How the World Will Change
How will the world change after COVID-19?
What will the world look like post-COVID-19? Who will be the winners and losers? Which sectors will see the most change?
Overview
I am gathering smart investors, operators and others to brainstorm ideas of how the world will change post-COVID-19.
COVID-19 will accelerate some changes that were already happening, and also change the world in completely new ways.
These ideas are focused not on the next 12-24 months of the crisis but on how will things change in 3-5 years and longer.
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Category
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Winners
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Vote
1
Remote work / work from home / telecommuting will accelerate
Work
Transportation
Energy
Consumer
Education
Commercial Legacy Energy
People (and more importantly management) are more comfortable working remotely. I do not think full remote work will be the norm, but will be much more common to work several days a week from home or come to the office only to collaborate.
Video, cloud, etc.
Suburbs
Companies selling home office supplies (furniture, decorations, supplies, equipment)
Commercial office and related services. Cities? Oil - reduced demand.
Companies specializing in office wear and accessories.
More people living in suburbs? Bigger home/apt sizes for home office?
β
π
38
2
Higher education transformation - more remote learning, lower ranked colleges will suffer. More local.
Education
Financial
Health
Higher
Students will reconsider taking on tons of debt for a middle or bottom tier university.
Top universities will be ok as credentialing factories and will broadcast online to others to earn certificates.
Fewer foreign students paying full price to subsidize domestic students.
Online education, vocational training like Lambda for coding.
Kids staying local for college.
Low ranked colleges will go out of business
β
π
22
3
Business travel will be reduced permanently. Easier to video call and don't have to fly.
Work
Travel/Leisure
Energy
Family
β
Companies can save time and money with less travel. Won't come back like it was. In person will still be important, but maintaining relationships will be done over video.
Tech, video
Airlines, hotels, car rental, oil
β
β
π
20
4
Increasing inequality
Politics/Govt
Social
Financial
Education
K-12
Those on the margins hit hardest. Poorer people also likely can't work from home.
Will also happen in education with wealthy able to hire teachers/tutors to augment video learning.
Democrats? Socialists? Welfare proponents? - JSN
Poorer people, marginalized groups, racial/ethnic minorities
Does this lead to higher taxation? Bigger govt? Direct transfers, bigger social safety net, universal healthcare?
β
π
17
5
China - more adversarial relationship
Globalization
Politics/Govt
Trade
Realization that China is not a trustworthy global player. Pullback globally. Wages have already gone up, but sunk costs in factories meant companies couldnt leave. Now will gradually pull back.
Hong Kong will be brought much closer. Maybe Taiwan eventually?
Taiwan, Korea, Vietnam, other Asian allies. Mexico? Domestic manufacturing especially in key industries like semiconductors, etc.
Both economies. War will be financial and informational.
I believe we will see a renewed manufacturing push on all things essential to our country. Especially medical and companies like Apple manufacturing a larger number of their products locally.
β
π
17
6
Workforce automation will accelerate
Financial
Work
Globalization
β
It is not just about cost benefit now, employees are a liability if they have to work in the office. Back office and some white collar will be automated at faster rate.
Tech companies, automation software (RPA, etc.)
Low code and no code tools like Coda, Airtable, Zapier, etc
Employees - here and offshore (BPO)
β
β
π
14
7
Big companies will prosper - flight to quality and size
Work
Financial
Globalization
β
More able to withstand shocks and navigate health issues, government, etc. Like seeing flight to quality for big banks that won't go under. And big banks able to navigate govt funding programs.
Big business. Banks, etc.
Small businesses
Big boxes need to consolidate and have one goal; service against Amazaon and Walmart otherwise pricing will rise for most products.
β
π
10
8
Outdoors will grow - hiking, camping, etc.
Travel/Leisure
Consumer
β
More hiking, fishing, hunting, travel to state and national parks. Activities where you are not around a lot of people and cheaper.
Outdoor clothing companies, RVs?
Hipcamp, Tentrr, Outdorsey, Outdoor World, Yeti coolers
β
What will the conservation impact be with more people on the trails/encountering nature?
@Proximity to home will matter a lot more
π
10
9
Mental health problems will grow
Health
Mental Health Wellness
Increasing isolation, economic stress, etc. will lead to more mental health issues. And people are more willing to talk about it and seek help today.
