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Trading Journal GBPUSD

Model explained here:

Copy of Table
Trades
Ticker
Position
Days
open Date
Close time
Sessions
1H POI
1H P/D?
with 1H bias
HOD/LOD
NY bias
SL
results
RR
Target reached
Duration
Notes
1
Monday
06/04/2020, 7:45 AM
06/04/2020, 9:25 AM
2
1 hr 40 mins
Open
2
Tuesday
07/04/2020, 7:05 AM
07/04/2020, 7:40 AM
-1
35 mins
Open
3
Wednesday
08/04/2020, 3:00 AM
08/04/2020, 6:05 AM
2
3 hrs 5 mins
Open
4
Thursday
09/04/2020, 3:30 AM
09/04/2020, 6:00 AM
2
2 hrs 30 mins
Open
5
Thursday
09/04/2020, 8:45 AM
09/04/2020, 8:55 AM
2
10 mins
Open
6
Tuesday
14/04/2020, 3:00 AM
14/04/2020, 5:05 AM
0
2 hrs 5 mins
Open
7
Wednesday
15/04/2020, 7:35 AM
15/04/2020, 8:20 AM
2
45 mins
Open
8
Thursday
16/04/2020, 2:00 AM
16/04/2020, 3:10 AM
0
1 hr 10 mins
Open
9
Monday
20/04/2020, 7:20 AM
20/04/2020, 10:25 AM
0
3 hrs 5 mins
Open
10
Tuesday
21/04/2020, 4:50 AM
21/04/2020, 5:15 AM
2
25 mins
Open
11
Wednesday
22/04/2020, 3:20 AM
22/04/2020, 5:05 AM
2
1 hr 45 mins
Open
12
Friday
24/04/2020, 3:05 AM
24/04/2020, 3:20 AM
0
15 mins
Open
13
Monday
27/04/2020, 8:20 AM
27/04/2020, 10:05 AM
-1
1 hr 45 mins
Open
14
Tuesday
28/04/2020, 2:10 AM
28/04/2020, 2:26 AM
-1
16 mins
Open
15
Tuesday
28/04/2020, 2:55 AM
28/04/2020, 3:08 AM
-1
13 mins
Open
16
Tuesday
28/04/2020, 9:00 AM
28/04/2020, 9:26 AM
1
26 mins
Open
17
Wednesday
29/04/2020, 2:09 AM
29/04/2020, 3:00 AM
1
51 mins
Open
18
Thursday
30/04/2020, 3:12 AM
30/04/2020, 3:15 AM
-0.5
3 mins
Open
19
Thursday
30/04/2020, 8:17 AM
30/04/2020, 9:06 AM
1
49 mins
Open
20
Monday
11/05/2020, 11:30 AM
11/05/2020, 12:39 PM
0
1 hr 9 mins
Open
There are no rows in this table
⁠
Win Rate 2
⁠
Equity curve RR 2
⁠
Sessions 2
⁠
Days 2
⁠
Months 2
⁠


April analysis:

Win Rate of April
⁠
Wins: 10 of 19 trades - 52.63%
BEs: 4 of 19 trades - 21.05%
Losses: 5 of 19 trades - 26.32%
Profit Factor (without risk reduction) =Total wins / total loss (10*2)/ 5 = 4
Profit Factor (reduced risk due to drawdown) = 3.87

Interpretation:

Consistency: A win rate of 52.63% with a 2R target is strong. Combined with a high profit factor (above 3.5), the strategy is profitable and well-executed.
Drawdown Management: The ability to recover while reducing risk (profit factor still near 4) underscores excellent capital preservation skills.
Trade Frequency: With 19 trades in a month, your frequency is moderate. This suggests you are selective in entering trades, which is a sign of discipline and focused execution.

Recommendations:

Optimize BEs: Investigate break-even trades. Are you moving stops too quickly? Could some have turned into winners with more patience?
what if you use the BR as your SL











Long vs Short
⁠
Long Trades: 9 of 19: 47,37%: 44,44% W, 22,22% BE, 33,33% L
Short Trades: 10 of 19: 52,63% 60% W, 20% BE, 20% L


Performance by position of April
⁠

Interpretation

Short Trades: Higher win rate (60%) and lower loss percentage (20%) suggest you're more successful trading shorts.
Long Trades: Lower win rate (44.44%) and higher loss percentage (33.33%) indicate room for improvement when going long.
The month has closed as a consolidation, That’s why we see a balanced between longs and wins.
Did I follow the 1H bias?

Equity curve of April (RR)
⁠
Return, %: 12.86% (12.5 R)
Consecutive wins: 3
Consecutive losses: 3
Drawdown: -3R
Reduce the risk to 0.5R after the drawdown
Equity Curve Stability: The equity curve shows steady growth with a temporary dip (drawdown of -3R) that recovers due to the adjustment in risk. This indicates good risk management and discipline during difficult periods.
Impact of Drawdown Recovery:
Reducing risk to 0.5R during the drawdown likely prevented deeper losses and enabled gradual recovery. This adaptation demonstrates effective risk management.
Highlight the importance of maintaining emotional control during a drawdown and making strategic adjustments.
Consecutive Losses and Wins:
With 3 consecutive losses and wins, the equity curve doesn’t show extreme spikes, which is a good sign of consistency.
What to do? Analyze if the losing streak coincides with specific market conditions or errors in execution.
Break-Even Trades: Break-even trades may be slightly limiting overall performance. Reassessing the break-even rule could improve profitability without increasing risk (e.g., waiting longer to move the stop to BE).
Capital Utilization: A return of 12.86% in one month is exceptional when compared to industry benchmarks. However, it’s important to ensure this performance is repeatable and scalable without overexposing capital.
Scalability: Consider whether the current strategy can handle larger capital while maintaining similar returns and managing slippage or liquidity issues.
Psychological Resilience: Successfully recovering from drawdowns and maintaining performance metrics shows strong emotional discipline, a critical component of consistent trading.

