Quantitative Analysis

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Expected Utility Method

Actitud frente al riesgo es considerada neutra =1

Ronda 0 Tabla inicial

Presionar para enviar datos
Tabla cero
1
Ronda
Turno
Actor Prop
Influence
Position
Salience
SxI
SxIxP
Welgthed Average
Difference Position Weighted ave
Expected Utility of Proposer
Expected Utility of Receiver
Factor of Influence
Pro Success Proposer over Rec
Probability of change
Probability of Status Quo
Probability Receiver will win over Prop
Utility of Proposer if Situation worst
Utility of Proposer if Status Quo
Utility Proposer if fails
Utility Proposer if Situation is better
Utility Proposer if wins over Rec
Utility Receiver if fails over Proposer
Utility Receiver if Situation is better
Utility Receiver if Situation is worst
Utility Receiver if Status Quo
Utility Receiver if wins over Proposer
Difference EU proposer to receiver
New influence of Receiver
New position of Receiver
New Salience of Receiver
Envia tabla posicionamiento 1
Column 44
Column 39
Column 46
Column 47
Column 42
Column 48
1
Ronda 0
1
Russia
10
30
20
200
6000
41
-11
-18019
-123561
110%
0.21
0.58
0.18
0.86
5599
6353
3186
564
5985
1149
3823
1142
9817
-19244
Envia a tabla posicionamiento 1
11
30
20
2
Ronda 0
2
Ukraine
60
40
80
4800
192000
41
-1
-11327
-294550
150%
0.59
0.33
0.79
0.64
5426
3105
144
5301
2618
5313
7919
5185
5522
113285
Envia a tabla posicionamiento 1
69
40
80
3
Ronda 0
3
OTAN
80
10
90
7200
72000
41
-31
-2051
-481847
0
0.32
0.74
0.16
3034
755
5687
7363
8598
8705
2660
6705
4713
337906
Envia a tabla posicionamiento 1
80
10
90
4
Ronda 0
4
China
50
60
50
2500
150000
41
19
-159394
-360278
0.79
0.04
0.23
0.76
2625
2009
4016
7979
8393
3746
3775
7508
3582
15740
Envia a tabla posicionamiento 1
50
60
50
5
Ronda 0
5
West Media
60
80
30
1800
144000
41
39
-4737
-49736
0.41
0.09
0.47
0.96
9150
4637
105
9935
1498
2263
2884
9293
9447
-64892
Envia a tabla posicionamiento 1
60
80
30
6
Ronda 0
6
M Pro Rusia
40
90
70
2800
252000
41
49
71
71
Envia a tabla posicionamiento 1
40
90
70
7
Ronda 0
7
ONU
30
50
60
1800
90000
41
9
61
61
Envia a tabla posicionamiento 1
30
50
60
8
Ronda 0
8
India
20
10
80
1600
16000
41
-31
81
81
Envia a tabla posicionamiento 1
20
10
80
9
USA
41
-41
1
1
Envia a tabla posicionamiento 1
10
ComEuro
41
-41
1
1
Envia a tabla posicionamiento 1
There are no rows in this table
8
Count
10
Count
370
Sum



View of Tabla cero
1

Issue en agenda 3
0
Issue
1
Confrontation Russia Ukraine
2
3
There are no rows in this table

View of Global table
2
Ronda
Turno
Actor Proponente
Propuesta
Influence
Position
Salience
SxI
SxIxP
Welgthed Average
Difference Position Weighted ave
Pro Success Proposer over Rec
Utility Proposer if wins over Rec
Probability Receiver will win over Prop
Utility Proposer if fails
Utility Receiver if wins over Proposer
Utility Receiver if fails over Proposer
Probability of Status Quo
Utility Receiver if Status Quo
Utility of Proposer if Status Quo
Utility of Proposer if Situation worst
Probability of change
Utility Proposer if Situation is better
Utility Receiver if Situation is better
Utility Receiver if Situation is worst
Expected Utility of Proposer
Expected Utility of Receiver
Difference EU proposer to receiver
Receiver evaluates
Alliances
Factor of Influence
New Influence
New position of Proposer
New Salience of Proposer
New influence of Receiver
New position of Receiver
New Salience of Receiver
1
Ronda 1
Russia
40
10
90
3600
36000
59
-49