Mental health providers, pharma, mental health apps like Talkspace
β
β
π
10
10
Offline to online - Malls are dead
Real Estate
Consumer
Retail
Will accelerate
CAC inflation with faster shift online. GOOG, FB, etc.
β
β
β
π
8
11
Supply chains will be simplified - more domestic
Financial
Globalization
Trade
Companies will want more control over supply chains to avoid disruptionγΌa push for vertical integration. And some industries will be deemed in the national interest.
less just in time, better knowledge of tier 2 and 3 suppliers, more in house, more domestic manufacturing.
Near-shoring - will bring back some manufacturing from China to US and more likely Mexico.
Mexico.
US manufacturing.
Robotics.
3D printing.
Automation.
Blockchain to track supply chain
Rare earth metals outside China
China
Shipping
Lower corporate profits, higher cost to consumer
Lower US consumer purchasing power
Illegal immigration will be lower. Lower near-term work in US. LT more work in Mexico.
β
π
8
12
Digital everything
Financial
Health
Education
Consumer
Entertainment
Social
Work
β
Accelerate current digital trends like online shopping.
New things will go digital like church.
Older generations accelerate shift online.
Should think about this for every industry.
Internet infrastructure
CAC inflation with faster shift online. GOOG, FB, etc.
Offline
β
β
π
8
13
Rise of E-Sports / video games
Entertainment
Globalization
Consumer
β
E-Sports has been a rising trend for some time now. The digital everything economy, lack of live sports and gradual acceptance of gambling all further its acceleration
Gamers; Gaming Companies (HUYA, DOYU, GAN, DKNG); Streaming companies (NFLX, FUBO, GAIA)
β
β
β
π
7
14
Move to Suburbs and Regional Cities
Real Estate
Family
Housing
People getting away from urban areas, regional cities and suburbs less crowded and more affordable, more work from home makes commuting more manageable. Californians moving to Idaho, etc.
And budgets in NY, NYC and CA will buckle which could make services worse.
Suburbs, regional cities (e.g. Raleigh, Nashville, etc.)
Cities
β
Remote work / work from home / telecommuting will accelerate
π
7
15
Services at home vs. outside the home
Consumer
Entertainment
Travel/Leisure
β
Watch movies at home vs. theater, etc.
Service providers coming to your house like haircut, etc.
Telemedicine, working out, etc. can be done over video more.
Streaming services, video games, on demand services, Peloton and similar services, marijuana
Retail, movie theaters, malls, brands like supercuts where individuals will work for themselves and come to your house
β
β
π
6
16
Public transportation will be used less
Transportation
β
Public transportation (subways, buses, planes) will be used less. More walking including living nearby, more Uber.
Self-driving cars
Uber, walkable/cities, suburbs, work from home, business travel, video
Public transportation, urban cities, commuting on public transportation, Amtrak
β
β
π
6
17
Less eating out, more cooking at home
Health
Real Estate
Consumer
Entertainment
Family
Social
Education
Wellness Retail In Person Interactions/Gatherings
People more reluctant to go to restaurants for a time. Post COVID? If safe, then eating out could rebound like it was before even if many of the pre-COVID restaurants go out of business. Will also be structurally more expensive.
Grocery. Especially high end like Whole Foods with wealthier people now eating at home more.
Meal delivery (APRN, FOOD, DHERO, HFG, GRUB) and remote kitchens.
Restaurants, retail real estate
Bad for seafood and specialty foods that are harder to keep and fix at home
π
5
18
Cruise ships are dead
Travel/Leisure
Consumer
β
Many fewer people will want to take cruises given proximity and trouble during the crisis.
Other travel destinations on a relative basis
Cruise lines
7% CAGR for 20 years, people are infatuated with cruises and tiny % get sick. Disagree cruise lines die. They should go more digital on board.
π
5
19
Religious revival?
Social
Religion
People turn to religion in times of crisis and uncertainty.
β
β
β
β
π
5
20
Do consumers shift back to buying "stuff" over "experiences"?
Consumer
Travel/Leisure
β
e.g. home goods since at home more vs. travel. Clothing probably not if going out less.
