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Pivotal questions database (Public)
See for a clearer view of the chosen ‘operationalizations’ for the PQs under evaluation.
This is a work in progress.
Pivotal questions for pilot
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How do plant-based products substitute for animal products (welfare footprint)?
What are the effects of increasing the availability of animal-free foods on animal product consumption? Are alternatives to animal products actually used to replace animal products, and especially those that involve the most suffering? Which plant-based offerings are being used as substitutes versus complements for animal products and why?
In progress
Impact of price, quality, and availability of plant-based meat products on animal product consumption, measured in animal welfare footprint terms. Differentiate by product.
Ultimately, this may involve estimating whole demand systems and production functions (Informing their “What are the economics of the animal protein and plant-based alternatives markets?” question)
Discrete responses to small/large percentage changes in price of Impossible/Beyond Beef on amounts of [target products]
#r2
Trying out a question [Metaculus candidate]
Reliability of estimating cross-price elasticities/substitution effects
Type and cost of experiment to yield useful cost-price elasticity estimates
Cross-price elasticity threshold that justifies funding PBAs
Predict-experts: Animal welfare benefit of plant-based meat vs best alternative Animal Welfare intervention
Animal Welfare (markets, attitudes)
80%
Substitution patterns and price response for plant-based meat alternatives
Are Plant-Based Analogues Replacing Cow’s Milk in the American Diet?
Demand for Plant-Based Meat Alternatives and the Role of Habit Formation and Variety Seeking
Most plant-based meat alternative buyers also buy meat: an analysis of household demographics, habit formation, and buying behavior among meat alternative buyers
Estimating the effect of moving meat-free products to the meat aisle on sales of meat and meat-free products: A non-randomised controlled intervention study in a large UK supermarket chain
Addressing concerns about sustainability and animal welfare: Investigating consumers' adoption and behavioral intention towards plant‐based eggs
Price-, Taste-, and Convenience-Competitive Plant-Based Meat Would Not Currently Replace Meat (~EAF post)
Why Are Fewer Grocery Shoppers Buying Meat? Declining
Grocery Sales, Prices, and Cultural Change
Are all meats substitutes? A basket‐and‐expenditure‐based approach.
Assessing Cross-Price Effects of Meat Alternatives on Beef, Pork, and Chicken Retail Demand in 2022
Does the advertising of plant-based burgers attract meat consumers?
Assessing Cross-Price Effects of Meat Alternatives on Beef, Pork, and Chicken Retail Demand in 2022
Price elasticities of meat, fish and plant-based meat substitutes: evidence from store-level Dutch supermarket scanner data
Plant-Based versus Conventional Meat in Food Away From Home Settings: Substitution, Complementarity, and Market Impacts
Meet the Meatless: Demand for New Generation Plant-Based Meat Alternatives
Consumer spending patterns for plant-based meat alternatives
Market potential of new plant-based protein alternatives: Insights from four US consumer experiments
Nutritional implications of substituting plant-based proteins for meat: evidence from home scan data: Agricultural and Food Economics
(DR): Funding for plant-based product innovation. Advocacy for labeling/shelving. Marketing.
Animal Charity Evaluators
DALY/WELLBY interconvertibility
Wellbeing measures/how to convert between DALY and WELLBY welfare measurements on assessing charities and interventions.
Currently ~treat standard deviation units across different mental health measures as equivalent to WELLBY-SDs. Is this justifiable?
Given this, the choice of DALY and WELLBY substantially affects some important cost-effectiveness estimates/comparisons.
In progress
WIP (see Gdoc)
Other Economics/Welfare/Growth
75%
The wellbeing cost-effectiveness of StrongMinds and Friendship Bench: Combining a systematic review and meta-analysis with charity-related data
Adjusting for Scale-Use Heterogeneity in Self-Reported Well-Being
#r474
A happy probability about happiness (and other) scales: an exploration and tentative defence of the cardinality assumption.
A Handbook for Wellbeing Policy-Making: History, Theory, Measurements, Implementation and Examples (Chapter 4)
The WELLBY: a new measure of social value and progress
Metrics of Subjective Well-Being: Limits and Improvements
An empirical comparison of well-being measures used in the UK
Wellbeing discussion paper: monetisation of life satisfaction effect sizes
Life Satisfaction, QALYs, and the Monetary Value of Health.
An empirical comparison of well-being measures used
in UK
Quality adjusted life years based on health and consumption: A summary wellbeing measure for cross‐sectoral economic evaluation
When to release the lockdown: A wellbeing framework for analysing costs and benefits
The value of health - Empirical issues when estimating the monetary value of a QALY based on well-being data
Founders Pledge
Measuring Well-being/WELLBY reliability
Is WELLBY the most appropriate (useful, reliable...) measure? What is the best (e.g. evidence-backed, generally useful) way to measure mental health and SWB improvements?
In progress
WIP (see Gdoc for updates)
[WELLBY USEFUL] Is the WELLBY a useful and reliable measure (for decisionmaking in ‘this context’, e.g., FP project, life/income tradeoffs, mental health interventions)?
