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Confrontation analysis
Prospect theory qualitative analysis
Qualitative Prospect Analysis
Actor
(Frame)
Description
Iniciative
Potential benefits
Description of potential benefits
Potential cost
Descripcion costos
Balance Perdida/Ganancia del Resultado respecto a punto de referencia
Rechazo a la perdida
Probabilidad de exito
Assigning weight to prob of success
Risk aversion
Does not priotitize Maximizing Utils
Risk Propensity
Possible decision
1
Putin
He is in a loss situation
Internal and international image of a not so powerful Russia
Accentuate and expand the war
Very High Benefits
Exit to the sea, Consolidation Russia and satellites
Very High Costs
Ukraine resists paying war costs
Below Reference Point
Very high
Medium Prob. Success
Increase weight
Risk Rejection Decreases Significantly
Propension al Riesgo muy alta
Decides to scalate the war
2
Putin
He is in a losing situation with Falcons with power
The more aggressive groups would see any concession as a weakness
Limit the already conquered zone as his objective
Very Low Benefits
Maintains internal control and extensive territory
High Costs
Continued spiral of war costs
Above Reference Point (Gain)
Low Prob. Success
Decrease weight
Risk Rejection Decreases Significantly
Propension al Riesgo muy alta
Decides uses of nuclear nukes
3
Zelensky
He is in a winning situation
Reconquering lost territory
Does not negotiate if they do not return territory
Very High Benefits
Strengthens his position and his country
High Costs
Loss of lives. infrastructure destruction
Slightly Above Reference Point
Medium Prob. Success
Decrease weight
Risk Rejection Neutral
Very High Risk Propensity
Counteroffensive. Does not negotiategiving ip territories
4
Zelensky
He is in a winning situation
excellent international image
Declares not giving up territory Attacks Russian occupied territory
Very High Benefits
Credibility continues to grow
High Costs
The war is accentuated
Slightly Above Reference Point
Very High Prob. Success
Decrease weight
Risk Rejection Decreases
Very High Risk Propensity
Could negotiate with minimun conditions
5
Biden
He is in a loss situation
Strong criticism of his economic management
Increase economic and military support
High Benefits
Ukraine continues resistance. war drags on
High Costs
Ukraine continue demanding resources. Western unit in danger
Slightly Above Reference Point
Risk Rejection Neutral
Moderate Risk Propensity
Keeps poliicy of military support
6
Biden
He is in a winning situation
Strengthened international image
Direct and strong threat to Putin
Very High Benefits
Keeps Putin contain
Very High Costs
May start spiral of war
Slightly Above Reference Point
Risk Rejection Increases
Moderate Risk Propensity
Despliega y hace visible nuevo poderío militar que facilitaría a Ucrania. Designa Zar de exploración conversaciones
7
8
There are no rows in this table
Excel_Spreadsheet_for_Cumulative_Prospec (9).xls
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