Home goods and electronics, second hand clothing websites like RealReal
Travel, luxury clothing,
β
β
π
5
21
Distrust of experts and govts - more crowd sourcing knowledge
Politics/Govt
Social
β
WHO, CDC, etc got things horribly wrong. Central decision making leads to big single points of failure.
Individuals who can use twitter, substack, etc. to get their message out.
Individual experts and heterodox thinkers
β
Information networks (FB, Twitter) will have increasing pressure to ensure verify information.
β
π
5
22
Government will only get bigger
Politics/Govt
Consumer
β
Will be like the New Deal - hard to roll back government that grows during crisis and people will demand it.
Government services providers
Higher taxes
Likely higher taxes. Eventually has to lead to inflation right?
β
π
4
23
Casual clothing acceleration
Consumer
β
Acceleration of the trend to casual clothing vs. formal and luxury
Casual, athleisure, athletic wear
Formal, luxury
Makeup
β
β
π
4
24
Surveillance will increase, freedom decrease
Politics/Govt
β
People will trade liberty for security. Biometric and location tracking may increase.
Anti-police movement will accelerkate this as remote monitoring will replace some boots on the ground.
Tech companies (especially Chinese ones)
β
β
β
π
4
25
Distancing will make some things like flying much more expensive - business models may not make sense
Consumer
Entertainment
Transportation
Travel/Leisure
β
If people can only sit every other seat on flights or in stadiums, tickets will be much more expensive. Concerts, movie theaters, etc.
e.g. airlines need ~80% load factor to breakeven
This may not matter in a year or two once vaccine comes.
β
Consumer, airlines, movie theaters, oil, etc.
Others?
β
π
4
26
Yield becomes scarce
Financial
Real Estate
β
Corporate Conservatism > Building better balance sheets > Less buybacks and dividends > Less yield in the market.
Retired boomers like their portfolios to throw off cash. Where will it come from?
β
β
β
π
4
27
Legalization of Gambling/Marijuana and other vices
Politics/Govt
Travel/Leisure
Consumer
β
States are going to be desperate for Revenue; why not compromise on morals?
These industries
The poorest who can't afford these indulgences and lack the willpower to resist them
Could breaking down the alcohol barriers be next?
β
π
4
28
Fitness at home
Health
Real Estate
Consumer
Retail
More fitness at home vs. going to gyms and classes which was a big trend.
Peloton, Mirror, other digital classes, more workout equipment, running related.
Gyms, especially class based, retail real estate
β
@Services at home vs. outside the home
@Digital everything
π
4
29
US world leadership reduced
Globalization
Politics/Govt
β
Pulling back from trade and focusing on US. Plus failure on virus response.
China?
β
β
@China - more adversarial relationship
π
3
30
Lower birthrate
Family
β
People will have fewer kids as they think about being quarantined.
β
β
Aging of population in the time of increasing government debt is recipe for Japan stagnation over the entire world.
Plus, US has recently plugged the gap with immigration which may not continue
β
π
3
31
School childcare change? More home childcare vs. daycare, homeschooling
Education
K-12
Will people send their kids to daycare or hire more personal childcare? Tough to afford. More family care?
Wealthy hiring teachers for home pods
Working class needs schools open to be able to work. Maybe move more to charter schools?
Homeschooling
Charter schools?
Childcare centers
β
π
3
32
Pets - long - more people will want pets with more time at home
Consumer
β
β
HIgh end pet food, etc.
But not as much boarding
β
β
π
3
33
Acceleration of digitization of money/ killing of cash
Financial
Consumer
Globalization
β
Increasing digital interactions will also mean increasing exchange of digital money. Video conferencing and its descendents, AR and VR, will come equipped with methods for financial exchanges, even small ones. Plus think of the germs on a dollar bill.
PayPal, AliPay, WeChatPay, PayTM, blockchain,
Facebook? someone needs to win digital wallet in US.
Possibly Visa and Mastercard.
Technological advancements generally help everyone
Influencers will be able to have natural methods of collecting on their influence. (already happening in China; people "tip" content creators on major apps)
β
π
3
34
Internet CAC (Customer acquisition cost) will go up as more spending moves online
Consumer
Financial
β
CAC inflation with faster shift online.
GOOG, FB, etc.
Big brands who can navigate and afford it.
Digital marketing firms.
Shopify - other platforms.
Startups that rely on low CAC to make unit economics work.
