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Simulator

A calculator to estimate the number of potential COVID-19 cases in a community. For informational purposes only.

Background: Estimating true cases in a community

The inspiration for this simulator came from
and
of one of the key points: That it can be very tricky to estimate the true cases in a community, but you can work backwards from the number of deaths reported today. Try the simulation below, or unfold these writeups for a quick synopsis.

excerpt

recap


Set parameters for the simulation:

Infection to death:
00
14
days
Mortality rate:
0
1
% implies
100
original cases per death today
Doubling rate:
00
3
days implies
23.1
% daily growth
Deaths observed on day N:
000
1
implies there are
1,491
cases today

Chart of Simulated data
1
Created with Highcharts 9.2.2Day ## of currentCasesBefore TodayTodayAfter Today-13-12-11-10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-10123456702k4k6k8k

Simulated data table
1
Date
Day #
# of currentCases
Bar
1
3/2
-13
100
2
3/3
-12
123
3
3/4
-11
152
4
3/5
-10
187
5
3/6
-9
230
6
3/7
-8
283
7
3/8
-7
348
8
3/9
-6
428
9
3/10
-5
527
10
3/11
-4
649
11
3/12
-3
799
12
3/13
-2
984
13
3/14
-1
1,211
14
3/15
0
1,491
15
3/16
1
1,835
16
3/17
2
2,259
17
3/18
3
2,781
18
3/19
4
3,423
19
3/20
5
4,214
20
3/21
6
5,187
21
3/22
7
6,385
There are no rows in this table


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