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COVID & Vaccines

Lets try to figure this out.

Note: The questions and answers below are incomplete. This is a work in progress.

Vaccination

What is the purpose of vaccinations?

To minimize and prevent the extent of COVID sickness in an individual

effectiveness appears to decline over time

To minimize spread of COVID

The vaccinated are 8x less likely to become infected in the first place (

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)

Vaccinated people are contagious for a shorter period (

link⁠

)

If vaccinated people transmit just as much as the unvaccinated, why is vaccination necessary?

Is getting COVID better than getting the vaccine in terms of immunity?

An Israeli study shoed that natural immunity offered stronger protection than full vaccination (

link⁠

)

Why should those who had COVID get vaccinated?

The answer to this question is not clear, and Fauci said so himself (

link⁠

)

The durability of natural immunity is not yet clear

The amount of natural immunity among those who had covid is also not clear (for example, older people who had mild illness had fewer antibodies).

Some studies showed that 30-40% of people who had COVID had no antibodies at all (

link⁠

)

One study showed that unvaccinated people who already had Covid were more than twice as likely to get reinfected as those who had also been vaccinated (

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)

A CDC

study⁠

found people hospitalized with coronavirus-like symptoms were more than five times more likely to test positive for COVID-19 if they had had recent prior infection than if they were recently vaccinated. The study examined more than 7,000 people across nine states and 187 hospitals, comparing those who were unvaccinated and had previously had the coronavirus in the last three to six months and those who were vaccinated over the same time frame. (

link⁠

)

CDC Director

Rochelle Walensky⁠

said at a press briefing earlier this week that the hospitalization rate among unvaccinated people is 12 times higher than for vaccinated people. (l

ink⁠

)

140 Research Studies Affirm Naturally Acquired Immunity to Covid-19: Documented, Linked, and Quoted (

link⁠

)

Should adults get vaccinated?

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According to the CDC⁠

, the rate of anaphylactic reaction from the vaccines is roughly two per 1,000,000 people, or 0.000002. By comparison,

according to the CDC⁠

, the death rate from lightning strikes in the US is roughly one per 500,000, or 0.000002. So, you have the same chance of dying from a lightning strike as you do from going into vaccine anaphylactic shock.

⁠

According to the CDC⁠

, two confirmed cases of thrombosis have resulted from administration of the Moderna vaccine out of 328 million doses worldwide, which would be roughly the equivalent of getting struck by lightning 300 times in one year.

The risks of myocarditis and pericarditis are slightly higher—there have been 716 reports of incidents (not deaths) out of over 300 million doses.

There is

no evidence whatsoever⁠

that the vaccines cause infertility in women.

A final objection to vaccines is that the death rate from COVID-19 is so low that it’s not worth the risk of getting vaccinated.

As of August 12th, 2021⁠

, 619,723 Americans have died out of the 36,446,791 reported COVID-19 cases, or 0.017. Compare that to the aforementioned worst-case vaccine death total (which is probably an order of magnitude too high) of 6,490 out of the 346 million vaccine doses, or 0.000018. That’s three orders of magnitude lower. If a person’s house is on fire they don’t stop to worry about the possible consequences of inhaling fine particles from the fire extinguisher chemicals.

(

link⁠

)

Should children get vaccinations?

99.995% of the 469,982 children in England who were infected during the year examined by researchers survived, one study found. (

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)

Underlying health conditions, especially serious brain or nerve-related disabilities, increased the risk of dying of Covid-19, according to the study looking at child deaths.

The studies were pre-delta variant but no evidence that the variant causes more severe illness or death among children.

