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Simulator

A calculator to estimate the number of potential COVID-19 cases in a community. For informational purposes only.

Background: Estimating true cases in a community

The inspiration for this simulator came from and of one of the key points: That it can be very tricky to estimate the true cases in a community, but you can work backwards from the number of deaths reported today. Try the simulation below, or unfold these writeups for a quick synopsis.

excerpt

Tomas observed that the observed cases on Hubei were significantly less than the actual cases being reported. This is the relevant chart:
image.png

recap


Set parameters for the simulation:

Infection to death:
00
14
days
Mortality rate:
0
1
% implies
100
original cases per death today
Doubling rate:
00
3
days implies
23.1
% daily growth
Deaths observed on day N:
000
1
implies there are
1,491
cases today
Chart of Simulated data
1

Simulated data table
1
Date
Day #
# of currentCases
Bar
1
9/22
-13
100
2
9/23
-12
123
3
9/24
-11
152
4
9/25
-10
187
5
9/26
-9
230
6
9/27
-8
283
7
9/28
-7
348
8
9/29
-6
428
9
9/30
-5
527
10
10/1
-4
649
11
10/2
-3
799
12
10/3
-2
984
13
10/4
-1
1,211
14
10/5
0
1,491
15
10/6
1
1,835
16
10/7
2
2,259
17
10/8
3
2,781
18
10/9
4
3,423
19
10/10
5
4,214
20
10/11
6
5,187
21
10/12
7
6,385
There are no rows in this table

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