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BearFox-1
Just Hedge
March 30, 2022 (YTD results)
Risk Factors
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Risk Factors

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Interest rate risk

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Please see
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and below for a resource we're using to figure out the interest rate Vs nasdaq risk better.

Bottom-line

Historical patterns indicate limited risk to nasdaq value from just interest rate increases. Economic and many other risks are surely real and present -- but this is attempting to isolate just the effect of the 10 year yield. Regardless, it is hard to dispute that stocks are high in value now -- in historical terms. However, what about compared to real estate, commodities, other stores of value today? I am not so sure. What is the "quality" store of value for the years ahead? This still feels like the really hard question.
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Treasuries outlook through 2023

according to the Wells Fargo Investment Institute ... the Fed’s balance sheet could shrink by almost $1.5 trillion by the end of 2023, taking it down to around $7.5 trillion. And if QT continues as expected, “this $1.5 trillion reduction in the balance sheet could be equivalent to another 75 – 100 basis points of tightening,” at a time when the fed-funds rate is expected to be around 3.25% to 3.5% ... The target range of the fed-funds rate is currently between 0.75% and 1%.
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