β
β
π
3
35
Airlines will be challenged long-term even when safe because of less business travel
Travel/Leisure
Work
β
Business travel will be less because of video calls, etc. And business travel funds economy, so ticket prices will be much higher and reduce travel.
Drive-able vacations
Airlines, hotels, car rental
β
@Business travel will be reduced permanently. Easier to video call and don't have to fly.
@Remote work / work from home / telecommuting will accelerate
π
3
36
Oil stays low - gas prices low forever
Financial
Globalization
Energy
Personal/Household Legacy Energy
β
Autos?
Oil companies, Texas, Middle East
Slower move to electric?
Middle East unrest?
β
π
2
37
Hotels will come back better than Airbnb because of health concerns
Travel/Leisure
β
People will trust cleanliness of hotels over people's homes.
There is a counter argument. People will be vacationing in less dense places where there will be more airbnbs than hotels.
Hotels
Airbnb
Counter from airbnb - people will travel to more remote locations where there are no hotels.
People may "live remotely". Work from home and live diff places months at at time.
β
π
2
38
New social interaction norms - no handshakes, hugs - wearing masks
Social
In Person Interactions/Gatherings
May remove emotion based body language,
Computers
People
β
β
π
2
39
Nationalism will accelerate globally
Globalization
Politics/Govt
β
Accelerate the trend toward nationalism. Pull back from trade. In the US and globally.
β
β
Does European Union survive? Italy and Spain are likely in serious trouble either way.
β
π
2
40
iBuyers (Opendoor) and single family rental reits will benefit coming out of crisis
Real Estate
Housing
iBuyers benefit from social distancing - sellers don't have to show / buyers can visit empty homes.
Single family rental REITs will expand inventory with housing prices likely lower and will use iBuyers.
Consumer finances will be strained and iBuyers can facilitate sale leaseback transactions (from owning to renting but stay in the same house).
And benefit from more people moving to suburbs where homes are more similar and easier to price.
iBuyers, single family rental REITs
Real estate agents, related service providers like title
β
@Move to Suburbs and Regional Cities
π
2
41
State budgets are in deep trouble; property taxes rise to pay for schools and sales taxes go from 5% to 7+% on average impacting call but mostly the less fortunate and eroding everyone's savings
Financial
Real Estate
Education
Family
Government
Reduce municipal costs by combining town emergency call centers, reduce school footprint to having several grades only distance learning and test for aptitude. Are big K -12 schools and the admin all a big waste of cost?
Consulting companies. SaaS e-learning
β
Parents staying home if kids stay home will require business support
β
π
2
42
Proximity to home will matter a lot more
Transportation
Travel/Leisure
Work
Education
Family
Higher
People will want to travel less, especially by plane and public transportation.
Work closer to home.
Go to college closer to home.
Vacation within driving distance.
Local colleges.
Suburban office buildings.
Vacation homes, state parks, etc. vs. destination vacations.
Airlines, resorts, Vegas, etc.
β
@Remote work / work from home / telecommuting will accelerate
@Public transportation will be used less
π
2
43
Commercial Office space future?
Real Estate
Work
Commercial
Work from home will accelerate even if just a couple days per week.
More suburban vs. urban core?
Tenants will need more space per employee - trend had been shrinking dramatically.
Will that last or just be for ~2 years until pandemic subsides?
Co-working? Will people feel comfortable? They had also become a huge tenant.
Suburban
Office rates, especially urban
Co-working?
β
@Mass exodus from expensive urban centers
@Remote work / work from home / telecommuting will accelerate
π
2
44
Masks become accepted commonly and a part of fashion
Consumer
β
Government mandates will force masks to become ubiquitous. But, usage will remain long after. Have seen this in Asia from prior pandemics.
New designers
β
Currently seen as an attack on freedom and rights
β
π
2
45
Rates low forever
Real Estate
Financial
Politics/Govt
GovernmentHousing
Hard to know how rates wil go up. And how the increase in govt debt will affect inflation, etc.
β
β
β
β
π
1
46
Fewer in person interactions - those that are in person will be more special
Social
In Person Interactions/Gatherings
People are social creatures and will go back to meeting in person. But the risk will mean these interactions are much more special. So will risk it for a nice dinner with friends or church but not to sit in a movie theater staring at a screen when you could watch at home. And taking public transportation will increase risk so more local.
