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Simulator

A calculator to estimate the number of potential COVID-19 cases in a community. For informational purposes only.
Background: Estimating true cases in a community
The inspiration for this simulator came from
⁠
and
⁠
of one of the key points: That it can be very tricky to estimate the true cases in a community, but you can work backwards from the number of deaths reported today. Try the simulation below, or unfold these writeups for a quick synopsis.
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⁠
excerpt
Tomas observed that the observed cases on Hubei were significantly less than the actual cases being reported. This is the relevant chart:
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image.png
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recap
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Set parameters for the simulation:
Infection to death:
00
14
⁠
days
Mortality rate:
0
1
⁠
% implies
100
⁠
original cases per death today
Doubling rate:
00
3
⁠
days implies
23.1
⁠
% daily growth
Deaths observed on day N:
000
1
⁠
implies there are
1,491
⁠
cases today
Chart of Simulated data
1
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Simulated data table
1
Search
Date
Day #
# of currentCases
Bar
1
9/10
-13
100
2
9/11
-12
123
3
9/12
-11
152
4
9/13
-10
187
5
9/14
-9
230
6
9/15
-8
283
7
9/16
-7
348
8
9/17
-6
428
9
9/18
-5
527
10
9/19
-4
649
11
9/20
-3
799
12
9/21
-2
984
13
9/22
-1
1,211
14
9/23
0
1,491
15
9/24
1
1,835
16
9/25
2
2,259
17
9/26
3
2,781
18
9/27
4
3,423
19
9/28
5
4,214
20
9/29
6
5,187
21
9/30
7
6,385
There are no rows in this table
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