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Specific PQs & Metaculus Questions

Choose the “PQ” you’re interested in using the filter bar below to see only the relevant operationalizations and Metaculus questions.

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Also see our

Pivotal Q's: curated research list⁠

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Specific PQs and Metaculus questions

Specific PQs and Metaculus questions

Question type (see note below)

Question label short version

Full question text

Question type (see note below)

Notes short

Metaculus link

Variants to elicit

Question code

Type of metaculus question

Is cultured meat development a good investment from an animal welfare POV?

What is the expected-value (and probability distribution) of the impact on animal welfare from funding the development of cell-cultured meat? Evaluators could choose to answer this in terms of: (i) marginal (aka incremental) funding, (ii) very high levels of funding, or (iii) the impact relative to the best alternative animal welfare interventions.

CM_02

Is PBA-research a good investment from an animal welfare POV?

Do PBAs displace animal-welfare-relevant animal-based product consumption enough to make investments in reducing their cost [and increasing their quality] plausibly competitive with other animal welfare interventions?

Alt framing:

Or ‘what probability do you assign to this’?

PBA_02

What measures to collect? How should these be used?

What measures of well-being (or life satisfaction, or happiness, etc.) should charities, NGOs, and RCTs collect for impact analysis, particularly in contexts that may involve less tangible well-being outcomes (such as mental health interventions)? This could also include stated-preference and calibration surveys. How should these be used?

WELL_03

Best WELLBY/DALY conversion for FP

Which mapping between WELLBYs and DALYs should Founders Pledge use in comparisons like the ‘focal example’

here

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in order to make decisions between charities like these? I.e., what is the best* mapping for their use case?

replace DALY with QALY

DALY_02

WELLBY general use versus combining multiple measures (secondary)

Consider general contexts where interventions may have impacts on both mental health, physical health, and consumption, such as the ‘

focal example

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‘ above.

Do you agree: “In these contexts it is best to use a (potentially imperfect but single) overall WELLBY-based measure (as defined above) instead of directly measuring each dimension separately and then converting and combining these?”

Discuss: in which such contexts might it be better or worse to do this?

WELL_04

Best wellbeing measure for mental health interventions given available data

Given the available collected data from surveys and intervention trials, how should Founders’ Pledge measure the impact on wellbeing in the context of mental health interventions? E.g., should they use the WELLBY measure (as

defined above

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) or another metric? Consider reliability, insight, and practicability.

See context and definition

here

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WELL_02

Animal welfare benefit of plant-based meat vs best alternative Animal Welfare intervention

Does the animal welfare benefit of (having) donated $100,000 in 2026 to fund the cost reduction and availability of Impossible Burgers (and similar) via GFI exceeded the animal welfare benefit (according to your chosen metric) of having donated the same amount

to support The Human League’s corporate animal welfare campaigns (for chickens)

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? [State a probability on Metaculus]

PBA_03

Predict-experts: Average production cost of cultured (chicken) per kg (For Metaculus forecasters, not for the PQ evaluators)

At [resolution date ~Dec. 2026], what will be the median of the linearly aggregated beliefs among the set of Unjournal evaluators and experts over the average production cost (per edible kg) of cultured chicken meat at the end of 2051 across all large-scale plants in the world” (I.e., for

this

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direct question for 2051, using beliefs given on this platform.)

Linearly aggregated: Essentially, adding the pdfs (distributions) vertically and re-scaling these to sum to probability=1. This is not the standard Metaculus aggregation (see discussion here [link]).

Evaluators and experts: Any of the following people who respond to this question –

CM_03

How many chickens will be slaughtered for meat globally in the following years?

Years: 2025, 2032, 2052, 2122

This question will resolve as the total number of chickens slaughtered for meat in the respective year for the whole world according to

Our World in Data

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. For example, this figure was 70.77 billion in the year 2020.

CM_04

How many metric tons of ≥51% cultured meat costing <$10/kg will be sold from 2020 to 2050?

Example: the year 2025 will resolve as the average of the years 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025.

Resolution will be via industry statistics from credible sources akin to the FAO & USDA (such as independent credible outside analysts, governments, inter-governmental agencies, the FAO itself, & The Good Food Institute's market research reports.) Evidence of the cultured meat containing a product's listing price and composition should come from credible media reports, online supermarket listings, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.

CM_05

How many metric tons of ≥51% cultured meat will be sold from 2020 to 2050?

Example: the year 2025 will resolve as the average of the years 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025.

Resolution will be from industry statistics from credible sources akin to the FAO & USDA (such as independent credible outside analysts, governments, inter-governmental agencies, the FAO itself, & The Good Food Institute's market research reports.)

CM_06

Largest single CM facility capacity by 2030

What will be the largest cultivated meat production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single facility by January 1, 2030?

This question will resolves as the highest reported production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single physical facility that produces cultivated meat products by January 1, 2030.

The following types of evidence would decide the question:

CM_07

What will the lowest retail price, in USD per kg, of any product containing 50% clean meat be, in the calendar year 2029?