More unique gatherings like fine dining?
Maybe concerts (small) over sporting events which can easily be watched on TV.
Local destinations.
Mass gatherings without intimate connections like movie theaters
β
@Public transportation will be used less
π
1
47
Consumer savings will go up
Financial
Consumer
β
People will spend less and save more
Can buy govt debt which is exploding
Consumer goods, credit cards?
β
β
π
1
48
Milllenials will take less risk
Social
Financial
β
Started careers in financial crisis, now being hit again.
Saving, insurance? Multifamily rental. I dont know.
may cause fear?
Housing market
Less dynamic society. Moving less.
β
π
1
49
Social media will diversify and dominate
Social
β
Social species will have to learn how to be social in an increasingly digital world. Different platforms with more specific use cases will emerge.
Social media apps - not just incumbents
β
β
β
π
1
50
Digital Health and Tracking
Health
Wellness
People will want more real-time knowledge of their own health. Govts could also use to track as an early warning system.
Health tech companies
Old health tech companies commonly called EMR (Epic and Cerner are the biggest players)
β
β
π
1
51
Consumer and consumer spending will really suffer
Financial
Consumer
Personal/Household
Persistent high unemployment, more savings for those with money, higher prices for goods with near shoring, less spending on entertainment with social distancing.
β
Consumer credit cards
What else is highly levered to the consumer?
β
β
π
1
52
Travel and tourism economy will be stressed over next 5 years
Travel/Leisure
Transportation
β
Airlines will increase prices to adjust for fewer travelers and increase per passenger margins.
Airports will suspend CAPEX in the near-term due to demand reductions
Domestic travel (business and leisure) will be slow to recover as passengers will opt for closer travel destinations
International travel will be even slower to bounce backγΌespecially to tourist destinations hard hit by COVID-19, such as NYC. Expect significant demand reductions in all tourism business related activity (museums, restaurants/bars, retail, etc.)
β
Consumers, travel/tourism-reliant businesses
β
β
π
1
53
IoT infrastructure build out begins to organize and seep into insurance pricing and risk assessment
Financial
Consumer
Social
Health
Politics/Govt
β
IoT infrastructure will provide enhanced granular data on individuals, businesses and physical structures allowing more accurate underwriting and more efficient carrier operations.
Insurance carriers and the creme de la creme risks. IoT hardware and software tools. Insuretechs focused on new/unique risk data collection and claims processing.
Insureds with unwillingness or inability to change undesirable risk characteristics.
Potential perverse allocation of risk to those who are in most need of coverage.
β
π
1
54
Virtual networking and peer to peer learning.
Education
Social
In Person Interactions/Gatherings
People in the information economy will increasingly leverage online platforms to find one another and collaborate on ideas as shared physical spaces and commuting become less favored for their potential health consequences and time inefficiencies
Video, Text, Payments
Real estate, event businesses, centralized social platforms
accelerated innovation in the information economy
check out Mark Cuban offering to help small business owners on LinkedIn...100k+ comments and comment replies within a few days
π
1
55
Cannabis/marijuana will grow
Consumer
Health
β
Consumers will be at home more, go out less and will consume more cannabis.
Combined with states accelerating legalization because they need the tax revenue.
Cannabis
Alcohol?
Other health impacts
@Legalization of Gambling/Marijuana and other vices
@Less eating out, more cooking at home
π
1
56
Sharing economy down, professional/commercial services up
Consumer
Travel/Leisure
β
Consumers will not be comfortable sharing strangers homes (airbnb), cars (Turo, etc.) and other things because of health concerns. Maybe even Uber.
Professional sharing will go up though if can be validated and cleaned.
Hotels and similar.
Professional sharing e.g. equipment
Airbnb and similar
β
@Hotels will come back better than Airbnb because of health concerns
π
1
57
Decrease in formal education - esp. on campus
Education
Social
β
People unsure of what N12M look like and unwilling to spend money on credit at expensive colleges. Could take year off / realize what they can learn in world outside of formal education
Skilled trades, online learning, jobs that do not require college education
Universities
Lower rent, kids living at home while pursuing education, high entrepreneurship
@Higher education transformation - more remote learning, lower ranked colleges will suffer. More local.
