launched with sports markets (football, esports) on Gnosis Chain
Currently offers pre-match markets only, for events scheduled a few days into the future.
Market mechanism: constant product AMM, seen in Gnosis conditional tokens framework & Uniswap, Balancer etc
How on-chain prediction markets can win
In order to scale to the user activity & volume of leading centralised markets, on-chain prediction markets need a stronger product offering.
All prediction platforms so far only offer pre-match markets for sports.
According to bet365’s financials, in-play markets represent 68% of sports market revenue.
This is critical to building a sustainably growing platform, since one profitable market can bootstrap liquidity for introducing newer markets.
Prediction platforms should offer more markets besides the fixed odds market primitive.
This is important for active user engagement, and can be substantiated in bet365 stats of significant user activity shift from sports prediction to gaming (slot machines, roulette etc.) over 2021.
Prediction market positions are a unique asset class in DeFi, that offer payouts unaffected by prevailing market volatility. In order to capitalize on this further, platforms should allow for composition with general DeFi primitives:
Lending & Leverage: Tokenized positions can enable early liquidity by integration with lending platforms for e.g. long running 1yr markets. And this loan, in turn can be used to lever up on the initial position.
Hedging: Users with off-market positions in similar assets can hedge their exposure by coordinated strategies deployed across different prediction markets.
Integration with social networks can introduce new user flows, e.g. group positions, fantasy sports, social asset management etc.
OTT media services & analysis firms can provide live streaming & statistics to support user acquisition
Relative: Product Thesis
Our goal at Relative is to reimagine the on-chain prediction markets space, build robust composable primitives and work towards establishing a metaverse casino.
Some core features of our platform are:
Extensible asset & market model - e.g. perps for NFTs, off-chain assets like watches
Multiple market mechanisms - After building a peer to peer market MVP, our roadmap involves:
Live fixed odds market for the FIFA World Cup
Gamified harberger tax market for price chart speculation
A free to play, cross-market liquidity pool built on top of yield protocols
Tokenonomics to bootstrap liquidity, share revenue and support in-platform gamification.