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Governance Capture Risk

Governance Capture Risk Matrix

Quantified Concentration & Influence Monitoring

Purpose

Define measurable thresholds that detect governance capture before structural collapse occurs.

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I. Capture Risk Indicators

A. Influence Concentration

Metric:

Holder Influence % = holder_weight / total_weight

Threshold Bands:

0–10% → Normal

10–20% → Monitor

20–33% → Elevated Risk

33% → High Risk

50% → Critical

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B. Delegation Clustering

Metric:

Total weight under a single delegate chain

Flags:

25% delegated to one identity → Elevated

40% → High

60% → Critical

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C. Participation Density Collapse

Metric:

Active Voters / Eligible Voters

<60% → Monitor

<40% → Elevated

<25% → Critical

D. Weight-to-Contribution Divergence

Metric

(weight / contribution_units)

Outlier detection required when:

2 standard deviations from mean

II. Risk Severity Mapping

II. Risk Severity Mapping

Severity

System Response

Low

Log only

Elevated

Oversight review

High

Lifecycle freeze on federation

Critical

Treasury restriction + emergency review

There are no rows in this table

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III. Automatic Constraints

If Critical:

Suspend new governance weight issuance

Trigger oversight vote

Freeze federation activation

Flag Lifecycle Engine

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Structural Function

The matrix converts capture from abstract concern into measurable condition.

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