Risk of myocarditis has been shown to be much higher for infected children under 16 years old compared to their uninfected peers (

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)

The risk of myocarditis in kids who receive the vaccine is much lower (

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)

A study from August 2021 concluded that for boys ages 12-15, the risk of heart problems after a second dose of the COVID-19 vaccine is 3.7 to 6.1 higher than their risk of being hospitalized for COVID-19 (link)

Author said risk of heart problems is lower now as pediatric hospitalization rates have gone up (link)

Scientists and doctors expressed concerns about the dates of the study (period was before vaccine was authorized for teens) and about use of unvetted VAERS data

The CDC in July released information based on its own

analysis⁠

of reports involving myocarditis among people who received an mRNA COVID-19 vaccine. Using VAERS data that had been vetted and confirmed, it determined that there may be a link between myocarditis and vaccination, particularly among boys: “Per million second doses of mRNA COVID-19 vaccine administered to males aged 12–29 years, 11,000 COVID-19 cases, 560 hospitalizations, 138 ICU admissions, and six deaths due to COVID-19 could be prevented, compared with 39–47 expected myocarditis cases after COVID-19 vaccination.” (

link⁠

)

This is backed up by Israeli data (

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)

Statement of Abstention on EUA for vaccine for 5-11 year old from Dr. Michael Kurilla (

statement⁠

tweet⁠

)

Children already demonstrate asymptomatic COVID infections about 50% of the time, and this increases with younger ages

According to CDC data, at least 40% of children aged 5 through 11 have experienced a prior COVID infection

The reinfection rate for 5-11 year olds appears to be very low

Further research: FDA advisory panel for 5-11 YO EUA (

link⁠

)

First, here’s what’s clear: There is an increased risk of myocarditis associated with the second doses of both the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines, both of which use a new technology called mRNA. In those ages 12 to 15, 39.9 cases per million were reported to the Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System after dose two of the Pfizer vaccine. In those ages 16 or 17, 69 cases per million have been reported. In those ages 18 to 24, the rate is 36.8 per million per million for the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine and 38.5 per million for the Moderna vaccine. Those are all higher than the background rate of the condition.

Oster also provided some background on what is traditionally known about myocarditis. It is normally more common in males in their late teens, and rates decline steeply as they age through their 30s and 40s. (The hypothesis, he says, is that testosterone levels play a role.) That seems to mirror what is being seen with the vaccines, and it might indicate that risk will be smaller for 5- to 11-year-olds than it is for teens.

Children with vaccine-associated myocarditis seem to mostly have characteristics that predict they’ll recover smoothly, including hearts that are still pumping normal amounts of blood. But they do have some results on magnetic resonance imaging that could indicate long-term effects, Oster said. Those are being followed.

At current rates of infection, the benefits outweigh the risks. If the infection rate drops as low as it has ever been, it’s a closer call. But the models also use a rate of myocarditis for older kids. It probably won’t be as common in younger kids. And if you believe that, once again, the picture changes. See all three charts below.

First, a model with high rates of Covid-19.

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An FDA model indicating the risk-benefit of the vaccine if Covid-19 cases are at their peak.

This is what happens Covid-19 infections decline.

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An FDA model of what happens if the cases Covid-19 fall to the lowest level seen since the pandemic.

And finally, here’s a model with a lower risk of myocarditis.

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What if the risk of myocarditis is lower than the FDA’s estimate? Here’s what the FDA’s model says.

Are vaccines safe for children under 12?

Pfizer and BioNTech said they hadn’t yet determined vaccine efficacy in childen under 12. Not enough young subjects in the study have become sick to compare rates between children who got a vaccine and those who got a placebo. (

link⁠

)

There appeared to be fewer side effects such as fever and chills among younger children who got the vaccine compared with 16-to-25-year-olds, according to Pfizer.

Kids would get 10 micrograms vs 30 for adults.

Spacing out the doses - statement from Pfizer:

William Gruber, Pfizer’s senior vice president for vaccine clinical research and development, appeared to acknowledge the dosing schedule may need work. But he said when the vaccine was being developed and tested, the pandemic was raging and the goal was to protect people as quickly as possible.

“Obviously as we think farther ahead to a post-pandemic period, and particularly as we get into very younger populations, it may be advisable … particularly in that first year of life, to look at longer intervals as part of a routine immunization series,” Gruber said. “But we don’t have that data now.” (

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)

What are the long-term effects of vaccines?