Open
91
91
Russia
0.0
0
2
Ronda 1
Ukraine
30
90
90
2700
243000
59
31

Open
91
91
Ukraine
0.0
0
3
Ronda 1
OTAN
20
80
80
1600
128000
59
21

Open
81
81
OTAN
0.0
0
4
Ronda 1
China
15
30
50
750
22500
59
-29

Open
51
51
China
0.0
0
5
Ronda 1
West Media
5
70
70
350
24500
59
11

Open
71
71
West Media
0.0
0
6
Ronda 1
M Pro Rusia
10
10
80
800
8000
59
-49

Open
81
81
M Pro Rusia
0.0
0
7
Ronda 1
ONU
15
50
70
1050
52500
59
-9

Open
71
71
ONU
0.0
0
8
Ronda 1
India
10
60
60
600
36000
59
1

Open
61
61
India
0.0
0
9
Ronda 1
USA
50
80
90
4500
360000
59
21

Open
91
91
USA
0.0
0
10
Ronda 1
ComEuro
30
80
90
2700
216000
59
21

Open
91
91
ComEuro
0.0
0
11
Ronda 2
Russia
40
10
90
3600
36000
59
-49

Open
91
91
Russia
0.0
0
12
Ronda 2
Ukraine
30
88
90
2700
236979
59
29

Open
91
91
Ukraine
0.0
0
13
Ronda 2
OTAN
20
49
80
1600
77840
59
-11

Open
81
81
OTAN
0.0
0
14
Ronda 2
China
15
49
50
750
36488
59
-11

Open
51
51
China
0.0
0
15
Ronda 2
West Media
5
71
70
350
24763
59
12

Open
71
71
West Media
0.0
0
16
Ronda 2
M Pro Rusia
10
70
80
800
55992
59
11

Open
81
81
M Pro Rusia
0.0
0
17
Ronda 2
ONU
15
48
70
1050
50169
59
-11

Open
71
71
ONU
0.0
0
18
Ronda 2
India
10
49
60
600
29190
59
-11

Open
61
61
India
0.0
0
19
Ronda 2
USA
50
77
90
4500
346635
59
18

Open
91
91
USA
0.0
0
20
Ronda 2
ComEuro
30
80
90
2700
216000
59
21

Open
91
91
ComEuro
0.0
0
21
Ronda 3
Russia
40
10
90
3600
36000
59
-49

Open
91
91
Russia
0.0
0
22
Ronda 3
Ukraine
30
88
90
2700
236979
59
29

Open
91
91
Ukraine
0.0
0
23
Ronda 3
OTAN
20
49
80
1600
77840
59
-11

Open
81
81
OTAN
0.0
0
24
Ronda 3
China
15
49
50
750
36488
59
-11

Open
51
51
China
0.0
0
25
Ronda 3
West Media
5
49
70
350
17052
59
-10

Open
71
71
West Media
0.0
0
26
Ronda 3
M Pro Rusia
10
70
80
800
55992
59
11

Open
81
81
M Pro Rusia
0.0
0
27
Ronda 3
ONU
15
48
70
1050
50169
59
-11

Open
71
71
ONU
0.0
0
28
Ronda 3
India
10
77
60
600
46194
59
18

Open
61
61
India
0.0
0
29
Ronda 3
USA
50
77
90
4500
346455
59
18

Open
91
91
USA
0.0
0
30
Ronda 3
ComEuro
30
70
90
2700
188973
59
11

Open
91
91
ComEuro
0.0
0
31
Ronda 4
Russia
40
10
90
3600
36000
59
-49

Open
91
91
Russia
0.0
0
32
Ronda 4
Ukraine
30
88
90
2700
236979
59
29

Open
91
91
Ukraine
0.0
0
33
Ronda 4
OTAN
20
49
80
1600
77840
59
-11