Risk Factors

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Interest rate risk

Please see
and below for a resource we're using to figure out the interest rate Vs nasdaq risk better.


Historical patterns indicate limited risk to nasdaq value from just interest rate increases. Economic and many other risks are surely real and present -- but this is attempting to isolate just the effect of the 10 year yield. Regardless, it is hard to dispute that stocks are high in value now -- in historical terms. However, what about compared to real estate, commodities, other stores of value today? I am not so sure. What is the "quality" store of value for the years ahead? This still feels like the really hard question.

Treasuries outlook through 2023

according to the Wells Fargo Investment Institute ... the Fed’s balance sheet could shrink by almost $1.5 trillion by the end of 2023, taking it down to around $7.5 trillion. And if QT continues as expected, “this $1.5 trillion reduction in the balance sheet could be equivalent to another 75 – 100 basis points of tightening,” at a time when the fed-funds rate is expected to be around 3.25% to 3.5% ... The target range of the fed-funds rate is currently between 0.75% and 1%.

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