It appears to be entirely normal to track long-term effects of essentially one-time use vaccines over decades after full approval (

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)

The fact that vaccines are essentially since dose, and vaccines do not remove or significantly attenuate biological functions in your body that can increase risk of opportunistic infections.

All but one other component of the mRNA vaccines are substances that can be found in comparable or greater amounts in milk products, soft drinks, fruits, or Jell-O.

The final, most essential ingredient, of course, is some messenger RNA (mRNA) molecules which are delivered and translated, but they subsequently decay and disappear entirely over the days following vaccination, without the possibility for renewal. After all, we have no gene to refresh the vaccine-delivered mRNA encoding the spike protein. Once this mRNA is cleared from our bodies, the spike protein too is gone, having shortly existed as just one of tens of thousands of proteins in any given cell.

If we remove concern about the core components of a vaccine, the only way long-term adverse events could arise is due to the immunization response itself…This complex, specific and intricate process spans a number of months. Ultimately, though, in the absence of further stimulation by new copies of the spike protein, the immune response settles down, and effector cells—those directly and transiently involved in fighting the virus—decrease in frequency.

These vaccines are undergoing basically the largest study ever, with almost 400 million doses of the Pfizer & Moderna vaccine have been administered to date in the United States alone.

That has been done over the course of more than 10 months now.

Any significant effects from these vaccines should be widely known, understood, and reported at this point.

What are the long-term effects of COVID?

Guillain-Barre Syndrome (GBS) & AstraZeneca Vaccine

[

link to read⁠

]

Comparison of Vaccine Complications to COVID Complications

The equation may be valid from a medical perspective, but not necessarily for the vaccine hesistant, or from a public policy perspective. If people were mandated to either get COVID or get the vaccine, then the comparison would be valid. But how do you compare the risk of vaccine complications to the risk of covid complications if you don’t get covid? Maybe if you assume everyone gets covid eventually, then the math works. Need to think more about it.

Boosters:

In the NIH study, the people with the highest overall antibody levels were those who received the Moderna vaccine for their first two doses and Moderna as a booster. Next came people who got the Pfizer vaccine and a Moderna booster, followed by Moderna and a Pfizer booster. (

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Resignation of Marion Gruber (director of the FDA's Office of Vaccines Research and Review -

OVRR) and Phil Krause (OVRR deputy director)

(

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)

Their resignations at the end of August were reportedly sparked by frustration and anger over the Biden administration's decision in mid-August to begin offering booster doses as soon as the week of September 20. According to FDA sources, Gruber, Krause and others at the agency felt the decision was premature and overstepped the FDA's role in greenlighting the use of boosters. (

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)

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https://www.newsblur.com/newsletters/story/8342282:4588f8⁠

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/11/29/booster-shots-universal-opinion/⁠

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In effect, the rich are maintaining a long-term reservoir of potentially devastating new variants in the poorer countries in order to make themselves a little bit more secure in the short term. (

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Comparison to other types of vaccine releases:

This twitter thread (

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)

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Immunity

Is getting COVID better than getting the vaccine?

An Israeli study shoed that natural immunity offered stronger protection than full vaccination (

link⁠

)

Why should those who had COVID get vaccinated?

The answer to this question is not clear, and Fauci said so himself (

link⁠

)

The durability of natural immunity is not yet clear

The amount of natural immunity among those who had covid is also not clear (for example, older people who had mild illness had fewer antibodies).

Some studies showed that 30-40% of people who had COVID had no antibodies at all (

link⁠

)

One study showed that unvaccinated people who already had Covid were more than twice as likely to get reinfected as those who had also been vaccinated (

link⁠

)

Is COVID and one vaccine dose the best way to get immunity?

The CDC (

link⁠

) and several studies say yes (

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)

Can you get COVID multiple times?

Treatment

Should Ivermectin be used to treat COVID?

There appear to be issues with the studies that we currently have regarding effectiveness for treating COVID (

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)

There are a number of ongoing studies that are investigating further but results don’t look positive

What are monoclonal antibodies?

Laboratory-made proteins that mimic the immune system's ability to fight off harmful pathogens such as viruses. They are a way to help prevent severe symptoms from developing in those that are already infected.

