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Hypotheses

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Not every founder is made the same, but some are the same “founder type”.
We are defining “founder type” as a TBD cluster that arises from founders sharing similar results from personality tests, application questions, productivity tracking data, demonstrated skills, and more.
Our primary hypothesis is that for each founder type there exists a specific environment in which that founder type is most productive, in which they create more highly valued startups, and in which they have a lower chance of experiencing depression.
To test this hypothesis we are putting the founders in environments and monitoring how features of that environment influence their focus, the valuations of their startups, and their mental health. We plan to collect data from existing founders and failed founders to expand our data set.
As we learn which founders thrive in which environments, we will work to create new programs that foster environments for all founder types.
Below you can see a list of variables that we can tweak to find ideal environments for our fellows.
Primary Variables of Environment to Test
0
Variable
Values we are testing
Possible values to test
1
Housemates
living with peers
living with family
living with friends
living with a romantic partner
living with kids
living alone
2
Location
Foreign Countries
SF, Miami, Austin, Denver, ...
Location with new language
Hometown
3
Length of time in city
3 months
1 year+
1 month
6 months
4
Startup Idea Origination
being given an idea
original
copying competitor
5
Prior Work Experience
working for many companies [0-inf)
work experience is in the same industry as startup
​
6
Prior Work Environment
remote but with some team members IRL
fully remote
hybrid
in office
7
Work Environment
co-working space
working from home (solo)
working from home (with peers)
in office
8
Cofounder
time spent as friends before cofounders [0-inf)
living together or separate
number of shared interests
types of activities experienced together before cofounding
9
Activities
tracking time + number of days spent working out
time + number of days spent enjoying hobbies
routine tracking
There are no rows in this table
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Our Hypotheses

1

Hypothesis 1:
With 32 million dollars over 7 years, we will own 10% of at least one billion dollar company (100 mil, 3X our returns). In the following 7 years we will reduce our operating expenses and produce more unicorns.
Method of Verification 1:
At the end of 2030, counting the number of fellow’s who start a company that is valued at 1 billion.
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2

Hypothesis 2:
The percentage of fellows who go through Venture Years that report cases of anxiety and depression will be less than those who go through the typical college education system.

Relevant variables:
mental health of founders
Method of Verification 2:
Fellows will self record emotional states using
MagicFlow’s
⁠
interface.
The latests statistics on the mental health of college students. Such as a recent survey paper which found that pre covid, 21% of non-Chinese college students experienced depression and 19% of non-Chinese college students experienced anxiety [
NCBI
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].
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3

Hypothesis 3:
The more time spent between cofounders before founding the company, the higher the valuation of their company will be, and there will be a lower likelihood of either founder reporting cases of depression and anxiety.


Relevant variables/metrics:
time spent with your cofounder
valuation of company
mental health of founders
Method of Verification 3:
(for brevity, only listing those that have not yet been stated)
We will collect the student’s GPS location to measure time spent together.
Fellows will report to their coach when they are pursuing a new startup idea with another fellow.
On a yearly basis, we will check our fellow’s startup’s valuations and see if their startup’s valuation and their mental health levels have a statistically significant correlation with the variable “time spent with cofounder before company formation”.
Evidence:
“the best people to start companies with are always people that you've got some sort of personal experiences, where you kind of know the character and how they're going to respond to those tough situations.” [
Y Combinator
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]
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4

Hypothesis 4:
We suspect to see that the more time someone spends exploring the online and the physical worlds before deciding on a startup to raise funds for, the more likely they are to raise funds successfully, and the less likely they are to experience depression or anxiety.

Method of Verification 4:
Seeing if percentage of times VC’s said “yes” and mental health have a statistically significant correlation with the duration of time from program start to the time of company formation.

Relevant variables:
date founder commits to idea
percentage of times VC’s said yes/no
mental health of founders
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5

Hypothesis 5:
On average, the more companies someone has worked for, the higher their startups valuation will be. The rational is that individuals are more creative after being exposed to different methods of running a company. More creativity results in more unique solutions which make is easier to differentiate from the competition.

Method of Verification 5:
Seeing if there is a statistical correlation between the number of unique companies a founder has worked for and the valuation of their company.
Relevant variables:
unique companies individuals have worked for at least 1 month
valuation of company
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6

Hypothesis 6:
There will be distinct groups of founder personality types that do better when they come up with their own idea, and there will be founder types that do better when they come up with an original idea.

Method of Verification 6:
We will have a list of startup ideas that they can pursue. We will compare the valuations of the startups that are founded based on these ideas.
Students will take Myer Briggs, Enneagram, and Big 5 personality tests before and after the program to help determine founder type.
Relevant variables:
origination of founder’s startup idea
valuation of company
mental health of founders
personality traits of founders
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7

Hypothesis 7:
On average, the more cultures someone has lived in, the higher their startups valuation will be.


Method of Verification 7:
Seeing if there is a statistical correlation between the number of unique cultures a founder has lived in and the valuation of their company.
Evidence:
Individuals are more creative after being exposed to different ways of living. More creativity results in more unique solutions which make is easier to differentiate from the competition.
Relevant variables:
unique cultures individuals have lived in for at least 1 month
valuation of company
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