Other Economics/Welfare/Growth
75%
The wellbeing cost-effectiveness of StrongMinds and Friendship Bench: Combining a systematic review and meta-analysis with charity-related data
Adjusting for Scale-Use Heterogeneity in Self-Reported Well-Being
The WELLBY: a new measure of social value and progress
The Sad Truth about Happiness Scales
test WELLBY Dup
Metrics of Subjective Well-Being: Limits and Improvements
Wellbeing discussion paper: monetisation of life satisfaction effect sizes
How Threatening Are Transformations of Happiness Scales to Subjective Wellbeing Research?
Feeling good is Feeling better
A Handbook for Wellbeing Policy-Making: History, Theory, Measurements, Implementation and Examples (Chapter 4)
An empirical comparison of well-being measures used
in UK
Founders Pledge
Cell-cultured meat cost and price
What is cell-cultured meat likely to cost, by year, as a function of the level of investments made? ~[Internal proposal]
In progress
Will most cultured meat (by volume) be produced with hydrolysates in 2036?
#r3
Predict-experts: Average production cost of cultured (chicken) per kg (WIP)
Average cost of growth factors by 2036
Cell media costs in 2036
Quantity of cell media required to produce 1kg of cultured meat in 2036
Maximum cell density achieved in 20k liter bioreactor by 2036
Is cultured meat development a good investment from an animal welfare POV?
Predict-experts: Animal welfare benefit of cultured meat vs best alternative Animal Welfare intervention
Food-grade vs pharmaceutical-grade cell media
Price of cultured meat with widespread hydrolysate use
Price of cultured meat without widespread hydrolysate use
What percent of companies will build their own bioreactors by 2036?
How many chickens will be slaughtered for meat globally in the following years?
How many metric tons of ≥51% cultured meat costing <$10/kg will be sold from 2020 to 2050?
How many metric tons of ≥51% cultured meat will be sold from 2020 to 2050?
Largest single CM facility capacity by 2030
What will the lowest retail price, in USD per kg, of any product containing 50% clean meat be, in the calendar year 2029?
How much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2030, in millions of USD?
Animal Welfare (markets, attitudes)
68%
Cultured meat: A comparison of techno-economic analyses
Forecasts estimate limited cultured meat production through 2050 (EA forum post)
Techno-economic modeling and assessment of cultivated meat: Impact of production bioreactor scale
Scale-up economics for cultured meat
How much will large-scale production of cell-cultured meat cost?
A scoping review of cultivated meat techno-economic analyses to inform future research directions for scaled-up manufacturing
Empirical economic analysis shows cost-effective continuous manufacturing of cultivated chicken using animal-free medium
Preliminary Techno-Economic Assessment of Animal Cell-Based Meat
TEA of cultivated meat. Future projections for different scenarios
Towards cost-effective and sustainable media formulations for cellular agriculture
Anticipated growth factor and recombinant protein costs and volumes necessary for cost-competitive cultivated meat
Exploring cost reduction strategies for serum free media development
A Beefy-R culture medium: Replacing albumin with rapeseed protein isolates
Simple and effective serum-free medium for sustained expansion of bovine satellite cells for cell cultured meat
Towards cost-effective and sustainable media formulations for cellular agriculture
Unlocking the potential of cultivated meat through cell line engineering
Effects of improving welfare standards on attitudes towards animal welfare/factory farming/legislation?
Does promoting welfare reforms increase the comfort with, and consumption of, animal products (complacency effect)? [And will welfare reform lead to greater or lower support for further reform?]
Does
Animal Welfare (markets, attitudes)
67%
The Effects of Exposure to Information about Animal Welfare Reforms on Animal Farming Opposition: A Randomized Experiment
Impact Of Corporate Commitments On Public Attitudes
Should they include these LT effects in their model? How large could this effect be?
Animal Charity Evaluators
In Ovo Sexing
Re: in ovo chick sexing: How can we quantify the trade-off when we advance technologies that both have first-order welfare-improving effects, and increase profits?
66%
Anon org
Bacterial lameness vaccine (chickens)
Re: Anti-lameness vaccines for chickens: How can we quantity the trade-off when we advance technologies that both have first-order welfare-improving effects, and increase profits?
First take: (to what extent) will promoting a bacterial vaccine to prevent chicken lameness reduce the cost of broiler chicken production leading to an increase in the number of farmed broiler chickens? Will this lead to a net gain or loss of animal welfare, considering the trade-off between reduced suffering of chickens and potentially increased production?
66%
Anon org
International agreements and crises
How often do countries honor their (international) agreements in the event of large catastrophes (and what determines this?)
Most feasible question (literature and data wise): “Do international ~environmental treaties have an impact on environmental outcomes, and if so to what extent [% of goal achieved or prob. of compliance]?”
Reframe: [A] How much more likely ... is it for two countries [B] to cooperate [C] in the event of a large catastrophe or crisis [D] if they’ve signed an international agreement in advance?
