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Macro Investing Net
Last edited 57 days ago by Ted Broomfield.
1
NEWEST IDEAS AND ANALYSIS
7/17/2025 - GE Beat & raised, with a negative response. GE reported $1.66 adjusted EPS on $11.02 billion in revenue. Expectations were for $1.43 adjusted EPS on $9.52 bn. Guided to 2025 adjusted EPS to $5.60 to $5.80 EPS, from previous range of $5.10 to $5.45; 2026 EPS of $8.40. Trading approximately 31.0 X 2026-PE Ratio.
improved, with labor stable, but prices universally up, ostensibly tariff related
7/10/2025 - - Two Members ready to cut; still two 25 bps cuts expected this year. Next meeting 7/29-30/2025.
7/8/2025 - Copper soars on proposed 50% tariffs; still developing on potential inflation and negative impact on names like NVTS and POWL.
7/5/2025 - BUY
[AI assisted], Mid-Cap heavy equipment seller to those who rent to end users and end users can benefit from three (3) tax incentives in OBBBA, as follows: (i) 100% immediate tax expense of purchase by customers, reducing cash outflows to purchase; (ii) 100% immediate tax deduction of non-retail structures, increasing incentives to build and increasing demand for equipment; and (iii) increased tax deductibility of interest, reducing cash requirements of customers to buy TEX’s equipment. 6/19/2025. Empirically with unemployment, inflation, and fed funds rates expectations all up, and GDP, S&P 500 earnings expectations down, it is difficult to reconcile the FOMC’s conclusion that economic uncertain has decreased. Expect .
6/14/2025. ZURVY ($34.63) ON WEAKNESS, BECAUSE EARNINGS AND DIVIDENDS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE
6/6/2025 ($41.35)
WATCH FOR A POSSIBLE BUY. 6/14/2025 Falls 20% Premarket on Proposed elongation of solar tax incentives.Despite likely end to green energy subsidies in proposed 2025 tax bill, ENPH is the leader and is likely to eventually resume growth.
Industrial electrical equipment and provisioning company, 3,100 employees, $1.08 bn revenue. Thesis - POWL, HQ in Houston, 3,187 employees, sells industrial electrical equipment to Liquid natural gas facilities and utilities, generating more than a billion dollar in sales and in excess of $14 EPS the trailing twelve months. POWL has experienced increasing growth rates of sales and earnings, while expanding margins since fiscal 2021. Meanwhile, the P/E ratio has compressed to just over 14X. POWL plays into the electrification theme. POWL has 12.1 mm shares outstanding, 9.4 mm float, with 1.78 mm short interest, or 18.9%, representing 5.2 average volume (341k) trading days. The idea was presented by Joe Presti, through a technical analysis-based investor friend, citing the three-month base between $155 to $190 since March 2025.
LATEST PORTFOLIO
Added [Prices may be rounded]
8/4/2025 - Bought NVTS at $8.07
7/23/2025 - Bought GOOG at $191.84 and 100 ENPH Call 8/1/2025 expiration, $48.50-strike contracts at $0.03
6/25/2025 - Exchange of $55.00 cash for X; exited position, X discontinues trade.
6/13/2025 - X at $51.75
6/13/2025 - NVTS at $7.58
6/10/2025 - POWL at $185.00
6/6/2025 - POWL at $190.00
4/7/2025 - TSLA at $230.92
4/4/2025 - QQQ at $433.10
4/4/2025 - RXRX at $4.31
4/3/2025 - NVTS at $1.63
COMING UP
7/28/2025 - U.S. Treasury Quarterly Refunding.
7/29/2025 - June 2025 [Forecast - 7.1 million; May 7.8 million, forecast - not available yet]
7/31/2025 - [Prior - 7/19/2025 - 217K, down 4k from 7/12/2025 221k; 4-week moving average was 224.5K, down 5K from the 7/12/2025 unrevised 4-week average of 229.5K]. Next release 7/31/2025.
7/31/2025 - 6/2025 [Income - Forecast 0.5%; Prior -0.4%; Outlays - 0.2%; Prior -0.1%]
7/30/2025 - [Prior 49.7 in June 2025 from May’s 49.5, matching expectations while marking the third consecutive month of contraction in factory activity]
8/1/2025 - . Flash US output July 2025 54.4 vs. June 2025 52.9, a 7-month high; July 2025 Flash PMI US Services Business Activities 55.2 vs. June 2025 52.9 a 7-month high, July 2025 Flash US Manufacturing Output July 2025 51.2 versus 53.1, a 2-month low; July 2025 Flash PMI Manufacturing 49.5 vs. June 2025 52.9, a 7-month low. Key commentary on inflation in services as well as inputs, close to Fall 2022 levels of changes. August 2025 Flash US PMI 8/28/2025.