π
1
58
Mass exodus from expensive urban centers
Real Estate
Housing
As remote work rises and companies become more flexible on where employees can live, remote workers will move to areas where they get a bigger bang for their buck. SF techies will trade their million dollar one bedroom condo for a mansion in North Carolina for a fraction of the price.
Smaller cities
Homeowners in urban centers
Housing prices in urban centers will go down
β
π
1
59
"Employee Experience" Shifts to "Employee Well-Being"
Work
Social
Family
β
HR and people teams will shift from experiential focuses based on largely centralized employee populations to more models that support more distributed employees and a broader focus on their overall well-being and health (mental, social, financial, etc.)
Employees, Technology Focused on Well-being, Companies (recruiting and retention for those who prioritize)
Believers that ping pong tables = culture, companies who don't adapt their thinking on holistic employee benefits
A collective increase of candidate expectations on benefits
π
1
60
Decline of big box retail will accelerate
Consumer
Real Estate
Retail
Macy's, for example, furloughed 125k workers. Is it really coming back? Neiman already Ch 11. "Showroom model" dead.
Online retail
Big box retail, commercial real estate investors
β
β
π
1
61
Increased car ownership in dense cities
Transportation
β
People value driving cars more over public transport/ride share
Auto manufacturers, auto insurance companies, parking lot owners
Rideshare, public transportation
β
β
π
1
62
Higher crime will be worse long-term for cities than COVID
Real Estate
Politics/Govt
β
COVID will get solved, but higher crime will drive more people from cities like NYC.
Suburbs, regional cities (e.g. Raleigh, Nashville, etc.)
Center city
β
β
π
1
63
β
β
β
β
β
β
β
β
π
1
64
β
β
β
β
β
β
β
β
π
0
65
Dating - how will it change? Might shift back more to known people vs. Tinder/random connections
Family
Social
In Person Interactions/Gatherings
More selective vs. shotgun approach?
β
Dating apps?
β
@Fewer in person interactions - those that are in person will be more special
π
0
66
Less political polarization? (can't quite believe this one)
Politics/Govt
β
Common enemy of the virus and solutions shouldn't be political.
β
β
β
β
π
0
67
Less regulation? Licensing, FDA, etc.
Politics/Govt
Work
β
Could necessity spur less regulation like occupational licensing.
Individuals
Incumbents - occupations that use licensing to limit competition
β
β
π
0
68
Virtual/augmented reality will grow for work and entertainment
Consumer
Entertainment
Work
Social
β
Seems pretty obvious. The tradoffs of a worse AR/VR experience are weighed against risks of in person.
AR meetings could be better than zoom.
VR
β
β
β
π
0
69
Climate Change - will virus spur more attention on preventing climate disaster (probably not)
Globalization
Health
Politics/Govt
Energy
Green Energy
We were not prepared for the virus. Will that lead us to try to be more prepared for climate change? Seems unlikely politically and because we won't have the money to pay for it.
Green energy, nuclear
Coal, oil
β
β
π
0
70
High Yield Bond Asset Class Returns
Financial
β
In every recession bankrupcy risk increases, thus bond yields increase. Sharks will circle those waters and high yield will return as an asset class that has been mostly ignored since the spread between IG and HY was not worth the risk.
Debt Managers; PE
β
β
β
π
0
71
Lower marriage rates / household formation
Financial
Family
Real Estate
Personal/Household Housing
Economic impact will further delay or reduce marriage and household formation which has wide ranging impacts.
Multi-family
Single family homes (purchases)
Lower birthrate
β
π
0
72
Lower immigration to US
Globalization
Politics/Govt
Trade
Rising nationalism politically, more opportunity for Central Americans in Mexico from nearshoring, less travel generally, fewer immigrants wanting to move to US?
Domestic workforce (maybe)
Money transfer
Lower population growth and GDP
@Nationalism will accelerate globally
@Supply chains will be simplified - more domestic
π
0
73
β
Globalization
β
β
β
β
β
β
π
0
74
Once vaccine and treatments are developed, fear of pandemic will subside.
Health
Education
Consumer
Entertainment
Family
Social
β
With certain key differences which become embedded in policy (e.g. less reliance on international trade for key assets) the pandemic will fade from concern as it is a once-a-century event.
Small number of domestic producers which now have a captive market to manufacture key goods.
