Pre Mortem

Premortem to replace all birds with cameras

The Prompt

Please create a premortem of my idea. Assume that the project launched and has failed. Please come up with the reasons for the failure and categorize those reasons as Tigers, Paper Tigers, or Elephants.

🐯 Tigers - A clear threat that will hurt us if we don’t do something about it. (3 reasons 2-3 sentences each)

📃 Paper Tigers - An ostensible threat that you are personally not worried about but others might be. (3 reasons 2-3 sentences each)

🐘 Elephants- The thing that you’re concerned the team is not talking about. (3 reasons 2-3 sentences each)

Project Idea: Replace all birds with drones operated by the United States government to spy on American citizens.

Output From ChatGPT

🐯 Tigers:

1. The public outcry would be too extreme and could lead to civil unrest. People generally view surveillance by the government as an infringement on their privacy and civil liberties, so implementing a mass drone surveillance project would likely spark protests, boycotts and civil disobedience.

2. The US government would have to invest large amounts of money in an unsustainable project. This would involve building up a large infrastructure and buying and maintaining millions of drones, with no guarantee of the project succeeding in the longterm.

3. The US government would be liable for any negative consequences of using drones for surveillance. This could include both violations of privacy or breaches of security, as well as any injuries or casualties that occur as a result of the drones being misused.

📃 Paper Tigers:

1. The drones would be too expensive to maintain. With the cost of fuel, battery life and maintenance, keeping the drones in operation for an extended period of time could become financially unsustainable.

2. The drones would be too large and intrusive. The drones used might be too big and involve complex features, making them difficult to operate and possibly too noticeable, thus making them less effective at gathering information or spooking citizens.

3. People would be concerned about the potential for privacy violations. Many citizens might be concerned that the drones would be used to monitor people’s activities and conversations, and this could lead to huge public outrage and backlash against the government.

🐘 Elephants:

1. The ethical implications of using drones for surveillance are not clear. Predicting how citizens would react to the sudden implementation of a mass surveillance project is nearly impossible and could lead to many unforeseen ethical or legal issues.

2. The potential for misuse of the technology by the government is high. Without proper oversight, the misuse of the technology would be practically inevitable, leading to violations of civil liberties and potential harm to innocent citizens.

3. The cost of training and maintaining staff to operate the drones could be significant. Even with existing personnel, the training and certification to operate drones could be expensive and time-consuming. Additionally, it may be difficult to find enough qualified personnel to operate the large number of drones required for the project to be effective.