Resolution

This question resolves as the lowest reported price, in 2019 USD per kg, of any product listed in a retail supermarkets that contains at least 50% clean meat by weight. Qualifying retail supermarkets are those based in either the U.S. or based in the European Union as of August, 2019, and Switzerland.

CM_08

How much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2030, in millions of USD?

Resolution:

This question resolves as a credible estimate of the revenue by companies generated from the sale of clean-meat containing products for human consumption in the U.S., in the [U.S. fiscal year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiscal_year#United_States) 2030. The figure shall be given in millions of USD, in 2019 prices. Qualifying products need to contain at least 1% of clean meat by weight. Clean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body.

CM_09

Predict-experts: Focal question (For Metaculus forecasters, not for the PQ evaluators)

At [resolution date ~Dec. 2026], what will be the median probability of the linearly aggregated beliefs among the set of Unjournal evaluators and experts over:

“If the price of the highest-quality hamburger-imitating plant products fell by 10% everywhere, how many more/fewer chickens would be consumed globally in the year 2027 (as a +/- percent)?” — e.g., how will

THIS question

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resolve?

PBA_04

Predict-experts: Animal welfare benefit of plant-based meat vs best alternative Animal Welfare intervention

At [resolution date ~Dec. 2026], what will be the median probability of the linearly aggregated beliefs among the set of Unjournal evaluators and experts over:

whether the animal welfare benefit of (having) donated $100,000 in 2026 to fund the cost reduction and availability of Impossible Burgers (and similar) via GFI

will have exceeded the animal welfare benefit (according to experts’ chosen metric) of having donated the same amount

to support The Human League’s corporate animal welfare campaigns (for chickens)

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PBA_05

Focal: If the price of the highest-quality hamburger-imitating plant products fell by 10% everywhere, how many more/fewer chickens would be consumed globally in the year 2030 (as a +/- percent)?

If…

the price of “IB+” [variant: PBA] were to fall by 10% (relative to its counterfactual price)

as a result of supply-side factors

Evaluation of this operationalization

We can ask evaluators and others to state their beliefs on these, informed by the research (whether it reports elasticities or something else)

Reasonably understandable to non-economists

[PRICE FALL%] = 5%, 20%, and to price parity with avg. ground beef [TARGET PRODUCTS] = b. beef, c. pork, d. shrimp/prawns, and e. fish. [PBA] = The highest-quality plant-based chicken nuggets’

PBA_01

[Focal question] Best measure for comparing multi-outcome interventions

What combination of (a) subjective wellbeing survey data (e.g., life-satisfaction, happiness, depression (b) income and health-outcome data, (c) metrics based on this data (e.g., linear or logarithmic WELLBYs, standard deviations, scale-use adjustments), and (d) possible conversions between different measures would be “best*” for making funding choices between interventions which may impact mental health, physical health, and/or consumption, as in the

focal example

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above?

(Note: we ask you about sub-elements of this question below. See definitions of ‘best’ in the page notes.)

WELL_01

[Focal question] Best simple WELLBY/DALY conversion or mapping

If the impact of one program is measured in WELLBYs (as defined above) and another program impact is measured in DALYs, and we have a reported effect size and standard deviation for each, what is the best* numerical conversion or mapping between them?

replace DALY with QALY

DALY_01

Focal: Average production cost of cultured (chicken) per kg

“What will be the average production cost (per edible kg) of cultured chicken meat in the given years, expressed in value units, across all large-scale plants in the world” ...

Average Production Cost (AC): (Annualized capital charge + all operating costs) ÷ annual kilograms of edible cultured-meat output

Capital charge: From total capital investment (TCI) amortized over the plant life from a new firm that would enter this market, adjusted for market risk

Marginal Cost at Scale. While AC incorporates the capital expenditure involved in getting facilities up and running, marginal cost solely captures the cost of producing each additional kilogram of product. While these marginal costs are unlikely to reflect the sustainable market price of CM, they are important for modeling the sensitivity to market power and the nature of competition, and to considering the marginal impact of subsidies.

Average Cost Function. Careful forecasters are likely to model the relationship between costs plant capacity, and global production (e.g., a power law scaling). Explicitly stating this would help us consider how robust the AC forecast is to alternative assumptions, and to extrapolate to different scenarios.

CM_01

Will most cultured meat (by volume) be produced with hydrolysates in 2036?

CM_12

Average cost of growth factors by 2036

What will be the average cost of recombinant growth factors per gram (of input) in commercial cultured meat production in 2036?

CM_13

Cell media costs in 2036

What will be the cost of cell media per kg of cultured meat in 2036?

CM_14

Quantity of cell media required to produce 1kg of cultured meat in 2036

What will be the average quantity of cell media, in liters, necessary to produce 1kg of cultured meat in 2036?

CM_15

Maximum cell density achieved in 20k liter bioreactor by 2036

What will be the highest cell density of cultivated meat produced in a 20,000 liter bioreactor by 2036?

CM_16

Food-grade vs pharmaceutical-grade cell media

By 2036, what percent of commercial cultured meat will be produced using food-grade cell media (as opposed to pharmaceutical-grade)?