Why would using monoclonal antibodies be OK but vaccines would not be?

Level of Vitamin D3 appears to be inversely correlated with COVID outcomes (

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)

Masking

What kind of masking is effective?

Most cloth masks appear to be ineffective against the spread of COVID for adults in places with low natural immunity and low vaccination rates (

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)

Even the Bangladesh RCT from Stanford does not appear to demonstrate efficacy (

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)

What are the downsides to masking?

COVID

What are the long-term effects of COVID?

What are the actual risks from COVID?

COVID & 5-11 Year Olds

Fiona Havers, a medical officer with CDC’s Covid epidemiology task force, described a disease impact that is at least as significant on kids as is the annual flu epidemic — or at least the flu epidemics in the pre-Covid era. (Flu activity has been at historic lows since March of 2020.)

There have been at least 1.9 million Covid infections among all children, Havers said, noting that because many children have asymptomatic infections or very mild symptoms, that number is likely to be an underestimate. Kids 5 to 11 have recently begun to make up a bigger portion of all Covid infections; in the week ending Oct. 10, they made up 10.6% of the nation’s Covid cases.

Covid hospitalizations among children in this age group are about on a par with those reported in some recent flu seasons, Havers said, though not the 2019-2020 season that preceded the pandemic; it was a long and intense flu season. There have been 8,300 pediatric Covid hospitalizations to date, with rates three times higher among Black, American Indian, Alaska Native, and Hispanic children as for white children.

While deaths among children hospitalized for Covid were similar to deaths among children hospitalized for flu — 0.6% — other outcome measures suggest Covid hospitalizations among kids involved somewhat more severe disease, she said. For instance, they were more likely to require intensive care and to need mechanical ventilation.

In the period from Jan. 1, 2020, to Oct. 16, 2021, 94 children aged 5 to 11 died from Covid in the United States, Havers said. And more than 5,200 children have been diagnosed with Covid-related multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children or MIS-C, a difficult condition that can occur in some children after an infection.

Children do experience long Covid, but at lower rates than adults, Havers said. A survey in the United Kingdom found that between 7% and 8% of children report continuing symptoms 12 weeks or longer after infection.

She also noted that illness isn’t the only toll Covid is taking on kids. They are losing school time, with more than 2,000 unplanned school closures so far this school year affecting more than 1 million children. (l

ink⁠

)

Regulation

Should vaccines be mandated?

If not, why not? If so, by whom, at what level? Some

thoughts here⁠

The libertarian angle and externalities

What are the limitations of government responsiblities for public health?

Why are those who have had covid still required to be vaccinated?

Are vaccine passports a good idea?

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Evaluating the number of unvaccinated people needed to exclude to prevent SARS-CoV-2 transmissions⁠

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What is the purpose of the lockdowns?

What happened with Australia’s lockdowns and why?

How does the risk from COVID compare to other types of risks?

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https://spectrum.ieee.org/technologists-are-trying-to-make-covid-19-risk-assessment-more-of-a-science⁠

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https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/22/well/live/putting-the-risk-of-covid-19-in-perspective.html⁠

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https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/06/22/whats-your-risk-from-coronavirus-new-study-suggests-lower-than-we-perceive⁠

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Origin

What is the United States funding coronavirus research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology?

It appears so [citation needed]

The February 2020 letter in The Lancet discrediting the lab leak theory outright was written by a team of scientists who were probing the origins of COVID-19. The leader of the commission was Peter Daszak, who runs EcoHealth Alliance, a nonprofit that uses U.S. funds for studies on bat coronaviruses with the Wuhan Institute of Virology (

link⁠

)

On the episode of Honestly with Dr. Vinay Prasad, Bari Weiss said that 26 out of 27 doctors that signed the letter had conflicts of interest. Is that true?

Beyond the geopolitical face-saving, why would China want to cover up a lab leak?

The cooperation of the United States and other western countries with China appears to have been conducted under the premises of science is unimpeachable, which the Communist Party in China has repeatedly proved is not the case.

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