with 1h bias or not
⁠
17 of 19 trades were following 1H bias (89.47%): 52.94% W, 23.53% BE, 23.53% L
1 of 19 trades didn’t follow the 1H bias (10.53%) with 50% W and 50% L
Even we had a consolidating month, and we had a balanced between the Long and Short, more than 89% of trades were following the 1H bias.
with 1h bias P/D?
⁠
Most of the trades are within P/D, with Higher win rate and lower Loss rate
2 trades of 19 were not executed neither on P or on D resulting a 50% win rate and a 50% Loss

Weekly performance of April
⁠
Week 1: 5 trades (80% W, 20% L, 0% BE)
This week reflects strong performance, suggesting either favorable market conditions or highly effective trade execution.
The lack of break-even (BE) trades indicates confidence in trade management.
You maximized opportunities without hesitation, setting a strong foundation for the month.
Week 2: 3 trades (33.33% W, 0% L, 66.67% BE)
A notable reduction in wins and an increase in BE trades.
While there were no outright losses, the inability to reach targets highlights potential challenges like market hesitations or premature stop movements.
The high BE percentage suggests a need to reevaluate your stop-moving criteria or account for volatility near target zones.
Week 3: 4 trades (50% W, 0% L, 50% BE)
Performance is balanced, showing caution or choppier market conditions.
No losses reflect discipline, but BE trades again highlight challenges in fully capitalizing on trade opportunities.
Maintaining control over losses is positive, but the high BE rate suggests you might be leaving profits on the table.
Week 4: 7 trades (42.86% W, 57.14% L, 0% BE)
Your win rate dropped below 50%, combined with a loss rate higher than any other week.
The absence of BE trades suggests you either tightened your trade exits or were committed to letting trades run to their full outcomes
A higher trade volume coincides with a sharp increase in losses and a lower win rate.
The absence of BE trades implies more decisive outcomes, but the increase in losses highlights deteriorating market conditions or overtrading.
Drawdown in week 4:
The combination of higher trade frequency and a lower win rate contributed to the 3R drawdown.
Psychological factors might have played a role:
Were you trying to "recover" from losses, leading to more trades than usual?
Were trades forced, or were market conditions unusually challenging during this week?
Response to the Drawdown:
Risk Reduction: Dropping the risk to 0.5R per trade was an excellent decision. It not only limited further losses but allowed you to regain confidence slowly while remaining active.
Target Adjustment: Shifting your target to 1R instead of 2R after the drawdown:
This change prioritized psychological recovery by increasing the likelihood of smaller wins.
The equity curve shows a gradual recovery, indicating that this approach worked.
Trade Frequency:
This increased activity during a period of underperformance might suggest overtrading. Overtrading in response to losses often amplifies drawdowns.

Key Lessons from Week 4

Risk Management During Drawdowns:
Reducing risk was the right decision. By halving your risk, you effectively controlled the downside while remaining engaged with the market.
Consider implementing a rule to automatically reduce risk when a specific drawdown threshold (e.g., 2R or 3R) is reached.
Trade Frequency Control:
Exceeding your average trade count during a challenging week might have contributed to the drawdown.
Establish a weekly trade limit (e.g., maximum of 5 trades) to avoid overtrading in emotional or volatile market conditions.
Market Conditions:
Analyze the market dynamics during Week 4. Were there:
Increased volatility?
Low-probability setups you might have avoided in hindsight?
This could help refine your trade selection criteria for challenging weeks.
Psychological Resilience:
Week 4 likely tested your discipline. However, your decision to reduce risk and adjust targets shows strong psychological adaptability.
Consider incorporating structured breaks or reflection periods during losing streaks to avoid overtrading or emotional decision-making.

What to do?

Average trades taken per week: 4 => we can limit ourselves to take: 3-5 trades per week.
Reduce the risk for last week by 25% anticipating a challenging week while protecting the profits.
with 1h bias P/D? 2
⁠
ERL: 9 of 19 trades (47.36%): 67% W - 22% L - 11% BE
IRL FVG: 5 of 19 trades (26.31%): 60% W - 20% L - 20% BE
IRL OB: 4 of 19 trades (21.05%): 25% W - 50% L - 25% BE
IRL FVG + OB: 9 trades of 19 (47.36%): 44% W - 33% L - 23% BE
None: 1 of 19 trades (5.28%): 100% BE
Daily performance of April
⁠
Monday: 3 of 19 trades (15.78%): 33.33% W - 33.33% L - 33.33% BE
Tuesday: 6 of 19 trades (31.57%): 33.34% W - 50% L - 16.66% BE
Wednesday: 4 of 19 trades (21.05%): 100%W
Thursday: 5 of 19 trades (26.31%): 60% W - 20% L - 20% BE
Friday: 1 of 19 trades (5.29%): 100% BE
Performance by sessions of April
⁠
London Session: 11 of 19 trades (57.9%): 45.46% W - 27.27% L - 27.27% BE
NY Session: 8 of 19 trades (42.1%): 62.5% W - 25% L - 12.5% BE
NYKZ: 6 of 19 trades (31.57%): 50% W - 33.33% L - 16.67% BE
NY AM: 2 of 19 trades (10.53%): 100% W

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