Although some past sources seem to suggest that pharmaceutical-grade cell media would be necessary for safe cultured meat production, food-grade media and bioreactors seem to be the current standard. We are currently investigating whether questions of pharmaceutical-grade vs food-grade resources are still relevant.

CM_17

Price of cultured meat with widespread hydrolysate use

Conditional on “most CM is produced with plant hydrolysates in 2036?”, what will be the average price of 1 kg of cultured meat?

CM_18

Price of cultured meat without widespread hydrolysate use

Conditional on “most CM is NOT produced with plant hydrolysates in 2036?”, what will be the average price of 1 kg of cultured meat?

CM_19

What share of cultured meat companies (those with capex over $10 million) will design and build their own bioreactors by 2036?

This question is based on some reports that companies can design and build their own bioreactors for a much lower cost than purchasing off-the-shelf pharmaceutical bioreactors.

CM_20

(Meta) Reliability of estimating cross-price elasticities/substitution effects

Can cross-price elasticities and substitution effects be reliably and precisely estimated in a context like this?

PBA_06

(Meta) Type and cost of experiment to yield useful cost-price elasticity estimates

What sort of (~supermarket) experimental trial would be needed to yield useful estimates of cross-price elasticities for key PBA/~meat pairings, and how much would an informative trial cost?

PBA_07

(Model for goals) Cross-price elasticity threshold that justifies funding PBAs — (very optional, conditional on the Meta question about estimation)

How high a cross-price elasticity (or rate of substitution) between key products (say, plant-based beef & chicken breasts) would be necessary to justify funding R&D for PBAs?

PBA_08

WELLBY in comparison — what is lost and where?

(Discuss) How reliable is the WELLBY measure of well-being/mental health (as

defined above

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) relative to other available measures in the ‘wellbeing space’ (including other transformations of the 0-10 life satisfaction scale)? “How much insight is lost by using WELLBY and when will it steer us wrong?”

WELL_07

Best metric based on Cantril ladder questions

If we needed to rely on the Cantril ladder measure (as typically collected for WELLBY estimation) how would we best convert it into a welfare metric to use for decisionmaking (comparing interventions, etc.)?

WELL_09

Loss from SD-SD conversion

What is the loss from the “one SD change in WELLBY is equivalent to one SD change in DALY” approach that FP is currently taking relevant to the best feasible approach? Where will their approach be particularly incorrect?

replace DALY with QALY

DALY_05

Life satisfaction vs. happiness questions

In the contexts discussed above, would it be better to base the metric on a self-reported life satisfaction measure or instantaneous experience measures?

WELL_08

Extension: How much better is the “best option using available data” relative to WELLBY?

Consider your answer to the above question (WELL_01). (If you stated that using the linear WELLBY measure is optimal, skip this question).

Consider the welfare-improvement as a result of choosing to allocate $100,000 among a large set of charities/interventions given the information provided by the “best measure” you propose above. How much (more) would it cost to achieve the same welfare-improvement outcome using the linear WELLBY measure as

defined above

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? State this as a proportion. E.g., 1.1 means it would cost 10% more, 1.5 means 50% more, 3 means 3 times as much, etc.

WELL_01a

Extension: How much better is the “best option using data that could be collected” relative to WELLBY?

Consider your answer to the above question (WELL_03). (If you stated that using the linear WELLBY measure is optimal, skip this question).

Consider the welfare-improvement as a result of choosing to allocate $100,000 among a large set of charities/interventions given the information provided by the “best measure” you propose above, allowing new data collection. How much (more) would it cost to achieve the same welfare-improvement outcome using the linear WELLBY measure as

defined above

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? State this as a proportion. E.g., 1.1 means it would cost 10% more, 1.5 means 50% more, 3 means 3 times as much, etc.

You may want to factor in the costs of this additional data collection.

WELL_03a

No results from filter

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The table below explains each of these ‘question type’ categories.

Question type

Description of question type

PQ for evaluation

The focal pivotal question that PQ-evaluators should prioritize.

Goal-oriented

These address the broader or more actionable questionof direct interest to partner organizations. Generally less tractable for direct evaluation, but worth keeping in mind.

Metaculus

Posted/to be posted in our

Metaculus community

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(a prediction platform) and potentially in Metaculus main stream. PQ- evaluators and our experts & stakeholder team should state their beliefs on the platform and share their ID with us. Other question types may also be given this tag if they are posted on Metaculus.

Candidate PQ

Not official yet. ~For internal discussion.

Subquestion or building-block

Secondary questions PQ-evaluators should address, if they have capacity. Some of these may be ‘key factors’ informing the “PQ for evaluation”. Others may be adjacent PQs that are also high-value (but prioritized slightly below the ‘PQ for evaluation’).

There are no rows in this table

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Goal-focused questions: These explain the actionable goal of the question writ large. Not easy to evaluate, but worth bearing in mind.

Variants to elicit

Ideally, weigh in on all of these, if you have time.

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