8/4/2025 - - Advance June 2025 311.8, down 9.8%, revised up $0.4 bn on the May 2025 $344, up 16.6%. Note excluding transportatiopn that was driven by May 2025 airline orders, orders were up 0.2%. dates Advance - 8/26/2025; Full - 9/3/2025; Advance 9/25/2025; Full - 10/2/205; Advance - 10/27/2025; Full 11/4/2025; Advance 11/26/2025; Full 12/5/2025; Advance 12/24/2025.
8/7/2025 - June 2025. [Inventories $905.5 down 0.3%, revised April 908.3, up 0.1%, with sales were $697.2 down 0.3% sequentially, but up 4.8% year over year]Next release 9/10/2025.
8/7/2025 - 7/8/2025 - June 2025 [May 2025 - increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.2% to $5.05 trillion. Revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 3.2 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.8 percent. Next release 9/5/2025.
8/12/2025 - - [Forecast none available as of 7/15/2025; June 2025 0.3% and 2.7% with Core 0.2% and 2.9% versus forecast 0.3%, 2.6%] is 9/11/2025.
8/14/2025 - - -
July 2025 [Prior - unchanged for June 2025, with increase of 0.3% for goods, offset by a decrease of 0.1%. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 2.3 percent for the 12 months ended in June 2025. Forecast - 0.3%; prior 0.1%]. 9/10/2025.8/14/2025 - . [June 2025 $526 bn in, vs $499 bn out, cumulative 2025 4.0 trn in, vs. $5.346 trn out, net negative 3.338 trn] Next report 9/11/2025.
8/15/2025 - July 2025 - [June 2025 - Industrial Production up 0.3%, after being flat in April and May 2025. IP increased at an annual rate of 1.1 percent in 2Q2025. Manufacturing outputincreased 0.1% in June 2025, with mining down 0.3%, utilities up 2.8%. At 104.0 percent of its 2017 average, total IP in June was 0.7 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization moved up to 77.6 percent, a rate that is 2.0 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2024) average]. Next is 9/16/2025.
8/15/2025 - June 2025 [June 2025 - up 0.6% from revised May 2025 $715.5 bn, down 0.9%, versus forecast - 0.2%; prior May 2025 $715.4 bn down 0.9%, versus revised April 2025 of 722.0, down 0.1%]. 9/16/2025, 10/16/2025, 11/14/2025, 12/17/2025.
8/19/2025 - of Revised June 2025 [June 2025 - 1.397 Permits, up 0.2% from May 2025 revised 1.394, down 4.4% year over year; May 2025 - Permits: 1.39 mm, down 2.0% from revised April 2025 rate of 1.42 mm, and down 1.0% from May 2024 1.41 mm]. Revised July 2025 on 8/25/2025, Advance August 2025 on 9/17/2025, Revised August 2025 on September 24, 2025.
8/19/2025 - Quarterly E-Commerce.
8/21/2025 - The Conference Board . [Prior June 2025: declined 0.3% in June 2025. May 2025 was revised up to no change in May 2025, from –0.1% originally reported. LEI fell by 2.8% over 1H2025, faster than the –1.3% contraction in 2H2024]. Next release expected 9/22/2025.
8/21/2025 - - Down 2.7% to 3.93 mm, lower than the Forecast 4.0 mm. Median price was $435,300, up 2% year over year. Prior 4.03 mm, up 0.8% sequentially, down 0.7% annually]. Next release 9/21/2025.
8/25/2025 - of Revised June 2025 [Forecast - ; Prior - Premits: building permits 1.39 mm, down 2.0% from revised April 2025 rate of 1.42 mm, and down 1.0% from May 2024 1.41 mm]. Advance August 2025 on 9/17/2025, Revised August 2025 on September 24, 2025, Advance September 2025 on 10/17/2025, Revised September 2025 on 10/24/2025.
8/26/2025 - Advance June 2025 - [Prior May 2025 [Prior May 2025 $343.6 bn, up 16.4%, April 2025 revised 295.3, up 6.6%]. dates Full - 9/3/2025; Advance 9/25/2025; Full - 10/2/205; Advance - 10/27/2025; Full 11/4/2025; Advance 11/26/2025; Full 12/5/2025; Advance 12/24/2025.
8/27/2025 - - [Forecast 4.0 mm. Prior 4.03 mm, up 0.8% sequentially, down 0.7% annually]. Next release 9/24/2025.
8/28/2025 - . Flash US output July 2025 54.4 vs. June 2025 52.9, a 7-month high; July 2025 Flash PMI US Services Business Activities 55.2 vs. June 2025 52.9 a 7-month high, July 2025 Flash US Manufacturing Output July 2025 51.2 versus 53.1, a 2-month low; July 2025 Flash PMI Manufacturing 49.5 vs. June 2025 52.9, a 7-month low. Key commentary on inflation in services as well as inputs, close to Fall 2022 levels of changes.
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