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Simulator
A calculator to estimate the number of potential COVID-19 cases in a community. For informational purposes only.
AC
Al Chen
Background: Estimating true cases in a community
The inspiration for this simulator came from
Tomas Pueyo's excellent Medium article
and
Sal Khan's great video recap
of one of the key points: That it can be very tricky to estimate the true cases in a community, but you can work backwards from the number of deaths reported today. Try the simulation below, or unfold these writeups for a quick synopsis.
Tomas Pueyo's article
excerpt
Tomas observed that the observed cases on Hubei were significantly less than the actual cases being reported. This is the relevant chart:
Sal Khan's video
recap
Set parameters for the simulation:
Infection to death:
00
14
days
Mortality rate:
0
1
% implies
100
original cases per death today
Doubling rate:
00
3
days implies
23.1
% daily growth
Deaths observed on day N:
000
1
implies there are
1,491
cases today
Chart of Simulated data
Chart of Simulated data
1
Simulated data table
Simulated data table
1
Date
Day #
# of currentCases
Bar
Date
Day #
# of currentCases
Bar
1
7/24
-13
100
2
7/25
-12
123
3
7/26
-11
152
4
7/27
-10
187
5
7/28
-9
230
6
7/29
-8
283
7
7/30
-7
348
8
7/31
-6
428
9
8/1
-5
527
10
8/2
-4
649
11
8/3
-3
799
12
8/4
-2
984
13
8/5
-1
1,211
14
8/6
0
1,491
15
8/7
1
1,835
16
8/8
2
2,259
17
8/9
3
2,781
18
8/10
4
3,423
19
8/11
5
4,214
20
8/12
6
5,187
21
8/13
7
6,385
There are no rows in this table
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