shows/predicts what & when the next OTF benchmark will be, based on announcements as well as historic data.
You can also scroll down to Historic Benchmark Dates, which will give you the dates of all historic OTF benchmark/signature workouts.
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Upcoming Benchmark Projection
Next benchmark is going to be 1-mile Run 🏃 , on 5/8/2024.
Type
Projection 🤘
Go to Planner
Days SINCE last benchmark
Historic Minimum
Historic Average
i
Coming soon?
# Data Pts
Type
Projection 🤘
Go to Planner
Days SINCE last benchmark
Historic Minimum
Historic Average
i
Coming soon?
# Data Pts
1
1-mile Run 🏃
May 8
Go
39 days
55 days
112 days
20
2
Inferno 🔥
May 14
Go
100 days
86 days
121 days
10
3
Mayhem 🤯
May 18
Go
342 days
363 days
364 days
3
4
500m Row 🚣♀️
Jun 1
Go
85 days
59 days
111 days
20
5
Catch Me If You Can 👮♀️
Jul 6
Go
80 days
102 days
151 days
12
6
12-minute Run 🏃
Jul 24
Go
50 days
73 days
139 days
16
7
200m Row 🚣♀️
Aug 7
Go
45 days
75 days
148 days
15
8
2000m Row 🚣♀️
Aug 16
Go
22 days
68 days
134 days
17
9
Everest 🏔
Sep 14
Go
42 days
80 days
183 days
12
10
Infinity ∞
Oct 12
Go
18 days
175 days
187 days
8
11
Hell Week 👻
Oct 23
Go
185 days
365 days
365 days
4
12
12 Days of Fitness 🎄
Nov 30
Go
147 days
365 days
365 days
5
13
Dri-Tri 🏃 🚣♀️ 🏋️
Dec 3
Go
6 days
175 days
227 days
10
There are no rows in this table
“Prediction” Methodology 🧠
Historic Analysis
For each benchmark, computes the # of days since the previous benchmark of the same type.
For each benchmark type, computes the historic minimum, average, median & maximum, grouped by benchmark of the same type.
When computing historic averages, the min & max values are considered outliers and have been dropped from the calculation to get a more representative average.
Prediction
Using today’s date, compute the # of days since the last benchmark of the same type.
Coming Soon? 🔥
🔥🔥🔥 — If the benchmark has been officially announced, or if the # of days is greater than historic 95th-percentile.
🔥🔥 — If the # of days is greater than historic average.
🔥 — If the # of days is greater than historic 5th-percentile
Projection 🤘
Either using the benchmark date reported by r/orangetheory’s monthly post, or taking the last benchmark date of the same type, and add the average of the historic average & median to project the date.
If the projection is within this month, but it hasn’t been announced yet, projection will be pushed to the beginning of next month.
Confidence Level
With the exception of benchmark officially announced by OTF, due to the sparsity of benchmarks, we have yet to have sufficient data points to support any of the prediction. 😉
On a serious note, while the prediction might not be perfect, the data collected under the Benchmark Date 💿 section below can give you an idea on the # of days between each benchmark. ✅