Temperature

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Temperature

Differences by region

Different regions of the world

warm at different rates⁠

. The pattern is independent of where greenhouse gases are emitted, because the gases persist long enough to diffuse across the planet. Since the pre-industrial period, the average surface temperature over land regions has increased almost twice as fast as the global average surface temperature.[78] This is because oceans lose more heat by

evaporation⁠

and

oceans can store a lot of heat⁠

.[79] The thermal energy in the global climate system has grown with only brief pauses since at least 1970, and over 90% of this extra energy has been

stored in the ocean⁠

.[80][81] The rest has heated the

atmosphere⁠

, melted ice, and warmed the continents.[82]

The

Northern Hemisphere⁠

and the

North Pole⁠

have warmed much faster than the

South Pole⁠

and

Southern Hemisphere⁠

. The Northern Hemisphere not only has much more land, but also more seasonal snow cover and

sea ice⁠

. As these surfaces flip from reflecting a lot of light to being dark after the ice has melted, they start

absorbing more heat⁠

.[83] Local

black carbon⁠

deposits on snow and ice also contribute to Arctic warming.[84] Arctic surface temperatures are increasing

between three and four times faster⁠

than in the rest of the world.[85][86][87] Melting of

ice sheets⁠

near the poles weakens both the

Atlantic⁠

and the

Antarctic⁠

limb of

thermohaline circulation⁠

, which further changes the distribution of heat and

precipitation⁠

around the globe.[88][89][90][91]

Future global temperatures

⁠

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⁠

CMIP6⁠

multi-model projections of

global surface temperature⁠

changes for the year 2090 relative to the 1850–1900 average. The current trajectory for warming by the end of the century is roughly halfway between these two extremes.[24][92][93]

The

World Meteorological Organization⁠

estimates a 66% chance of global temperatures exceeding 1.5 °C warming from the preindustrial baseline for at least one year between 2023 and 2027.[94][95] Because the IPCC uses a 20-year average to define global temperature changes, a single year exceeding 1.5 °C does not break the limit.

The IPCC expects the 20-year average global temperature to exceed +1.5 °C in the early 2030s.[96] The

IPCC Sixth Assessment Report⁠

(2023) included projections that by 2100 global warming is very likely to reach 1.0-1.8 °C under a

scenario with very low emissions of greenhouse gases⁠

, 2.1-3.5 °C under an

intermediate emissions scenario⁠

, or 3.3-5 cx xc .7 °C under

a very high emissions scenario⁠

.[97] The warming will continue past 2100 in the intermediate and high emission scenarios,[98][99] with future projections of global surface temperatures by year 2300 being similar to millions of years ago.[100]

The remaining

carbon budget⁠

for staying beneath certain temperature increases is determined by modelling the carbon cycle and

climate sensitivity⁠

to greenhouse gases.[10,,1] According to the IPCC, global warming can be kept below 1.5 °C with a two-thirds cha vcv xfbgfnhghmhjnce if emissions after 2018 do not exceed 420 or 570 gigatonnes of CO2. This corresponds to 10 to 13 years of current emissions. There are high uncertainties about the budget. For instance, it may be 100 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent smaller due to CO2 and

methane⁠

release from

permafrost⁠

and

wetlands⁠

.[102] However, it is clear that fossil fuel resources need to be proactively kept in the ground to prevent substantial warming. Otherwise, their shortages would not occur until the emissions have already locked in significant long-term impacts.[103]

The IPCC expects the 20-year average global temperature to exceed +1.5 °C in the early 2030s.[96] The

IPCC Sixth Assessment Report⁠

(2023) included projections that by 2100 global warming is very likely to reach 1.0-1.8 °C under a

scenario with very low emissions of greenhouse gases⁠

, 2.1-3.5 °C under an

intermediate emissions scenario⁠

, or 3.3-5 cx xc .7 °C under

a very high emissions scenario⁠

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