/2025 - 7/8/2025 - June 2025 [May 2025 - increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.2% to $5.05 trillion. Revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 3.2 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.8 percent. Next release 9/5/2025.
8/12/2025 - - [Forecast none available as of 7/15/2025; June 2025 0.3% and 2.7% with Core 0.2% and 2.9% versus forecast 0.3%, 2.6%] is 9/11/2025.
8/14/2025 - - -
July 2025 [Prior - unchanged for June 2025, with increase of 0.3% for goods, offset by a decrease of 0.1%. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 2.3 percent for the 12 months ended in June 2025. Forecast - 0.3%; prior 0.1%]. 9/10/2025.8/14/2025 - . [June 2025 $526 bn in, vs $499 bn out, cumulative 2025 4.0 trn in, vs. $5.346 trn out, net negative 3.338 trn] Next report 9/11/2025.
8/15/2025 - July 2025 - [June 2025 - Industrial Production up 0.3%, after being flat in April and May 2025. IP increased at an annual rate of 1.1 percent in 2Q2025. Manufacturing outputincreased 0.1% in June 2025, with mining down 0.3%, utilities up 2.8%. At 104.0 percent of its 2017 average, total IP in June was 0.7 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization moved up to 77.6 percent, a rate that is 2.0 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2024) average]. Next is 9/16/2025.
8/15/2025 - June 2025 [June 2025 - up 0.6% from revised May 2025 $715.5 bn, down 0.9%, versus forecast - 0.2%; prior May 2025 $715.4 bn down 0.9%, versus revised April 2025 of 722.0, down 0.1%]. 9/16/2025, 10/16/2025, 11/14/2025, 12/17/2025.
8/19/2025 - of Revised June 2025 [June 2025 - 1.397 Permits, up 0.2% from May 2025 revised 1.394, down 4.4% year over year; May 2025 - Permits: 1.39 mm, down 2.0% from revised April 2025 rate of 1.42 mm, and down 1.0% from May 2024 1.41 mm]. Revised July 2025 on 8/25/2025, Advance August 2025 on 9/17/2025, Revised August 2025 on September 24, 2025.
8/19/2025 - Quarterly E-Commerce.
8/21/2025 - The Conference Board . [Prior June 2025: declined 0.3% in June 2025. May 2025 was revised up to no change in May 2025, from –0.1% originally reported. LEI fell by 2.8% over 1H2025, faster than the –1.3% contraction in 2H2024]. Next release expected 9/22/2025.
8/21/2025 - - Down 2.7% to 3.93 mm, lower than the Forecast 4.0 mm. Median price was $435,300, up 2% year over year. Prior 4.03 mm, up 0.8% sequentially, down 0.7% annually]. Next release 9/21/2025.
8/25/2025 - of Revised June 2025 [Forecast - ; Prior - Premits: building permits 1.39 mm, down 2.0% from revised April 2025 rate of 1.42 mm, and down 1.0% from May 2024 1.41 mm]. Advance August 2025 on 9/17/2025, Revised August 2025 on September 24, 2025, Advance September 2025 on 10/17/2025, Revised September 2025 on 10/24/2025.
8/26/2025 - Advance June 2025 - [Prior May 2025 [Prior May 2025 $343.6 bn, up 16.4%, April 2025 revised 295.3, up 6.6%]. dates Full - 9/3/2025; Advance 9/25/2025; Full - 10/2/205; Advance - 10/27/2025; Full 11/4/2025; Advance 11/26/2025; Full 12/5/2025; Advance 12/24/2025.
8/27/2025 - - [Forecast 4.0 mm. Prior 4.03 mm, up 0.8% sequentially, down 0.7% annually]. Next release 9/24/2025.
8/28/2025 - . Flash US output July 2025 54.4 vs. June 2025 52.9, a 7-month high; July 2025 Flash PMI US Services Business Activities 55.2 vs. June 2025 52.9 a 7-month high, July 2025 Flash US Manufacturing Output July 2025 51.2 versus 53.1, a 2-month low; July 2025 Flash PMI Manufacturing 49.5 vs. June 2025 52.9, a 7-month low. Key commentary on inflation in services as well as inputs, close to Fall 2022 levels of changes.
OTHER MACRO REPORTS
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