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Simulator

A calculator to estimate the number of potential COVID-19 cases in a community. For informational purposes only.
Background: Estimating true cases in a community
The inspiration for this simulator came from
⁠
and
⁠
of one of the key points: That it can be very tricky to estimate the true cases in a community, but you can work backwards from the number of deaths reported today. Try the simulation below, or unfold these writeups for a quick synopsis.

⁠
⁠
excerpt
Tomas observed that the observed cases on Hubei were significantly less than the actual cases being reported. This is the relevant chart:

⁠
image.png
⁠
⁠



⁠
⁠
recap
⁠
⁠
⁠



Set parameters for the simulation:
Infection to death:
00
14
⁠
days
Mortality rate:
0
1
⁠
% implies
100
⁠
original cases per death today
Doubling rate:
00
3
⁠
days implies
23.1
⁠
% daily growth
Deaths observed on day N:
000
1
⁠
implies there are
1,491
⁠
cases today

Chart of Simulated data
1
Created with Highcharts 9.3.1Day ## of currentCasesBefore TodayTodayAfter Today-13-12-11-10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-10123456705001000150020002500300035004000450050005500600065007000
⁠

Simulated data table
1
Search
Date
Day #
# of currentCases
Bar
1
12/26
-13
100
2
12/27
-12
123
3
12/28
-11
152
4
12/29
-10
187
5
12/30
-9
230
6
12/31
-8
283
7
1/1
-7
348
8
1/2
-6
428
9
1/3
-5
527
10
1/4
-4
649
11
1/5
-3
799
12
1/6
-2
984
13
1/7
-1
1,211
14
1/8
0
1,491
15
1/9
1
1,835
16
1/10
2
2,259
17
1/11
3
2,781
18
1/12
4
3,423
19
1/13
5
4,214
20
1/14
6
5,187
21
1/15
7
6,385
There are no rows in this table
⁠


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