Small impact on taxes and inflation for key goods which will be more expensive sourced domestically.
β
β
π
0
75
New focus on consistent social hygiene will accelerate ESG investment and awareness
Energy
Politics/Govt
Real Estate
Health
Transportation
Consumer
β
Investment in infrastructure, healthcare, consumer goods, insurance, and energy will increasingly view sustainability as a long-term competitive advantage.
Products and services that promote their sustainable features in production, distribution and utilization.
Product and services that have been extremely entrenched in our society yet were damaging to the environment and required a black swan event such as COVID to push change.
General societal permanent changes in hygienic behavior that we never thought possible.
β
π
0
76
Casinos/gaming challenged (other than online) - not sure about Macau
Travel/Leisure
Entertainment
β
Social distancing, less travel, fewer conventions, etc. will challenge Las Vegas.
States need revenue and will open up more to gambling.
Shift to online.
Online gaming
Physical casinos, Las Vegas.
β
β
π
0
77
Defense spending both for weapons systems (ships, tanks etc) and cyber capabilities will increase.
Politics/Govt
β
As the relationship with China becomes more adversarial we will enter a new Cold War.
Defense industry, Tech Industry, our allies in Pacific such as Japan.
Domestic spending, the US Debt.
β
π
0
78
Higher scrutiny of education quality
Education
K-12
Parents will be more knowledgeable of learning experience for kids leading to becoming more informed and opinionated about the quality of education being offered by a school and better equipped to make a decision of how to improve educational experience. More relevant for lower K-[Middle School?]
Affordable i) private schools or ii) communities with good education systems
Potentially many public schools and over priced private schools
β
β
π
0
79
Go long Apartments
Real Estate
Housing
people who were saving up for a home just saw their savings get eroded
debt equity holders on apartments
middle income homes
β
β
π
0
80
Data Centers
Real Estate
Energy
β
more work being sent to the cloud computing increasing need for more hyperscale locations and buildings with lower cost energy
Hyperscale cloud provider and service/infrastructure to support
owners of smaller data centers with higher costs of power.
office real estate is oversupplied and companies will sell their small data centers and utlize the cloud more.
π
0
81
HODL Bitcoin
Financial
Real Estate
β
Money supply has exploded. Once society gets out of survival mode back to work more will want a store of value that has a known supply. No HS/college want gold. Most i speak with want crypto and after looking at crypto, Bitcoin is the best.
Bitcoin
Fiat, Gold.
As Bitcoin market increases more bright minds from Oil and Gas/ other industries will be attracted to lower the cost of power to support the Bitcoin mining network. this will usher in the next wave of energy innovation and benefit the world to a degree we cannot imagine.
β
π
0
82
β
Financial
β
β
β
β
β
β
π
0
83
Open-Source Transforms Human Resources
Work
Social
β
The increased open-source collaboration and sharing demonstrated during COVID-19 dramatically accelerates the shift in HR and people teams moving beyond silo's to work openly/collaborative, accelerating innovation in the field.
Companies who embrace open-source, employees, people departments
Legacy HR Dogma
β
π
0
84
One-time big correction in commercial real estate values in dense cities (esp. NYC)
Real Estate
Commercial
Lower density will be needed across the board so no other options. Tenants will need to pay same $ amount for same amount of space. Zoning makes it hard to shift commercial space to residential
Commercial tenants relative to what they would be otherwise but not better than they were pre-crisis
Commercial real estate investors
Fewer businesses in compact area increases transportation needs
β
π
0
85
Outdoor playgrounds, including bounce houses and trampoline sales
Consumer
Family
Health
Kids Wellness
Families are scrambling to keep kids occupied and active while at home
Playground, trampoline, bounce house manufacturers & vendors. Also, homes will larger backyards will be seen at an even higher premium to accommodate these new lifestyle trends.
Parks, amusement parks
Children inevitably get more injuries as they bring playgrounds into their own homes.
π
0
86
β
β
β
β
β
β
β
β
π
0
87
β
β
β
β
β
β
β
β
π
0
88
β
β
β
β
β
β
β
β
π
0
89
β
β
β
β
β
β
β
β
π
0
90
β
β
β
β
β
β
β
β
π
0
91
β
Entertainment
β
β
β
β
β
β
π
0
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65
Count
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