A. ‘More likely’ : in percentages, percentage points, or otherwise
Catastrophic & existential risks, the long-term future, forecasting
65%
FJ: Imagine country A and country B having an agreement that they would send each other food if a large catastrophe happens. However, when a large catastrophe happens it would be much easier for them to just not send the food to the other country and keep it for themselves. What are the factors that influence that countries adhere to the agreements that they made before the catastrophe happens?
FJ: Motivating examples – Australia exporting food in a Nuclear Winter etc disaster; Covid vaccine sharing
Open Philanthropy
(Long-term) effects of improving welfare standards on the consumption of animal products?
What are the (long-term) effects of improving welfare standards on the consumption of animal products?
What is the long-term impact of a typical [cage free eggs, better chicken or Euro chicken] commitment on
Animal Welfare (markets, attitudes)
65%
Should they include these LT effects in their model? How large could this effect be?
Animal Charity Evaluators
Does inequality increase civil war/unrest in the event of an environmental shock?
Does (increases in) income (or consumption or wealth) inequality make it more likely that an environmental shock will lead to a major crisis?
Does (increases in) income (or consumption or wealth) inequality make it more likely that an environmental shock will lead to a civil war or civil unrest?
Catastrophic & existential risks, the long-term future, forecasting
65%
All Crises Are Unhappy in Their Own Way: The Role of Societal Instability in Shaping the Past
Open Philanthropy
Cell-cultured meat consumer acceptance
How probable is it that cell-cultured meat will gain widespread consumer acceptance, and to what timescale? To what extent will consumers replace conventional meat with cell-cultured meat?
Cell-cultured meat consumer acceptance. What will be the demand for cell-cultured meat (by category) as a function of price and other features?
Animal Welfare (markets, attitudes)
62%
Animal Charity Evaluators
Democracy and disaster/GCR resilience
How important is democracy for resilience against global catastrophic risk?
By how much (proportional model) does a country being a democracy cause a lower (or higher) loss of life (alt: another measure of total damage) in the event of a disaster of the magnitude of a 7+ earthquake?
Hypothetical manipulation: make a country a democracy, 20 years later there is a disaster chosen from the random pool of disasters of 7+ or more. ...
“If a country were moved to have 1 SD higher level of democracy (as measured in XXX index) how many SD units lower (or higher) would be the loss of life in the event of randomly chosen disaster of the magnitude of a 7+ earthquake?”
Catastrophic & existential risks, the long-term future, forecasting
60%
Whether philanthropists should support progressive candidates/policies in a country, and maybe international redistribution and global dev.
Open Philanthropy
Government spending and authoritarianism
Do public spending cuts increase support for authoritarian policies?
What is the functional relationship between a democratic government’s level of per-capita spending over time and the extent to which it is democratic or authoritarian (choose the best ’)?
Simplified, for phrasing and prediction, something like:
If a government (is randomly assigned to) reduce(s) its spending in real terms by (choose something 1 SD) over a five-year period, by how many standard deviations will its democracy index fall (or rise), on average?
International conflict, governance, authoritarianism
60%
I think Florian/OP care both:
Open Philanthropy
(Rough) GBD and IHME modeling assumptions sensitivity
How robust are of IHME and Global Burden of Disease models to opinionated assumptions?
Discussion:
The credibility of IHME (https://www.healthdata.org/) and Global Burden of Disease models… lots of modeling decisions underly this
Health & well-being (all countries)
60%
Open Philanthropy
Does corporate AW outreach generalize to the Global South?
How generalizable is evidence on the effectiveness of corporate outreach [in the North] to the Global South?
Operationalization issues
Animal Welfare (markets, attitudes)
58%
May change their evaluation of orgs operating in those countries
DR: Inform expansion to, as well as benefit of running studies there
Wild Animal Initiative
Electronic claims management in LMICs
“How much could switching to electronic claims management could save … that could be lost to fraud and waste?”
Economic development & governance (LMICs)
55%
World Bank
Viability of Seaweed markets
Why don’t people eat more seaweed?
Work on something like
“How responsive is the production and demand for seaweed to subsidies?” (look towards the nature of the production function, inframarginal demand)
Catastrophic & existential risks, the long-term future, forecasting
50%
Seaweed is a nuclear disaster resilient food.
If we can get people to start doing it now the expertise and facilities will be there when we need them.
Open Philanthropy
ALLFED
Will the US government use subjective forecasting?
How much will the US government use subjective forecasting approaches (in the way the DoD does) in the next ~50 years?
Catastrophic & existential risks, the long-term future, forecasting
45%
Open Philanthropy
Does history transfer
How transferable are insights from history to today?
Rough attempts
Catastrophic & existential risks, the long-term future, forecasting
40%
“Is there a ‘structural break’ or a ‘break in the functional and predictive relationships with industrialization’” ?… if this were the case quantitative history would be more valuable. We can use the deep past to predict human behavior now, much larger data set.
Open Philanthropy
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