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Confidence Calculator
Instructions
As you take a drill or practice test, record your confidence in each answer you select, expressed as a number between 1 and 10 to represent the probability you think you got that question correct.
The lowest probability should be 2, because there is a 2/10 chance that you get the correct answer just by guessing. You should record a 3 if you eliminated two possible answers, but guess between the remaining three, because then there is a 1/3, or about 3/10 chance you are correct. Record a 5 if you guess between two remaining answers, because that gives you a 1/2, or 5/10 chance of being right. Select between a 6 and 10 for any confidence above that. For example, record an 8 if you think that there is about an 80%, or 8/10 chance of being correct. Round to the nearest whole number.
Once you have recorded your confidence under timed conditions, complete a blind review of the drill or section, then check your answers. In the “Input” table, enter your confidence on each question, and check a box if you got that question correct.
Interpretation and Use
Your Average Confidence Error is the difference between your average accuracy (how many questions you got right divided by the number of questions) and your average confidence (the percentage of questions you expected to get right in total, based on the confidence values you entered for each individual question. This tells you, on average, whether you are over or under confident, and by how much.
The Chart shows you how your confidence error breaks down by confidence level. If, for example, the bar at “6” is -25%, that means you are 25% under confident in for questions you rate at that level. In other words, when you record a 6, you think that you are 25% less accurate than you actually are. If, by contrast, the bar at “6” is 25%, that would mean that you tend to think you are 25% more accurate than you actually are.
The Breakdown shows you the same information as the chart using a table.
If you are over confident, that means you are probably moving too quickly and missing things. You need to slow down and focus on the details, trading off your speed in favor of greater accuracy.
If you are under confident, that mean you are probably second-guessing yourself when you don’t need to be. You should be willing to move on in moments where you are going back and forth between answer choices, as you are more accurate than you think you are. Be willing to trade off some accuracy in favor of speed.
Input
Confidence (x/10)
Correct?
Confidence (x/10)
Correct?
There are no rows in this table
Average Accuracy:
0%
Average Confidence:
0%
Average Confidence Error:
0%
over confident
Chart
Breakdown
Confidence
Accuracy
Error
Confidence
Accuracy
Error
2
20%
0%
3
30%
0%
4
40%
0%
5
50%
0%
6
60%
0%
7
70%
0%
8
80%
0%
9
90%
0%
10
100%
0%
There are no rows in this table
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